The absurd thing about this regression approach for the Giants game is: If the Cowboys would have lost in OT against the Texans last year, which would have made them a 11-5 team rather than 12-4, he wouldn't bet the Giants, because the pythagorean differential would be too low.
Or if the Giants would have held the lead against the 2-14 Jaguars rather than blowing a 21-0 lead (indication for being a bad team?), he wouldn't bet the Giants.
Did you HAVE to bring that game up Suuma????
I look up and down the week1 lines and this line is by far the most confounding. I expected -7.5, not -5.5!
I have no idea how the Giants are going to defend the pass. Their secondary is absolutely horrific.
Then you have all the unanswered questions nahaww brought up.
I feel like the Giants are as shaky as they were last year when they implemented the West Coast offense and went out in week 1, also on the road, and got smashed by the Lions.
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
The absurd thing about this regression approach for the Giants game is: If the Cowboys would have lost in OT against the Texans last year, which would have made them a 11-5 team rather than 12-4, he wouldn't bet the Giants, because the pythagorean differential would be too low.
Or if the Giants would have held the lead against the 2-14 Jaguars rather than blowing a 21-0 lead (indication for being a bad team?), he wouldn't bet the Giants.
Did you HAVE to bring that game up Suuma????
I look up and down the week1 lines and this line is by far the most confounding. I expected -7.5, not -5.5!
I have no idea how the Giants are going to defend the pass. Their secondary is absolutely horrific.
Then you have all the unanswered questions nahaww brought up.
I feel like the Giants are as shaky as they were last year when they implemented the West Coast offense and went out in week 1, also on the road, and got smashed by the Lions.
Can you also give us any logical reasons to take the Giants? I would also like to see which matchups in recent years you are referring to with te 16-2 ATS record, especially the two losing games.
Last season, Lions -6.5 over Giants, won 35-14
Raiders +6.5 over Jets lost SU 19-14, by 5.
2013
Saints -3.5 over Falcons won 23-17
Lions -4 over Vikes, won 34-24
SD +5 VS Texans lost SU 31-28 by 3.
2008 was last loss, Vikes +1 VS Packers lost 24-19
2006 Packers VS Bears lost 26-0, only 2 losses, and it picked many surprise teams most were against.
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Can you also give us any logical reasons to take the Giants? I would also like to see which matchups in recent years you are referring to with te 16-2 ATS record, especially the two losing games.
Last season, Lions -6.5 over Giants, won 35-14
Raiders +6.5 over Jets lost SU 19-14, by 5.
2013
Saints -3.5 over Falcons won 23-17
Lions -4 over Vikes, won 34-24
SD +5 VS Texans lost SU 31-28 by 3.
2008 was last loss, Vikes +1 VS Packers lost 24-19
2006 Packers VS Bears lost 26-0, only 2 losses, and it picked many surprise teams most were against.
I look up and down the week1 lines and this line is by far the most confounding. I expected -7.5, not -5.5!
I have no idea how the Giants are going to defend the pass. Their secondary is absolutely horrific.
Then you have all the unanswered questions nahaww brought up.
I feel like the Giants are as shaky as they were last year when they implemented the West Coast offense and went out in week 1, also on the road, and got smashed by the Lions.
The reason it's confusing is because the books know the same thing, they are shading the line to look like a easy Dallas cover.
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Did you HAVE to bring that game up Suuma????
I look up and down the week1 lines and this line is by far the most confounding. I expected -7.5, not -5.5!
I have no idea how the Giants are going to defend the pass. Their secondary is absolutely horrific.
Then you have all the unanswered questions nahaww brought up.
I feel like the Giants are as shaky as they were last year when they implemented the West Coast offense and went out in week 1, also on the road, and got smashed by the Lions.
The reason it's confusing is because the books know the same thing, they are shading the line to look like a easy Dallas cover.
The absurd thing about this regression approach for the Giants game is: If the Cowboys would have lost in OT against the Texans last year, which would have made them a 11-5 team rather than 12-4, he wouldn't bet the Giants, because the pythagorean differential would be too low.
Or if the Giants would have held the lead against the 2-14 Jaguars rather than blowing a 21-0 lead (indication for being a bad team?), he wouldn't bet the Giants.
