I know the forum doesn't watch Fox News

So they have the CEO of Fan Duel on and asked how / why KC is an underdog.

She didn't answer but offered:

"Well 80 % of the handle has come in on KC, so that explains it"

Not really but thanks.  It was a sales call, selling to the props market.  I'm super interested to see where the bulk of the money lands AND how the line rectifies itself, if at all.

This is such an intriguing matchup on so many levels.

@unplucked_gem

A proper question to ask for sure and I am pondering it myself. The Mr. Know All on Covers has posted me directly that there are big money whales laying down large bets on San Fran. What proof does he have of that one? Mere speculation which is what I am doing without having real numbers in front of us. 

Another question to ask the CEO of FanDuel would have been, 'if the handle on KC is 80% why hasn't the line moved'?  

By putting out the opening line of SF  -2.5 the bookmakers knew from which direction that the money would flood in on. You don't need to be Nostradamus to figure that one out. Why did they open the game at that number? Was it to suck everyone in on the Chiefs? 

Is it to mitigate any SF Superbowl futures' bets' liability they are on the hook for? That is one possible theory that I heard. 
Sometimes bookmakers and sportsbook ticket writers chime in around this time and divulge what is going on in their live betting world reality. I hope some of those guys enlighten us. 

Mgm reports 77% of the money on KC . All of the late action has been KC. 

@Buffalobob89074

The answer to that is the following:

Money doesn't move a line, sharp money does.

Books don't care if 80% of the $25 - $1000 tickets go one way but they pay attention to known players laying big numbers......mattress mack excluded of course.

@unplucked_gem

Typically sharp money is bet early and the public bets on the weekend leading up to the Superbowl. If the story above is true and 80% of the handle is on KC then perhaps the sharps are on KC?

The 'public money handle' on a Superbowl is huge and equals or surpasses sharp money so for this one time event every year I discount the influence of the sharps. They are a factor but not the overwhelming influencers that you theorize they are, not for this one game. 

We will see the story that the late money tells us. At least 50% of the handle hasn't been made. 

Niners local radio had Johnny Avello, the DraftKings' Director of Sportsbook Operations, and they asked him about the line and the money they're getting. 

@Buffalobob89074

 %110 agree sharp money doesn't do much if anything for the superbowl due to the overwhelming amount of bets placed by people that likely only bet once a year. KC will continue to take the majority of the handle late action will come in on the 49ers for people waiting for a better ML # on the 49ers . The percentages of bet% and Handel% will be lopsided in KCs favor this superbowl and I don't see anything changing that until kickoff . 

100 %

There is still a lot more money that has yet to be wagered on this game.

@vgb824

 Super interesting listen.  A few key take aways:

- I think the chiefs action is value on mahomes / Reid being an underdog

-I never used to take many million dollar bets bets not they're common place, the benefit of being in 26 states.

-At this point we need the 49ers, could change, but if we win we win / we lose we lose. 

-I'm not the greatest prognosticators/handicapper but I'm a he'll of an oddsmaker.

Thanks or sharing my man, good stuff.

@Fademeuwin

 Mostly agree.  My mentor teaches that sharp money line movement is subtle.   Maybe the line itself doesn't move but the juice goes from -110 to -115 for the same number.  

We're in for a fun 48 hours.

The fanduel ceo says 80% of handle, which is total dollars bet including sharp money is on kc and it seems they are fine with that.  They would lose billions and they don't seem worried, no line moves.

We are actually seeing some slight changes already with the moneyline

at some shops at  - 135 /  + 115 currently.

Action network betting splits report:

sharps are on 49ers

 https://ibb.co/4f0JZt3

sharps recently flipped from Under to Over

 https://ibb.co/X8X8JbW

I’m trying to think of the law that makes sportsbooks reveal to the public what % of the bets are on what side. Can someone share this information with me please? Thanks

@philschnaars

 Is there one?

I'm also trying to find the name of lawsuit NFL argued they're entertainment.

@unplucked_gem

 Good luck my Friend!!!!!

“Sharp” money really go early like it used to? 

Between all the injuries, the weather, and then the bowl game fiasco of 2023…..not sure the big dogs are firing away like that.  

Unless it’s the sort of day trader people playing games getting positions…..which u can’t trust that early money anyway.  

Back in the" 80's and '90's I was one of the guys who hung out at the

Stardust on Sunday nights and the Sands on Sunday afternoon waiting

for CFB openers. Back then you could get some real bargains if you

knew what to look for. The game has changed in most sports in a

lot of ways especially in who is going to play and who is not.

Now it pays to wait until those questions are answered to your

satisfaction until you make a wager in a lot of circumstances.

Oddsmakers have become more proficient in pricing plays.

Those early bargains are now fewer and harder to find.

@WISEGUY36

 Right.  Plus you lose the benefits of late line movement which if you're taught by Bob McCune you know is meaningful.

Back then I used to fly into LV on Friday nights  from Chicago and it was a big

advantage to me to have made my wagers for the week already in  my pocket

from betting them the previous Sunday night. Especially on the plays that had

some significant line movement during the week.Those  were some  great days.

books have no reason to hide those figures since the business is legal. there isn't supposed to be an advantage to any sides books or bettors. percentages are reported and published publicly everyday.