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I called week 3 upset and won big! Now I have week 4 pick

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
  Underdogs went 10-7.  I have top dog play next week even i know you wont even dare to bet it but as an experience handicapper I will.  I cashed in big with Buff play. check my blog for reference. I have been betting since 16 with local bookie and now Im 30yrs old. Plenty of experience. Enough of me already and I hope Ive earn some respect on my last play. I even put my credibility on the line saying that the Bills win SU.  I cashed in big on the ML also hitting 4 team parlay.

  The public is all over NO against Jag.  NO came from behind and won Hou for backdoor cover.  Heres my trend Ive been keeping tab on.  Teams that come from back door cover are 33-88 ATS the next game they are favored by more then 3 points.  For example recently the cowboys came from back door cover against SF and lost to skins.  

  Also this spread started at 9 and now sits at 7 wich hasnt move since and the public is pounding NO. This trend shows that a road fav favored by 7 or more with 60+ public bet are straight up 45% lost ATS.

  PICK JAG+ 7   easy money!


 
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Posted: #2
I agree. GL
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
THATS 60% OF PUBLICS BET ARE 45% LOST ATS
THEY DONT CALL IT HOMETOWN ADVANTAGE FOR NOTHING.

GOOD LUCK. NO PICK IS GUARANTEE BUT WITH EXPERIENCE AND KNOWLEGE, YOU HAVE AN EDGE ON BET ON YOUR FAVOR. BETTER THEN 50/50 
 
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Posted: #4

The Jags could be one of the worst teams in the league this year while, I believe, the Saints could be a superbowl contender.  Good luck with your bet, but I wouldn't touch the Jags against this team.

 
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Posted: #5
The Jags have averaged 9.3 Pts per game with a rookie QB.  The Saints get Marcus Colston back this week.  The Saints are 9-4-1 the last 14 games on grass, including a nail biter to start the season at Lambeau Field against the defending Super Bowl champs Green Bay.  Unless you think the Jags are going to  catch fire and put up 21 to 27 Pts and i really think thats unlikely because Brees will put up 35 on this Jags team.  Sometimes trends don't always work but give me the Saints here 35-10.
 
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Posted: #6
You may be on to something.............also, the Saints have 3 straight raid games, this one & then back to back against their division rivals, Carolina & Tampa, which neither will be a cake walk.
 
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Posted: #7
seems to be the sexy pick this week, dont see how the jags hang though, you just saw what happens when the saint have there back against the wall.  the jags arent buffalo.  SAINTS BIG!
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by 18wheeler:

  Underdogs went 10-7.  I have top dog play next week even i know you wont even dare to bet it but as an experience handicapper I will.  I cashed in big with Buff play. check my blog for reference. I have been betting since 16 with local bookie and now Im 30yrs old. Plenty of experience. Enough of me already and I hope Ive earn some respect on my last play. I even put my credibility on the line saying that the Bills win SU.  I cashed in big on the ML also hitting 4 team parlay.

  The public is all over NO against Jag.  NO came from behind and won Hou for backdoor cover.  Heres my trend Ive been keeping tab on.  Teams that come from back door cover are 33-88 ATS the next game they are favored by more then 3 points.  For example recently the cowboys came from back door cover against SF and lost to skins.  

  Also this spread started at 9 and now sits at 7 wich hasnt move since and the public is pounding NO. This trend shows that a road fav favored by 7 or more with 60+ public bet are straight up 45% lost ATS.

  PICK JAG+ 7   easy money!




I like your logic, but Dallas did not cover, it was a push at -3.

 
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Posted: #9
1st of all, congads on ur big win.but lets be honest, if u take away at least 1 of thos flute int brady threw, buffalo does not win n u wuda lost ur ml bet so that was clearly a lucky win sorry..saint r alot better than the jags especially starting blane gabbert so thats just a huge risk that i dnt feel is even worth taking..its easy to feel confident like u do rite now when u get lucky as u did last sunday, but u dont know what the hell ur talking about buddy.. sorry n good luck with ur next haymaker wager 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by 18wheeler:

  Underdogs went 10-7.  I have top dog play next week even i know you wont even dare to bet it but as an experience handicapper I will.  I cashed in big with Buff play. check my blog for reference. I have been betting since 16 with local bookie and now Im 30yrs old. Plenty of experience. Enough of me already and I hope Ive earn some respect on my last play. I even put my credibility on the line saying that the Bills win SU.  I cashed in big on the ML also hitting 4 team parlay.

  The public is all over NO against Jag.  NO came from behind and won Hou for backdoor cover.  Heres my trend Ive been keeping tab on.  Teams that come from back door cover are 33-88 ATS the next game they are favored by more then 3 points.  For example recently the cowboys came from back door cover against SF and lost to skins.  

  Also this spread started at 9 and now sits at 7 wich hasnt move since and the public is pounding NO. This trend shows that a road fav favored by 7 or more with 60+ public bet are straight up 45% lost ATS.

  PICK JAG+ 7   easy money!


Dallas beat washington, they did not lose... They didnt cover but they didnt lose the game.

 
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Posted: #11
Im going to throw some cash on them. What parlay are you doing this week?
BOL!

Great call last week btw
 
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Posted: #12
Easy Money 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by jeremydraul:



I like your logic, but Dallas did not cover, it was a push at -3.



dallas was an early opening line favorite at -1.5 they did cover
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
If you win that bet, you'll earn it.

There's nothing worse IMO than betting a team that can't score, and the Jags can't score. 

I can live with losing on New Orleans. I'm looking for a survivor pick, I like NO to win the game.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
JUST LIKE A LOT OF YOU THOUGHT BILLS ARENT GOING TO WIN.  I PUT MY REPUTATION ON THE LINE CALLING IT STRAIGHT WIN..THIS WILL ALSO HURT MY CREDIBILTY IF THIS DONT PULL OFF
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by 18wheeler:

JUST LIKE A LOT OF YOU THOUGHT BILLS ARENT GOING TO WIN.  I PUT MY REPUTATION ON THE LINE CALLING IT STRAIGHT WIN..THIS WILL ALSO HURT MY CREDIBILTY IF THIS DONT PULL OFF
relax there fella- just make your picks, no one is ?ing your "cred" -PASS on NO - Jax for me,,no value either way
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
trying to figure out where is your post where you called out your big upset?!! I only see your post about the big upset at 8 o clock when the game was done....
 
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Posted: #18
i don't see how you can take jags at this point? the only excuse is that they played in a monsoon at carolina. but then again, before the weather disaster, they couldn't pick their nose .
 
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Posted: #19
I am riding with you on this one. Giving up 7 on the road is a lot to ask for in the NFL. We have seen a number of games where a Road Fav tanks this high number of 7 or more, ie NE and Pitt.


 
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Posted: #20
Not on this one with you but it should be interesting to see how the saints do against their first solid rushing attack. If MJD gets it going you could be sitting pretty sunday. I like other spots better then this one but can appreciate the play and why it's a decent play.
 
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Posted: #21
I get Dogs 12-4.  What fav covered besides GB, NO, Bal, and Car?

Besides, there are only 16 games.  How could anything be 10-7?
 
 
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Posted: #22
I get Dogs 12-4.  What fav covered besides GB, NO, Bal, and Car?

Besides, there are only 16 games.  How could anything be 10-7?
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