If Dallas lost they would have a smaller point margin which changes their expected wins, so it's entirely possible the method still takes the Giants.
But that's the very point your missing, that close win is indicative of to much luck when combined with other close wins and what it tells you, because they won 12 games that their not as good as a 12 win team and not likely to win as many close games.
Very possible this game is close and Dallas's luck in close games runs out.
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
The absurd thing about this regression approach for the Giants game is: If the Cowboys would have lost in OT against the Texans last year, which would have made them a 11-5 team rather than 12-4, he wouldn't bet the Giants, because the pythagorean differential would be too low.
Or if the Giants would have held the lead against the 2-14 Jaguars rather than blowing a 21-0 lead (indication for being a bad team?), he wouldn't bet the Giants.
If Dallas lost they would have a smaller point margin which changes their expected wins, so it's entirely possible the method still takes the Giants.
But that's the very point your missing, that close win is indicative of to much luck when combined with other close wins and what it tells you, because they won 12 games that their not as good as a 12 win team and not likely to win as many close games.
Very possible this game is close and Dallas's luck in close games runs out.
Giants are also the largest mismatch in close wins, And when a team qualifies in 2 of 3 regression methods 18-4 ATS past 6 years, don't have past 10 years at my finger tips at the moment. That's almost 82%.
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Giants are also the largest mismatch in close wins, And when a team qualifies in 2 of 3 regression methods 18-4 ATS past 6 years, don't have past 10 years at my finger tips at the moment. That's almost 82%.
If Dallas lost they would have a smaller point margin which changes their expected wins, so it's entirely possible the method still takes the Giants.
But that's the very point your missing, that close win is indicative of to much luck when combined with other close wins and what it tells you, because they won 12 games that their not as good as a 12 win team and not likely to win as many close games.
Very possible this game is close and Dallas's luck in close games runs out.
Your "system" is flawed on many levels ... but I will only point out one.
Where do you take into consideration changes in personnel?
Is it safe to assume that Dallas is probably improved? I think so.
Is it safe to assume the Ginats have less talent than last year? I think so.
But according to your method, this has no bearing on who will win/cover.
Flawed
bigreds daddy
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
If Dallas lost they would have a smaller point margin which changes their expected wins, so it's entirely possible the method still takes the Giants.
But that's the very point your missing, that close win is indicative of to much luck when combined with other close wins and what it tells you, because they won 12 games that their not as good as a 12 win team and not likely to win as many close games.
Very possible this game is close and Dallas's luck in close games runs out.
Your "system" is flawed on many levels ... but I will only point out one.
Where do you take into consideration changes in personnel?
Is it safe to assume that Dallas is probably improved? I think so.
Is it safe to assume the Ginats have less talent than last year? I think so.
But according to your method, this has no bearing on who will win/cover.
I know they lost last season but look at the previous 5 meetings in Dallas. Eli tore them up. Always that potential.. you are better off with the over if Giants defense is so bad. Giants can score if Victor Cruz is healthy..
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I know they lost last season but look at the previous 5 meetings in Dallas. Eli tore them up. Always that potential.. you are better off with the over if Giants defense is so bad. Giants can score if Victor Cruz is healthy..
i hate the giants d but i also hate the fact that victor cruz seemingly eats the cowboys secondary for breakfast every time they play.....will neeed to think this one through more
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i hate the giants d but i also hate the fact that victor cruz seemingly eats the cowboys secondary for breakfast every time they play.....will neeed to think this one through more
Look at the last five times they've played in Dallas? That is five years worth of info. That is including so many different players than are on these two squads.
All you really need to know about these two teams is that one is at the peak of its powers, and another is hitting rock bottom. You want to put your money on a prayer? I'm not stopping you. Dallas wins. Dallas covers.
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Look at the last five times they've played in Dallas? That is five years worth of info. That is including so many different players than are on these two squads.
