HUGE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY FUNDAY

18-8-1 NFL

23-14 CFB

3-1 "GOY"

FIRST UP: JAGUARS +6 [-20]

Bills are in one of the worst scheduling spots of the season. Jags win straight up.

More soon including a "GOY" type play!

 Thank you!

@ONENESS129

@saigon

Curious why you buy points on all of your plays when it is a really bad long term value proposition.

Is there a specific reason?

Thanks, GL today.

@vanzack

 Great question. Especially because he also believes they win straight up.

@SportsIntuition

 They haven’t been plus since late last Sunday night and they are 5 at the time you posted this 

@vanzack

@dayknight

This question was asked yesterday in the CFB thread and the individual who said "research" shows it's a losing proposition long-term.

Here is my response:

The "research" on the subject only works because of what I already said - 98% of the people lose big.

What do you think those same "researchers" would find if they did the same study on the 2% that win big consistently?

Common sense says if you lose big consistently, don't waste your money on buying a half point because it won't matter, because you've already proven you can't pick winners.

But if you win big consistently [like me] then it's a whole different ballgame because you do things to protect every investment you make, like hedging and buying half points to get to certain key numbers.

I've been VERY successful betting football for the last 20+ years.

I'm not an action junkie or degen, I am a very smart investor.

And the last thing I would ever do is change what's worked for me.

All because "research" that doesn't apply to me, and others like me, says it's a losing proposition.

@sherriffics

@Jdp2598

Maybe consider a new book since almost every book was 5.5 right up to kickoff.

OK.  A lot of words that really dont say much.

It isnt "research".  You sound like an announcer who doesnt understand the probability so he uses "analytics".

I was hoping you had some kind of sound logic behind it so I could learn something.  Like why you buy points, or when you buy points.  But buying off of EVERY number, in EVERY situation - is a longterm loser.  Sorry.  That isnt research.

Glad you are winning - and hope you continue.  I was just hoping for more.

Thanks.

Should always buy to a flat number on a hooked spread. Saved me many times, why does it matter if he says they should win outright or buys to a flat number? Winner is a winner

i agree with the buying of points , never lose by a half again, and i am only having a 50% year so far, i can promise ya the games i buy on i have not been losing, and if ya think they win outright then no sense, thurs the bears were +6 in my write up i said i would usually buy to 7 but since i am thinking of adding a ML play no reason to buy, yesterday i bought up to under 47 in the alabama game and it paid off, i bought down to over 53 N.dame louisville and got a push and not a loss, i did lose one game yesterday where i bought from 6.5 to 7 and it was Missouri and if you seen how it ended it was a bad beat, you'll have those, usually i am a 58-64% winner and in college hoops even better, i came over from cappersmall, where for years i was documented, over 60% in coll hoops, and thats not betting 100 games a year but like 700, you know how hard it is to go 60+% betting that many games, year after year, most would say its stupid and maybe right, but if you can do it over and over, today i took the jets but bought up and took indy and bought up, juice was high so played lower, i really like the rams today and detroit   gl  151

People who always buy points are shitty cappers who don’t trust their own capping. 

Oh dear.

ADDING: STEELERS +5 [-20] 

In the interest of transparency, I hold advance degrees from Wharton and MIT.

I think I know a "little" about analytics and risk management.

But you can attempt to convince me I'm wrong as it pertains to ME and my betting strategies.

And keep in mind, I'm the 2% that wins big consistently, not the 98% that loses big consistently

So, please, go ahead and humor with me how I am negatively impacted by buying the half point.

Holding the line....

i like reading write ups, all my games come with write ups, i always said if i want someone to follow me you better explain why you like something, and if you think your just so good that you do not need to, then hell with ya, i never go by ats records until after handicapping, to see if they can make the game a stronger play, and i usually bet games early in the week, and i do not let the money change my mind or worry me, actually if the money goes against me and its not because of injury i would even add to it, i always say trust your own handicapping, and not where the money is going, even syndicates lose, i worked at wwts years ago, this i know for sure, wwts was maybe the most trusted offshore book in the mid to late 90's then the govt came after the owner and my friend Billy Scott, he sold in mid 2000's where it became Bulldog sports, then Bovada , he then returned to the US and settled with the govt for 7 million in owed taxes ...anyway i do like your write ups   gl 

@Eprince

 no not true, its about the numbers, 3 4 6 7 10 11   5-8-9 12 would never buy  

jax today +5  no buy  

I am 3-1 in GOY type plays.

I won 2 of those by the hook. Ironically both games I bought off 3 to 3.5 and, instead of pushes, I won both big.

So, for me, it's not just about buying to a flat number, It's about certain key numbers and knowing when to buy and not to buy.

I almost always buy because most games I play involve key numbers.

Selling points is way better for long-term ROI than buying points. If you’re buying points on more than 1-2% of your bets, you’re just costing yourself in the long run

Very simply...

If you are currently winning big consistently, if you didnt buy points indiscriminately - you would be winning bigger.

End of story.

Being that you have advanced degrees from Wharton AND MIT, you should certainly understand the concept of overpaying for risk factors.  This works in insurance, but not in gambling.  When you have a one time event that covers utility that you cant cover yourself-  you overpay to reduce risk.  In this case - you are simply overpaying and while you say you win big - you are not maximizing your profit.

GL