How the Titans and Packers can upset the Chiefs and Niners: It's all about the turnovers baby!

Question

I started out with a simple question. How in the world did the 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens shock the world and win the SB as huge postseason underdogs? The answer, as it turns out, is just as simple: turnover differential.

In 2011, during the regular season, the Giants ranked 8th in turnover differential at +7l. But during their playoff run they won the turnover battle 7-1. The three teams they beat that year in the playoffs to win the SB, SF, GB, and the Pats, ranked #1, #2, #3 during the regular season with a turnover differential of +28, +24, and +17 respectively. Yet the Giants beat all three by winning the turnover battle (GB 4-1, Niners 2-0, and NE 1-0).

In 2012 the Baltimore Ravens ranked 8th in turnover differential during the regular season at +9. But during their playoff run they won the turnover battle 10-4. (2-2 vs the Colts, 3-1 vs the Broncos, 3-0 vs the Pats who were +25 during the regular season, and 2-1 vs the Niners). Of course they also had an all-world playoff performance by Flacco that year, as he posted some of the greatest QB numbers in NFL history. But even with all that, the margin for the Ravens was razor thin (beating the Broncos in double OT in the Divisional round and winning the SB against the Niners by stopping them inside the 10 yard line) and turnovers turned out to be the difference.

I mention all this because not so coincidentally, the Titans have been winning the turnover battle thus far in the playoffs. During the regular season the Titans were ranked 9th in turnover differential at +6. But during the playoffs thus far they are 4-2 (1-2 vs Pats 3-0 vs Ravens not counting the 2 turnover on downs by the Ravens when they went for it on 4th and 1). This year the top team in turnover differential was the Pats at +21. The Packers were 3rd at +12 and the Chiefs were 7th at +8 and the Niners were 10th at +4 (but, the Niners were much better during the first half of the season when they had all their defensive players and were not gassed). Still, as the examples above indicate, regular season success at turnover differential is not an indicator of success during the playoffs, thus making capping turnovers that much more difficult. Nonetheless, if an inferior or less-talented team team is to knock off a stronger opponent, they often have to win the turnover battle.

I think KC (because of their quick-strike offense) is much better equipped at overcoming losing the turnover battle than a team like the Ravens, that has a difficult time playing from behind. We just saw this last week when KC despite getting a punt blocked and muffing a punt return, resulting in 14 points for the Texans, was able to overcome those deficits by their ability to score points quickly. Of course, the Titans, unlike the Texans, are much better equipped at protecting a lead, but will they be so fortunate to win the turnover battle as they did against the Ravens? Something tells me they won't, especially as KC just got their jittery/rusty game out of the way and the Titans, who just knocked off one of the greatest regular season teams in NFL history, and beat the Chiefs during the regular season and 4 straight, will not be taken lightly. Hence I'm giving a strong lean to the Chiefs at -7.5. As a side note, during their regular season meeting, with the Titans winning 35-32, the turnover battle was 1-1 but the Chiefs botched a FG near midfield, a turnover of sorts, that ended up costing them the game.

Now to the Niners...

The Niners played a very jittery half last week and if not for a key fumble during the first half that was overturned, would have been in deep trouble against an opportunistic Vikings defense. As it turned out, they only committed one bad turnover resulting in only 3 points and got a turnover of their own, which they turned into 7 points, and thus were able to win comfortably. I think for the Packers to have any chance in this game they'll have to win the turnover battle by a margin of 2. Something tells me that it might just happen, just as it did several years ago when the Packers visited the Seahawks for the NFC title game and got some easy turnovers to start the game. On the other hand, if it does not happen and/or the Niners win the TO battle it will be lights out for GB. Thus I'm giving a weak lean to the Packers at +7.5. Not only do they have the we won't be humiliated again angle working for them, and the "nobody believes in us angle," but they also have the more experienced/better QB who does not turn the ball over.

My play: since turnovers are difficult to cap, and I predict one close game and one blowout, I'm just going to tease the best two teams and hope for the best!

Square teaser of the year Chiefs -1 and Niners -1 for 5 units

Some interesting information/trends/stats regarding these games that caught my attention:

1) The good news for the Titans (and the 49ers) is that over past three years, teams that played on Saturday in the divisional round have gone 5-1 in the championship round. That's not a recent trend, either: Saturday teams have also gone 15-5 in the championship round over the past 10 years. Apparently, one extra day of rest can go a long way in the NFL.