All you really need to know about these two teams is that one is at the peak of its powers, and another is hitting rock bottom. You want to put your money on a prayer? I'm not stopping you. Dallas wins. Dallas covers.
im a cowboys fan and i got 11 out of 12 games right i bet on them last year including both eagles games. giants will score on us but i dont think they will keep up look for huge scoring performance first week by cowboys my predictions 34-17 over under is a toss up but usually take overs in cowboys games not this week as defenses are always a step a head of offenses although all of our guys know the system well and giants are still trying to mesh
cowboys huge first week!!!! id take this line at -9.5
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im a cowboys fan and i got 11 out of 12 games right i bet on them last year including both eagles games. giants will score on us but i dont think they will keep up look for huge scoring performance first week by cowboys my predictions 34-17 over under is a toss up but usually take overs in cowboys games not this week as defenses are always a step a head of offenses although all of our guys know the system well and giants are still trying to mesh
cowboys huge first week!!!! id take this line at -9.5
Your "system" is flawed on many levels ... but I will only point out one.
Where do you take into consideration changes in personnel?
Is it safe to assume that Dallas is probably improved? I think so.
Is it safe to assume the Ginats have less talent than last year? I think so.
But according to your method, this has no bearing on who will win/cover.
Flawed
Yes, it does not take that into consideration and sometimes those type things can make a difference.
However, remember that that info will be available to all, so it will be reflected in the line for the game and the key players like Romo that impact the game the most still remain the key player.
And the method has never once finished with a losing record in past 10 years, and it's finished with at least 2 games over .500 in 7 of those 10 years, so flawed ?
If you can produce such a record without flawed info I'd sure like to see it.....................
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Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:
Your "system" is flawed on many levels ... but I will only point out one.
Where do you take into consideration changes in personnel?
Is it safe to assume that Dallas is probably improved? I think so.
Is it safe to assume the Ginats have less talent than last year? I think so.
But according to your method, this has no bearing on who will win/cover.
Flawed
Yes, it does not take that into consideration and sometimes those type things can make a difference.
However, remember that that info will be available to all, so it will be reflected in the line for the game and the key players like Romo that impact the game the most still remain the key player.
And the method has never once finished with a losing record in past 10 years, and it's finished with at least 2 games over .500 in 7 of those 10 years, so flawed ?
If you can produce such a record without flawed info I'd sure like to see it.....................
I have alot of football knowledge and have no motivation on who wins this game so lets debate....
If Giants get JPP back that helps. Also I doubt it, but they are trying to get Kam Chancellor as well. I'm a cardinals fan so I would love this cuz it gets him off SEA.
Yes Cruz is out. Randle is a very good backup wr. I would say that Scandrick is DAL's best CB and whoever isn't on Bechkam can have issue with the TE Donnell or Randle. Additionally, anyone on Beckham can have issues with Beckham obviously.
Rashad Jennings played moderately well last year and Shane Vereen is a good pickup for NYG. I know DAL oline is awesome but I'm not sold on Randle till I see him perform for a whole game.
Giants will have trouble with DEZ as always. IMO this should be a relatively high scoring game. If one were to take the giants, it would be for the reason that Randle doesn't run the ball great initially and so Romo starts forcing passes that lead to INTs. Thats how dal loses. Or they settle for fgs cuz Randle can't score TDs in the redzone despite having a great line.
If I were to predict the score I would obviously go Cowboys...27-19. But like I said if Romo screws up thats how they lose.
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I have alot of football knowledge and have no motivation on who wins this game so lets debate....
If Giants get JPP back that helps. Also I doubt it, but they are trying to get Kam Chancellor as well. I'm a cardinals fan so I would love this cuz it gets him off SEA.
Yes Cruz is out. Randle is a very good backup wr. I would say that Scandrick is DAL's best CB and whoever isn't on Bechkam can have issue with the TE Donnell or Randle. Additionally, anyone on Beckham can have issues with Beckham obviously.
Rashad Jennings played moderately well last year and Shane Vereen is a good pickup for NYG. I know DAL oline is awesome but I'm not sold on Randle till I see him perform for a whole game.
Giants will have trouble with DEZ as always. IMO this should be a relatively high scoring game. If one were to take the giants, it would be for the reason that Randle doesn't run the ball great initially and so Romo starts forcing passes that lead to INTs. Thats how dal loses. Or they settle for fgs cuz Randle can't score TDs in the redzone despite having a great line.
