Posted:
#1
I started out with a simple question. How in the world did the 2011
Giants and 2012 Ravens shock the world and win the SB as huge
postseason underdogs? The answer, as it turns out, is just as simple:
turnover differential.
In 2011, during the regular
season, the Giants ranked 8th in turnover differential at +7l. But during
their playoff run they won the turnover battle 7-1. The three teams
they beat that year in the playoffs to win the SB, SF, GB, and the Pats,
ranked #1, #2, #3 during the regular season with a turnover
differential of +28, +24, and +17 respectively. Yet the Giants beat all
three by winning the turnover battle (GB 4-1, Niners 2-0, and NE 1-0).
In
2012 the Baltimore Ravens ranked 8th in turnover differential during
the regular season at +9. But during their playoff run they won the
turnover battle 10-4. (2-2 vs the Colts, 3-1 vs the Broncos, 3-0 vs the
Pats who were +25 during the regular season, and 2-1 vs the Niners). Of
course they also had an all-world playoff performance by Flacco that
year, as he posted some of the greatest QB numbers in NFL history. But
even with all that, the margin for the Ravens was razor thin (beating
the Broncos in double OT in the Divisional round and winning the SB
against the Niners by stopping them inside the 10 yard line) and
turnovers turned out to be the difference.
I mention
all this because not so coincidentally, the Titans have been winning the
turnover battle thus far in the playoffs. During the regular season the
Titans were ranked 9th in turnover differential at +6. But during the
playoffs thus far they are 4-2 (1-2 vs Pats 3-0 vs Ravens not counting
the 2 turnover on downs by the Ravens when they went for it on 4th and
1). This year the top team in turnover differential was the Pats at +21.
The Packers were 3rd at +12 and the Chiefs were 7th at +8 and the
Niners were 10th at +4 (but, the Niners were much better during the
first half of the season when they had all their defensive players and
were not gassed). Still, as the examples above indicate, regular season
success at turnover differential is not an indicator of success during
the playoffs, thus making capping turnovers that much more difficult.
Nonetheless, if an inferior or less-talented team team is to knock off a
stronger opponent, they often have to win the turnover battle.
I
think KC (because of their quick-strike offense) is much better
equipped at overcoming losing the turnover battle than a team like the
Ravens, that has a difficult time playing from behind. We just saw this
last week when KC despite getting a punt blocked and muffing a punt
return, resulting in 14 points for the Texans, was able to overcome
those deficits by their ability to score points quickly. Of course, the
Titans, unlike the Texans, are much better equipped at protecting a
lead, but will they be so fortunate to win the turnover battle as they
did against the Ravens? Something tells me they won't, especially as KC
just got their jittery/rusty game out of the way and the Titans, who
just knocked off one of the greatest regular season teams in NFL
history, and beat the Chiefs during the regular season and 4 straight,
will not be taken lightly. Hence I'm giving a strong lean to the Chiefs
at -7.5. As a side note, during their regular season meeting, with the
Titans winning 35-32, the turnover battle was 1-1 but the Chiefs botched
a FG near midfield, a turnover of sorts, that ended up costing them the
game.
Now to the Niners...
The Niners
played a very jittery half last week and if not for a key fumble during
the first half that was overturned, would have been in deep trouble
against an opportunistic Vikings defense. As it turned out, they only
committed one bad turnover resulting in only 3 points and got a turnover
of their own, which they turned into 7 points, and thus were able to
win comfortably. I think for the Packers to have any chance in this game
they'll have to win the turnover battle by a margin of 2. Something
tells me that it might just happen, just as it did several years ago
when the Packers visited the Seahawks for the NFC title game and got
some easy turnovers to start the game. On the other hand, if it does not
happen and/or the Niners win the TO battle it will be lights out for
GB. Thus I'm giving a weak lean to the Packers at +7.5. Not only do they
have the we won't be humiliated again angle working for them, and the
"nobody believes in us angle," but they also have the more
experienced/better QB who does not turn the ball over.
My play: since turnovers are difficult to cap, and I predict one close game and one blowout, I'm just going to tease the best two teams and hope for the best!
Square teaser of the year Chiefs -1 and Niners -1 for 5 units
Square teaser of the year Chiefs -1 and Niners -1 for 5 units
Some interesting information/trends/stats regarding these games that caught my attention:
1) The good news for the Titans (and the 49ers) is that over past three years, teams that played on Saturday in the divisional round have gone 5-1 in the championship round. That's not a recent trend, either: Saturday teams have also gone 15-5 in the championship round over the past 10 years. Apparently, one extra day of rest can go a long way in the NFL.
2) One other thing about the Titans is that they seem to be the one team that Andy Reid has no idea how to beat. Over the past five years, Reid is 0-4 against Tennessee -- even though is team was favored to win all four games -- and three of those losses have come at Arrowhead Stadium.
3) NFC title games have somehow turned into the most unpredictable event in sports. Over the past 10 years, seven of them have been decided by one score, four of them have gone into overtime and the home team is just 4-6 against the spread.
4) To Shanahan's point, Sunday's meeting between the Packers and 49ers will be the 37th time in the Super Bowl era that teams will meet in the playoffs after one team beat the other by at least 25 points during the regular season. The team that won the first meeting is 22-14 in the ensuing matchup, including 7-2 in conference title games, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Working in the 49ers' favor is the fact that the team that won the first meeting has won nine straight times in the rematch. But those games have been much closer, with those wins by an average of 8.4 points. The largest margin in that group was 18.
The most recent team to lose a rematch after a dominant regular-season win was the 2010 New England Patriots against the New York Jets.
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