2) One other thing about the Titans is that they seem to be the one team that Andy Reid has no idea how to beat. Over the past five years, Reid is 0-4 against Tennessee -- even though is team was favored to win all four games -- and three of those losses have come at Arrowhead Stadium.

3) NFC title games have somehow turned into the most unpredictable event in sports. Over the past 10 years, seven of them have been decided by one score, four of them have gone into overtime and the home team is just 4-6 against the spread.

4) To Shanahan's point, Sunday's meeting between the Packers and 49ers will be the 37th time in the Super Bowl era that teams will meet in the playoffs after one team beat the other by at least 25 points during the regular season. The team that won the first meeting is 22-14 in the ensuing matchup, including 7-2 in conference title games, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Working in the 49ers' favor is the fact that the team that won the first meeting has won nine straight times in the rematch. But those games have been much closer, with those wins by an average of 8.4 points. The largest margin in that group was 18.

The most recent team to lose a rematch after a dominant regular-season win was the 2010 New England Patriots against the New York Jets.

begginerboy · Answer

I started out with a simple question. How in the world did the 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens shock the world and win the SB as huge postseason underdogs? The answer, as it turns out, is just as simple: turnover differential.

In 2011, during the regular season, the Giants ranked 8th in turnover differential at +7l. But during their playoff run they won the turnover battle 7-1. The three teams they beat that year in the playoffs to win the SB, SF, GB, and the Pats, ranked #1, #2, #3 during the regular season with a turnover differential of +28, +24, and +17 respectively. Yet the Giants beat all three by winning the turnover battle (GB 4-1, Niners 2-0, and NE 1-0).

In 2012 the Baltimore Ravens ranked 8th in turnover differential during the regular season at +9. But during their playoff run they won the turnover battle 10-4. (2-2 vs the Colts, 3-1 vs the Broncos, 3-0 vs the Pats who were +25 during the regular season, and 2-1 vs the Niners). Of course they also had an all-world playoff performance by Flacco that year, as he posted some of the greatest QB numbers in NFL history. But even with all that, the margin for the Ravens was razor thin (beating the Broncos in double OT in the Divisional round and winning the SB against the Niners by stopping them inside the 10 yard line) and turnovers turned out to be the difference.

I mention all this because not so coincidentally, the Titans have been winning the turnover battle thus far in the playoffs. During the regular season the Titans were ranked 9th in turnover differential at +6. But during the playoffs thus far they are 4-2 (1-2 vs Pats 3-0 vs Ravens not counting the 2 turnover on downs by the Ravens when they went for it on 4th and 1). This year the top team in turnover differential was the Pats at +21. The Packers were 3rd at +12 and the Chiefs were 7th at +8 and the Niners were 10th at +4 (but, the Niners were much better during the first half of the season when they had all their defensive players and were not gassed). Still, as the examples above indicate, regular season success at turnover differential is not an indicator of success during the playoffs, thus making capping turnovers that much more difficult. Nonetheless, if an inferior or less-talented team team is to knock off a stronger opponent, they often have to win the turnover battle.

I think KC (because of their quick-strike offense) is much better equipped at overcoming losing the turnover battle than a team like the Ravens, that has a difficult time playing from behind. We just saw this last week when KC despite getting a punt blocked and muffing a punt return, resulting in 14 points for the Texans, was able to overcome those deficits by their ability to score points quickly. Of course, the Titans, unlike the Texans, are much better equipped at protecting a lead, but will they be so fortunate to win the turnover battle as they did against the Ravens? Something tells me they won't, especially as KC just got their jittery/rusty game out of the way and the Titans, who just knocked off one of the greatest regular season teams in NFL history, and beat the Chiefs during the regular season and 4 straight, will not be taken lightly. Hence I'm giving a strong lean to the Chiefs at -7.5. As a side note, during their regular season meeting, with the Titans winning 35-32, the turnover battle was 1-1 but the Chiefs botched a FG near midfield, a turnover of sorts, that ended up costing them the game.

Now to the Niners...

