Quote Originally Posted by makavelilives:
Any input appreciated. Thanks.
If you want to maximize your long-term profits, do NOT hedge.
Many posters here will tell you to take the "guaranteed" money. Well, taking "guaranteed money" is not always a smart move, and I can prove it with a simple example:
Let's say a team you bet on, that was favored by just a point, is leading by two touchdowns with just a minute or two left to go in the game. If they cover the spread, which it look like they will almost certainly, you win $1,000.00.
I come along and offer to buy your ticket for $500, right here and now. Do you sell it to me?
If your answer is no, they why not? I'm offering you guaranteed money right now! Anything could still happen in this game!
Well, of course you shouldn't sell it to me or anyone else. Not for $500. Not for $600. Not for $700. Not even for $800. The reason is simple - that ticket, at this moment in time, is worth much more than this. (Depending upon exact game scenario, it's probably worth upwards of $990.00.)
This is EXACTLY what happens when you hedge. You sell something for less than what it's worth. You normally do NOT want to do this, whether you're selling or a car or a house or whatever.
Hedging comes at a price and you have to pay that price.
You will make more money in a very short period of time if you never hedge. To put it another way, if you and I bet on the same teams/games, and you hedge whenever you can and I never hedge, I will very soon have more money than you. Maybe not that weekend... maybe not that month... but very soon.
Too many players here want to be a winner after each "weekend." Hedging will give them that.
FORGET "weekend." Think "lifetime" or "season."
Another example: Blackjack players should NOT take insurance when it is offered, when they themselves have a blackjack. You can find this topic and the reason why in any blackjack book. But why not? If you take insurance, you're guaranteed a win! In fact, the dealer will pay you immediately!
The reason, again, is if you do take insurance you're basically selling your hand for less than what it is worth. More often than not the dealer will NOT have a ten in the hole. And when that happens your own blackjack will pay 1.5 to 1. Thus, you should not settle for the guaranteed 1 to 1 payout. (If you're counting cards and the ratio of non-tens to tens to left in the deck falls below 2 to 1, it becomes worthwhile.)
Finally, if you hedge, then why in the world did you put that last, late game on the card in the first place? Arrgh! You should have just left it off completely! If you had left it off, you'd now already have your "guaranteed" money and could now bet all of it, or a portion of it, on this late game, if desired.
Hedging comes at a price and you have to pay that price.
As was said so well in this epic thread,
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779
"If you find yourself in a POSITION to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error."
If the amount is life-changing amount of money, I can understand why you would hedge. If the GAME CONDITIONS have changed (the starting quarterback gets hit by a bus on the way to the game) then you can and often should hedge. But otherwise, be aware you are giving selling your ticket for LESS than what it is worth.
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