How often has the spread mattered so far...

Question

106 total games95-8-3In other words...only 8 times has a spread been covered by a dog where they haven&#x27;t won SU.

undermysac · Answer

106 total games95-8-3In other words...only 8 times has a spread been covered by a dog where they haven&#x27;t won SU.

Betbychoice · Answer

that is an amazing stat.

Damaged99 · Answer

This is true and I looked into it yesterday. It tells me two things. Number one don&#x27;t be scared of points just pick the winning team and number two if you&#x27;re going to be a dog take the ml regardless of how crazy it may seem.  Love this stat

undermysac · Answer

Historically in the NFL the spread comes into play only 17% of the time.

EastsideBangers · Answer

Nice find, Sac

Digitalkarma · Answer

Wow that is 7%, i&#x27;d imagine about 15%-20%Taking pts and ML is not that bad of an idea. I do it from time to time cant resist pulling the trigger on some &#x2B;200 dogs

erdoc · Answer

I&#x27;ve been doing this after reading it last year.  Playing dogs you can hit at a much lower percentage and still make money.  Playing favorites always play the spread.

undermysac · Answer

Just pick winners fellasSo many(including me) get stressed out about line movements, value, trends, bet%, sharps n squaresThis is a game of matchups, talent, depth, coaching/scheme and psychology. 2 plays I bet early for this week:Vikings-5Raiders&#x2B;1.52 units each, BOLTA

TheGr3atSantini · Answer

I was reading an article about this last week, pretty interesting stuff. Check it out here: https://www.thehookreport.com/single-post/2016/10/18/Hey-NFL-Is-The-Point-Spread-Dead

undermysac · Answer

Good article, a point I liked in reading was "you still have to find the right dog"

Additional thoughts: Is laying a td seem not that scary as it used to be?

Football over all seems weird this year, it feels different, to me at least. The game flow is choppy.

One things for sure, it is not very entertaining as years past.

JMO

Hawky · Answer

maybe it&#x27;s time to catch up on some favs? or trend to continue?

St2ee · Answer

Great stuff here buddy.

TRAIN69 · Answer

Did you read your own thread? Why would you take Oakland &#x2B;1.5 -110 when you could have the ML at &#x2B;$What are the odds the lose by exactly 1 point??

Ilost20grand · Answer

haha got emmmmmmmmmmmmmML the Dog

undermysac · Answer

There was no ML when I made the bet

newmarket · Answer

One of those 8 was Seattle over Atlanta..  just my luck..

newmarket · Answer

Vikings is mega public..  There will be a game at Wrigley as well that night..

fitchris562 · Answer

That&#x27;s also saying if you bet the favorite.Go ahead and give the points instead of paying ML juice.Am I reading that right?

lakerz · Answer

Yes, I believe that is the correct conclusion to OP pointInteresting stat overall, thanks for posting it UMS

fivedollarunit · Answer

you still have to pick the right underdog and you still have to calculate the implied odds to the number of points because the record doesn't differentiate between +2 or +10 underdogs in which the ML prices are vastly different.

if i cap two games one being +3 and other +1, based on the 95-8 record, both games have the same odds of the dog winning SU and i just don't find that plausible.

newmarket · Answer

I would appreicate a stat between 7-10 10.5-14 and 14+ favs to see if it is consistent. I highly doubt.. i would say favs -1 to -7 carry the big load..

When looking at 80%.. is there any point taking a 6 point dog? That means you will be risking the 20% to cover + the precentage they have to win outright? Would thay even take you to over 50%?
So maybe next time when taking a dog you play 80% on the spread and 20% on the ML for more value.. just a train of thought..
I know the 80% rule is more geared towards favs so just putting it out there..

undermysac · Answer

Cubs don&#x27;t play Monday...even if they didIs the mega public $ mean the game will be fixed?Sagarin line is Vikings-8.59 My #&#x27;s give me Vikings-9.89Great situational spot for Minny. Their loss last week makes for a good bounce back spot. On prime time they will not take the Bears lightly. Coach Zimmer called out his o line after the game and I love it. Who&#x27;s better, Cutler or Hoyer? The Bears gave up on Cutler and he knows it. Hoyer breaks his arm and Cuter&#x27;s thumb is miraculously healed for this game...horsesh*t. The Bears have not seen a defense this good yet and they will be without Sitton and possibly Long.Retread Connor Barth is not good from 40&#x2B; and I can&#x27;t see the Bears sniffing the redzone often.That&#x27;s how I see it

How often has the spread mattered so far...

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