The Niners played a very jittery half last week and if not for a key fumble during the first half that was overturned, would have been in deep trouble against an opportunistic Vikings defense. As it turned out, they only committed one bad turnover resulting in only 3 points and got a turnover of their own, which they turned into 7 points, and thus were able to win comfortably. I think for the Packers to have any chance in this game they'll have to win the turnover battle by a margin of 2. Something tells me that it might just happen, just as it did several years ago when the Packers visited the Seahawks for the NFC title game and got some easy turnovers to start the game. On the other hand, if it does not happen and/or the Niners win the TO battle it will be lights out for GB. Thus I'm giving a weak lean to the Packers at +7.5. Not only do they have the we won't be humiliated again angle working for them, and the "nobody believes in us angle," but they also have the more experienced/better QB who does not turn the ball over.

My play: since turnovers are difficult to cap, and I predict one close game and one blowout, I'm just going to tease the best two teams and hope for the best!

Square teaser of the year Chiefs -1 and Niners -1 for 5 units

Some interesting information/trends/stats regarding these games that caught my attention:

1) The good news for the Titans (and the 49ers) is that over past three years, teams that played on Saturday in the divisional round have gone 5-1 in the championship round. That's not a recent trend, either: Saturday teams have also gone 15-5 in the championship round over the past 10 years. Apparently, one extra day of rest can go a long way in the NFL.

2) One other thing about the Titans is that they seem to be the one team that Andy Reid has no idea how to beat. Over the past five years, Reid is 0-4 against Tennessee -- even though is team was favored to win all four games -- and three of those losses have come at Arrowhead Stadium.

3) NFC title games have somehow turned into the most unpredictable event in sports. Over the past 10 years, seven of them have been decided by one score, four of them have gone into overtime and the home team is just 4-6 against the spread.

4) To Shanahan's point, Sunday's meeting between the Packers and 49ers will be the 37th time in the Super Bowl era that teams will meet in the playoffs after one team beat the other by at least 25 points during the regular season. The team that won the first meeting is 22-14 in the ensuing matchup, including 7-2 in conference title games, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Working in the 49ers' favor is the fact that the team that won the first meeting has won nine straight times in the rematch. But those games have been much closer, with those wins by an average of 8.4 points. The largest margin in that group was 18.

The most recent team to lose a rematch after a dominant regular-season win was the 2010 New England Patriots against the New York Jets.

Phillip2002 · Answer

Your are correct with the turnover statement and a great writeup!

I think it is also important that this is the NFC Championship and not the Divisional round. I think it makes a big moral difference.

warrenator · Answer

Moronic write up, waste of space just talking a bunch of hypothetical bullshit---yeah IF the dogs get 10 turnovers they can win, took a real fucking genius to come up with such idiocy

begginerboy · Answer

If that is all you understand from this writeup, you have first grade comprehension skills.

lordbettington · Answer

good write up

gambling-devil · Answer

Good write up and on point to the key of winning for the dogs

Jimmy G. is prone to throw interception. If Jimmy G. has a decent they 9ers win. If he has a bad day (2+ int), 9ers will be in trouble.

For KC, if they can play mistake free they have a high chance of winning the game. Beating the Titans is not a slam dunk for them since Titans has a great / solid running game.

begginerboy · Answer

e Thanks, buddy. I appreciate it. Just to put this in perspective. The 2011 Giants were &#x2B;7 during the regular season but a whopping &#x2B;6 during the playoffs in only 4 games. If you expand that to a 16 game season they would be &#x2B;24 for the season equaling the Packers and surpassing the Pats both of whom they beat in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the 2012 Ravens who were &#x2B;9 in 2012 and &#x2B;6 during the playoffs would have been &#x2B;24 if we expand their 4 game playoff performance to a 16 game season, almost equaling the Pats who were &#x2B;25 during that season.   2012 Ra

begginerboy · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by gambling-devil]  Good write up and on point to the key of winning for the dogs&#xD;&#xA;Jimmy G. is prone to throw interception. If Jimmy G. has a decent they 9ers win. If he has a bad day (2&#x2B; int), 9ers will be in trouble.&#xD;&#xA;For KC, if they can play mistake free they have a high chance of winning the game. Beating the Titans is not a slam dunk for them since Titans has a great / solid running game.  [/Quote]Agreed. Jimmy has to avoid mistakes and KC has to play with the lead if they want to avoid trouble.

trace_mcdirt · Answer

You&#x27;re reaching bro. Trying to be too sharp and trying too hard to call the upset. No way it happens.

begginerboy · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by trace_mcdirt]  You&#x27;re reaching bro. Trying to be too sharp and trying too hard to call the upset. No way it happens.   &#xD;&#xA;   [/Quote]Did you read my words?!  Who is calling for an upset? I&#x27;m just laying out the case for how an upset could happen and why I think the game might be close.

