I'm historically 🙃HORRIBLE 💩the last 2 weeks of the season = FADE these WK17 losers?

What's up Family ?? 

Not me the last 2 weeks of the season over the last 17 years. I've dug deep into my old notrebooks and found a major trend that my picks usually suck to close out the regular season... Same old story , often do well most of the FB season and poop the bed to close it out... If my documentation and math are correct over the last 17 years I'm 29-112 with some large losses ...

    Fast forward to this FB season where I'm up over $14,800 over the last 6 weeks ( all sports ) ...The law of averages dictates I'll take some brutal lumps over the next 2 weeks.......

Praying that I close out strong , but it's far more likely that history repeats itself 

My main focus this week is the Fantasy Football Championship ...I offered a 60/40 split but my opponent wants to go for the gusto (70/30 in a 12 team $500 entry league) ..

I need help setting my lineup , PLEASE add your 2 cents on my below options !! 

% = likelihood I'll start him 

QB J ALLEN. 100%   

RB.  J TAYLOR  100%

RB.  D OGUNBOWALE  50%  This is where things get tricky ..I want to put Cordarel Patterson here but he has really fell off down the stretch and faces the BILLS this week..While the Jags at Pats matchup is tough , Ogunbowale should get plenty of touches ( Hopefully dump offs as catches are worth 1 point  ) 

WR.   D ADAMS 100% 

WR.  M Hollywood BROWN 90%  Missed practice yesterday after practically fully on Wednesday ...Need him or it will be a major guessing game on his replacement .

TE.  ANDREWS  100%  I'm convinced the Ravens could start anyone at qb and Andrews would still get his 

FLEX. C PATTERSON. 42%  I really don't want to start him , but what option below is better ?? 

Defense.  BILLS.  100%   looks like a letdown spot but they still should get the their points ( hoping for 7+ ) 

Kicker. No one.....Options include Succopp , Crosby , Joseph , McPherson,  Browns kicker ....Need to drop someone below to add a kicker ...

Bench 

RB.   M GORDON.   One of the 7 players that I drafted still remaining ...Williams looks to have taken control of the RB spot in Denver...50/50 I drop Gordon tomorrow ( my opponent can't pick him up that way ) 

RB D GORE.  15%  Very Sneaky pickup this week ..With CEH likely out Gore should at least split touches with D Williams 

RB. J HOWARD 33%  Dealing with a neck Stinger,  finally practiced yesterday albeit in limited capacity...Could see a big day vs Swiss cheese WFT D ..

WR.   GALLUP.  2%    Doesn't get enough touches to warrant a start , my gut says he lights up the Cards though ...Uggg 

WR. GABE DAVIS. 30%  The Bills are healthy finally at WR, clouding the snap count ..But before covid Davis was ascending big time ...

WR.  PALMER   Depends on Mike Williams and Guyton protocol status ...Probably a drop tomorrow 

TE. FRIERMUTH. 13%  Practiced in full yesterday exiting concussion protocol...Love having player on MNF to close out the week ..Flex could be an option 

TE  MOREAU.  With Waller likely out this add was more of a block to my opponent...

Alright enough rambling , let's get to Gambling 

HAPPY NEW YEAR FAMILY  !! May 2022 be the greatest year of your lives to date .

BEST OF HEALTH ,HAPPINESS, BLESSINGS, WEALTH, and LUCK TO ALL !!! 

Week 17 Wagers 

" They NEED to win PARLAY " +103

Play of the Week 

$500/$515

COLTS  -305

EAGLES -190 

Although I'm probably at 5% of these "must win " parlays over the last few decades I can't stay away from these 2 teams ...Don't think anyone wants to play them in the playoffs !! 

DOLPHINS OVER 17.5 -114 

$228/200 

Miami has been my golden goose over the last 8 games ...Not sure they win here but I love this defense who should blitz Tannehill into a few mistakes...Toggling between TT OVER and ATS on the Phish has been $$$ 

BENGALS +5. 

$220/200

Everyone and their Grandma is in love with the Chiefs right now ... An upset Bengals win here seals the North ...

STEELERS +3.5 

$220/200 

RAPISTBERGER'S last home game ? Browns enjoy finding ways to lose ...

* MORE TO FOLLOW ..

WAITING for player props to be released ...

Dropped Foster Moreau for Buffalo BULL rookie Jaret Patterson who may start vs the Eagles with Gibson landing on the covid list ( Mckissic on IR ) 

Thanks for sharing...that Pitts' run D as you know ranks dead last as they give up +140 per game on average and now face the 3rd best run offense with both Chubb and Hunt healthy and that other horse on the bench who is no slouch either. 

Pitts gets DTs Wormley and Adams back so that should help but last week the only ones making tackles were ILB Spillane and FS Fitzpatrick...but then again Mayfield is playing injured though the refs really buggered the Browns in that GB game IMO and didn't call some obvious Packer fouls late in the game. 

You have the hot hand, I sure don't, so trust yourself until the wheels fall off. BOL...