If I were to predict the score I would obviously go Cowboys...27-19. But like I said if Romo screws up thats how they lose.
The reason it's confusing is because the books know the same thing, they are shading the line to look like a easy Dallas cover.
No, you're confusing yourself by looking deeply into meaningless trends and believing the nonsense theory that books take positions on games.
ATS trends are made freely available because they are worthless. Books don't share/trick/pretend on lines... they balance their overround action while we (the market) take the positions.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
The reason it's confusing is because the books know the same thing, they are shading the line to look like a easy Dallas cover.
No, you're confusing yourself by looking deeply into meaningless trends and believing the nonsense theory that books take positions on games.
ATS trends are made freely available because they are worthless. Books don't share/trick/pretend on lines... they balance their overround action while we (the market) take the positions.
Don't know if I agree Thorpe. Some teams are just better. Over time, the better teams win. In one instance it's true any given sunday, as the saying goes, but to ignore talent is absurd.
Some teams are better than others, but almost every team in the NFL is within 10 points of each other on a power rating. That means a team only needs one pick-six to win a game they shouldn't win.
In college, many teams are 20 to 40 points apart on power ratings. A team needs a whole series of fluke plays to win a game like this.
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Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:
Don't know if I agree Thorpe. Some teams are just better. Over time, the better teams win. In one instance it's true any given sunday, as the saying goes, but to ignore talent is absurd.
Some teams are better than others, but almost every team in the NFL is within 10 points of each other on a power rating. That means a team only needs one pick-six to win a game they shouldn't win.
In college, many teams are 20 to 40 points apart on power ratings. A team needs a whole series of fluke plays to win a game like this.
2007 Spagnoula's first game as defensive coordinator was at Dallas on sunday night, dallas scored 45. Giants d didn't have a grasp on the system yet
2015 Spagnoula is back in his first game as dc at dallas on sunday night. Giants D is a mess, not at full strength and probably doesn't have a grasp on his schemes. Dallas should put up 35-40. Cruz is not playing. Giants will come around later in the year but week one looks like Dallas 38- Giants 24.
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Deja vu
2007 Spagnoula's first game as defensive coordinator was at Dallas on sunday night, dallas scored 45. Giants d didn't have a grasp on the system yet
2015 Spagnoula is back in his first game as dc at dallas on sunday night. Giants D is a mess, not at full strength and probably doesn't have a grasp on his schemes. Dallas should put up 35-40. Cruz is not playing. Giants will come around later in the year but week one looks like Dallas 38- Giants 24.
I have alot of football knowledge and have no motivation on who wins this game so lets debate....
If Giants get JPP back that helps. Also I doubt it, but they are trying to get Kam Chancellor as well. I'm a cardinals fan so I would love this cuz it gets him off SEA.
Yes Cruz is out. Randle is a very good backup wr. I would say that Scandrick is DAL's best CB and whoever isn't on Bechkam can have issue with the TE Donnell or Randle. Additionally, anyone on Beckham can have issues with Beckham obviously.
Rashad Jennings played moderately well last year and Shane Vereen is a good pickup for NYG. I know DAL oline is awesome but I'm not sold on Randle till I see him perform for a whole game.
Giants will have trouble with DEZ as always. IMO this should be a relatively high scoring game. If one were to take the giants, it would be for the reason that Randle doesn't run the ball great initially and so Romo starts forcing passes that lead to INTs. Thats how dal loses. Or they settle for fgs cuz Randle can't score TDs in the redzone despite having a great line.
If I were to predict the score I would obviously go Cowboys...27-19. But like I said if Romo screws up thats how they lose.
scandrick is out for season bro just so you know whats up, we have rookie byron jones and patmon and carr
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Quote Originally Posted by HoneyBadger21:
I have alot of football knowledge and have no motivation on who wins this game so lets debate....
If Giants get JPP back that helps. Also I doubt it, but they are trying to get Kam Chancellor as well. I'm a cardinals fan so I would love this cuz it gets him off SEA.
Yes Cruz is out. Randle is a very good backup wr. I would say that Scandrick is DAL's best CB and whoever isn't on Bechkam can have issue with the TE Donnell or Randle. Additionally, anyone on Beckham can have issues with Beckham obviously.