BallingLikeNE · Answer

Great digging and great stuff BB - go Niners!

BallingLikeNE · Answer

&#x201C;NFC title games have somehow turned into the most unpredictable event in sports. Over the past 10 years, seven of them have been decided by one score, four of them have gone into overtime and the home team is just 4-6 against the spread.&#x201D;This one really stuck out to me...

lancer89074 · Answer

Enjoyed the writeup BB...more grist for my mill to ponder. thumbs_up

Wondering how banged up Kelce is for the Chiefs...in their time of desperation last week, who did Mahomes rely on to catch the damn ball and get positive yardage...the big dog.

The Titans are so damn hot, there is no denying it but I doubt that KC will come out flatfooted and lackluster like the last game.

I state that but I was amazed last week by the ability of that Tenny Oline to toss those 300 pound plus Ravens' behemoths on their Dline out of the way for Henry to dance through virtually untouched.

It will be intriguing to see what plan Spagnuolo comes up with against this scary Titan smash mouth run dominance. No doubt the Chiefs will go for the jugular by lighting it up early on...can Tenny weather that aerial storm? ...should be a great game.

stressfreelife · Answer

Jimmy G had 1 turnover against a GREAT Minny defense and SF dominated that game.    I think Jimmy G understands the importance of limiting turnovers.

begginerboy · Answer

Yes, but a big reason why is Shany protected him by running the ball 70% of the time. As long as they can run the ball on GB, they will be fine.

Phillip2002 · Answer

&#xA;he should of had 2-3 and every throw was a short pass/slant/out. He barely even passed in the 2nd half too.

begginerboy · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by lancer89074]  Enjoyed the writeup BB...more grist for my mill to ponder. &#xD;&#xA;Wondering how banged up Kelce is for the Chiefs...in their time of desperation last week, who did Mahomes rely on to catch the damn ball and get positive yardage...the big dog.&#xD;&#xA;The Titans are so damn hot, there is no denying it but I doubt that KC will come out flatfooted and lackluster like the last game.&#xD;&#xA;I state that but I was amazed last week by the ability of that Tenny Oline to toss those 300 pound plus Ravens&#x27; behemoths on their Dline out of the way for Henry to dance through virtually untouched. &#xD;&#xA;It will be intriguing to see what plan Spagnuolo comes up with against this scary Titan smash mouth run dominance. No doubt the Chiefs will go for the jugular by lighting it up early on...can Tenny weather that aerial storm? ...should be a great game.  [/Quote]That will be the plan, buddy. Whether they can do it is another story. I think they can as long as Reid&#x27;s a-hole does not tighten up in the cold:)

lancer89074 · Answer

Andy Reid would make a perfect department store Santy Claus...

gambling-devil · Answer

&#xA;Yep, every time he dropped back and pass, I felt there is a chance for an interception.

Digitalkarma · Answer

good stuff BBThis was a factor i already looked into and reason why im taking the dogs this week.

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

Excellent read  Best of luck Brother

tootskie · Answer

if only it were that easy.  Understanding doesn&#x27;t mean it&#x27;s not happening.  foolish statement.

Contrarian21 · Answer

Great defense?! Let&#x2019;s not throw that around loosely. Playing QBs such as Blough, Trubisky, Brandon Allen, Dak tend to inflate some stats. Rhodes is trash.

begginerboy · Answer

Interesting article. Pack know the spread and are using it for motivation and to shift the pressure:

Rodgers and the Packers are playing with house money.

“I think if you look at this game, they’re favored by 7.5 (points), so they’re expected to hold court and win,” Rodgers said Wednesday. “People know how we played last time. If you look at pressure, the pressure is in a certain place, and we should be nice and loose.”

The top-seeded 49ers delivered a convincing 37-8 win over the Packers on Nov. 24. They’re now hosting the conference title game after dominating the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Divisional Round.

The Packers have won six straight games, including Sunday’s win over the Seattle Seahawks, but few outside Green Bay are expecting them to go into San Francisco and upset the 49ers, arguably the most complete team in football.

The pressure might be on the 49ers, but winning the rematch will be a tremendous challenge for the visitors. Not only did the 49ers dominate the Packers in the first meeting, but they’ve since returned several starters, including edge rusher Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander and left tackle Joe Staley, who all missed the Week 12 matchup.

The 49ers are deep, talented and well-coached, with the NFL’s second-best scoring offense and a fast, aggressive defense that smothered the Packers six weeks ago.

Pressure is real, however, and the Packers will take any little advantage they can get.

Rodgers explained the need to stay calm and avoid trying to do too much, a potential stumbling point for each team on Sunday.

“The problem is when you make it bigger than it needs to be,” Rodgers said. “When you try to do too much. When you try and cover for somebody else in your own mind. That’s when the mistakes happen.”

The Packers committed plenty of self-inflicted mistakes in the first meeting.

Receiver Davante Adams feels the importance of the rematch but also believes the pressure is on the 49ers to repeat the performance and win a game everyone is expecting them to win.

“Nothing to lose, but a lot to lose,” Adams said Wednesday. “The pressure is really on them. They went out there and dominated us last game. We did not take care of business the way we should have. It just was not a good showing. We bottled up that feeling and we’re ready to convert that into something great.”

begginerboy · Answer

A great article highlighting the chemistry and comoradery on the Niners:

Though going from 4-12 last year to the NFC's top seed in a calendar year has been a whirlwind, the Notre Dame product easily can identify the reason for the rapid rise.

Getting Garoppolo back obviously has helped, but there's more to it than that.

"It's the vision of Kyle and John and what they've done with the roster since they got here," Staley said before Wednesday's practice. "They've had patience and seen it all the way through with guys they've brought in through free agency and the draft. It has been about everybody executing their vision. There's a lot of hard work, and we're excited to be at this point right now."

Talent and good coaching are essential to any winning formula, but this 49ers team has something extra that some great teams don't have.

"It's kind of cliché to talk about in the NFL, but this is a family. It's a special group," Staley said. "This is my 13th NFL team here and every year is different. This is really special, with the camaraderie in the locker room and guys really showing up to play every single week and looking to get better every single day."

The group dealt with some adversity during a 4-12 campaign without Garoppolo, where they lost far more games than their talent suggests they should have. That provided the No. 2 overall pick they were too good to possess, providing a golden opportunity to add Nick Bosa to an already intimidating defensive front.

"It definitely helped. Everything happens for a reason," head coach Kyle Shanahan said. "You need some difference-makers, and Bosa has definitely been a difference-maker. We're glad we have him, but I don't wish 4-12 on anybody. But, after going through it, we definitely like what it brought us."

Bosa sort of fell into their lap. Many other key moves did not. The 49ers had to go out and get Garoppolo for a second-round pick – that's a steal now – and then pay him. They stocked the depth chart, and when they needed a talent infusion, they went out and got Emmanuel Sanders and a fifth-round draft pick from Denver for a third-round pick and a fourth-rounder.

Shanahan credits general manager John Lynch for all that.

"John and his staff have been unbelievable," Shanahan said. "When we came here, we knew we had to go get some. There were a lot here to start with that have worked out very well, but we also knew we had a lot of hard work in front of us. John and his staff have presented all this stuff and got us a ton of guys, and it's been great because even the big key ones that everyone knows about have made a difference. Also, we've had a lot of injuries this year too where a lot of guys have had to step up, and our depth has really been challenged this year and I think it's a credit to our personnel staff."

As Staley pointed out, this special locker room bond is atypical even among good teams where winning is common.

Shanahan made a point to emphasize that in a recent speech to the team as the 49ers move deeper into the playoffs.

"He pretty much gave a speech to the team about the fact that, sometimes in this league, you come to work and you clock in, you clock out," Sanders said. "And truthfully, I enjoy being around these guys. The speech that Kyle gave was that there's so much love between this team and how much we care about each other.

"I feel like when you have that kind of chemistry, and it's all throughout this team and all throughout this organization, I feel like when you have that, the sky is the limit. It's not a coincidence that we're in this position. We worked our butt off on the field and off the field and I feel like we are deserving of this moment and we got to take advantage of it."

How the Titans and Packers can upset the Chiefs and Niners: It's all about the turnovers baby!

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