Rashad Jennings played moderately well last year and Shane Vereen is a good pickup for NYG. I know DAL oline is awesome but I'm not sold on Randle till I see him perform for a whole game.
Giants will have trouble with DEZ as always. IMO this should be a relatively high scoring game. If one were to take the giants, it would be for the reason that Randle doesn't run the ball great initially and so Romo starts forcing passes that lead to INTs. Thats how dal loses. Or they settle for fgs cuz Randle can't score TDs in the redzone despite having a great line.
If I were to predict the score I would obviously go Cowboys...27-19. But like I said if Romo screws up thats how they lose.
scandrick is out for season bro just so you know whats up, we have rookie byron jones and patmon and carr
Even with Dallas -5.5 at home, I am scratching my had trying to figure out how
the Giants have even a remote chance of covering and absolutely no chance of winning. The Giants terrible defense (#29
last year) has been decimated by injuries. The JPP saga did little to help too. Add to that the Victor Cruz and Ruben Randle injuries at WR and now you have an offense on its heels too. Tony Romo is very good and that
Offensive line is possibly the best in the NFL. I know that the Boys have not met expectations at home so far, but that
should change week 1. So ... please, can anybody who is completely sober and not a crazed Giants fan, tell me how the
Cowboys don't win this game by 10 or more points. I am all ears! This might be the best pick this week even at -5.5!!! Thoughts and comments are appreciated!!!
Yup two words. Division game
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Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:
Even with Dallas -5.5 at home, I am scratching my had trying to figure out how
the Giants have even a remote chance of covering and absolutely no chance of winning. The Giants terrible defense (#29
last year) has been decimated by injuries. The JPP saga did little to help too. Add to that the Victor Cruz and Ruben Randle injuries at WR and now you have an offense on its heels too. Tony Romo is very good and that
Offensive line is possibly the best in the NFL. I know that the Boys have not met expectations at home so far, but that
should change week 1. So ... please, can anybody who is completely sober and not a crazed Giants fan, tell me how the
Cowboys don't win this game by 10 or more points. I am all ears! This might be the best pick this week even at -5.5!!! Thoughts and comments are appreciated!!!
Eli has two rings thats why. I love the Giants here, Dallas may win by a FG but they wont cover. And I will be suprised if they win outright. I think the Giants are going to have a good year.
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Eli has two rings thats why. I love the Giants here, Dallas may win by a FG but they wont cover. And I will be suprised if they win outright. I think the Giants are going to have a good year.
The Giants are a wreck firstly, secondly they are finishing 4-12. I don't understand how blind the public can be. What does 2011 (last ring) have to do with 2015? This team has been on a steady downward spiral and has seen no improvement to any position group since 2014. Which unit has seen improvement? RB. That's it.
OL: lost your best player, your draft pick has graded out -4 in the Preseason, beaten clearly to the naked eye.
QB: the same.
WR: still no Cruz. Dwayne Harris maybe? Not better. This is the best unit on the team.
TE: Same.
RB: Better with Vereen, one unit improves.
S: all safeties injured, rookie Landon Collins has been awful.
DLine: Replace JPP with George Selvie and pray.
DBs: Same players as last year, this year with an EVEN WORSE safety tandem behind them.
Sorry, don't let logic get in the way of your play. Please bet a lot.
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The Giants are a wreck firstly, secondly they are finishing 4-12. I don't understand how blind the public can be. What does 2011 (last ring) have to do with 2015? This team has been on a steady downward spiral and has seen no improvement to any position group since 2014. Which unit has seen improvement? RB. That's it.
OL: lost your best player, your draft pick has graded out -4 in the Preseason, beaten clearly to the naked eye.
QB: the same.
WR: still no Cruz. Dwayne Harris maybe? Not better. This is the best unit on the team.
TE: Same.
RB: Better with Vereen, one unit improves.
S: all safeties injured, rookie Landon Collins has been awful.
DLine: Replace JPP with George Selvie and pray.
DBs: Same players as last year, this year with an EVEN WORSE safety tandem behind them.
Sorry, don't let logic get in the way of your play. Please bet a lot.
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