@DoubleUp4Life

 DU4L, as to your Fantasy Lineup, I'd say you're better off with Patterson, even given the points slide over the last 4 games. The good news is ATL has nothing to play for, therefore no reason not to pull out all the stops and I'm betting Patterson gets a lot of touches and gets you upwards of 15-20 points this weekend. As far as Defense goes, if you have Buffalo, I'd leave them in as they'll look to solidify their playoff position and put some distance between themselves and the rest of the AFC contenders for HFA. At kicker, I'd look to McPherson because of the matchup with KC. Chief's defense will play at an elevated level in this one and the Bengals may have difficulty getting into the end-zone, so the kicking game seems more important in this one. As far as flex goes, I agree with your pick of Gallup at that position given that AZ will attempt to DT Cooper and check Shultz at the line, plus Gallup has the size and speed to outman the Cardinal DBs on deep routes.As for your picks, I like the Eagles to cover, not sure about Indy without Wentz. GL Brother!

@DoubleUp4Life

 K Succopp Flex Friermuth. Good Luck.

Really appreciate the scoop on your Steelers....

Looks like a bad match up for the Pittsburgh D on paper but I really think they come to play Monday especially if the Bengals lose ...

All that being said I have zero trust in my picks over the next 2 weeks ....I'll be more than happy just to win the Fantasy league ....

Best of luck this weekend my good brother 

Ready for some college football playoffs ??? 

I've gone extremely light on the Bowls  as I have almost zero confidence in my picks outside of MAC conference games..

Currently 2-2 -$150.50 

Playoff Teaser -110

$440/400. 4 units ( College Monaco units are only $100 )

ALABAMA -7

MICHIGAN +14

Should be my largest wager of the Bowl season ( still only a 2 unit play in the National football sports entertainment business/NFL) ...

While I'd love to see the Bearcats win outright , but this is a horrible match up vs Saban who has too much time to prepare ...If the Bearcats fall behind early this could get real ugly...

I'll be watching the Michigan v Georgia game with the in laws who both went to Michigan ..They'd probably ban me from ever entering again if I showed up rooting for the Dawgs ( hmmm maybe I should take Georgia  ) ...Thinking this one comes down to whoever has the ball last ...Might sprinkle a few coins on Michigam ML as well ..

@DoubleUp4Life

Bounce back brother DoubleUp it’s a new winning year for you! 

@az49erdog

 Really appreciate your response ...

Agree with much of what you said...Just dropped Palmer for McPherson.....Dude is on fire as the 4th highest scoring kicker ..Last 6 games =10/13/10/4/13/20 points ...

I'm really torn on C PATTERSON,  he might get more touches but they've really stopped throwing him the ball lately...my current prediction only has him with 11 carries 39 yards , 2 catches 12 yards for a small 7.1 points....I just picked up Jaret Patterson from the WFT I've been a huge fan of his since he tore up the MAC for my hometown BULLS...He is a reliable recieving back who gets low while fighting for extra yards ...I could be way off but I projecting 16-69  4 catches for 31 and a TD for 20 points ....Jaret is from the DC area and should have a large crowd of friends and Fam at the game .

Gallup /FRIEEMUTH , Gabe Davis , and C Patrerson are likely my options at flex ....Your points about Gallup make sense,  just having a hard time starting someone who hasn't had a food game since Thanksgiving day ...

Thanks again for all your help FAM!!!! 

Schobert and Wormley were added to the covid list today...

Probably bc I bet on them 

Seriously I'll likely go winless this weekend as it's par for the course...uggg

Appreciate the update Brother 

I too am playing in the championship this week and I also have corderelle Patterson and I am concerned about the match up against the bills. I just picked up those two RBs you mentioned and might star on of them too

Hey DUP what do you think about dak and amari cooper this week? I have taysom hill on the bench. It’s a super flex league with two QBs and I also have mahomes. Would you play mahomes and dak if it were you?

These are some tough choices when the big prize is on the line ....

Right now I have Jaret Patterson starring over Cordarrelle  

C Patterson has really fallen off ( last 3 games in PPR league ) 

8.3 /4.3 /13.9 points......

I like Jaret or Ogunbowale better than C Patt this week ...

Best of luck Brother 

I'd definitely do 2 qbs in a super flex league ...

How many wrs do you start ??? No way could I sit Ty Hill , he had a bad game last week after coming back from the RONA .I'd bet he has a big game this week..

Like majority of your plays. I like the Phins to beat Tennessee.

I am a bit iffy about the Eagles. The Eagles need this game and the line is only 3.5-4 points. It should be at least 6 points. The Eagles has been covering well and the WFT is playing like crap. It does not add up.

Good luck brother.

My opponents current lineup 

QB STAFFORD 

RB MONTGOMERY 

RB BURKHEAD 

WR  T HILL 

WR METCALF 

TE  ERTZ 

FLEX. BOYD 

D. SAINTS 

K. BASS 

My current line up 

QB  ALLEN 

RB  TAYLOR 

RB  J PATERSON 

WR  ADAMS 

WR  M BROWN ?   G DAVIS , GALLUP 

TE  ANDREWS 

FLEX  C PATTERSON  ? J HOWARD , FRIERMUTH, OGUNBOWALE, GALLUP , G DAVIS 

D. BILLS 

K.  MCPHERSON 

Thanks bud! Yeah I am going to sit C Pat as well and go with one of those other backs I picked up.

On the QBs would you start Taysom Hill over Dak or mahomes? I had been telling myself I would start Hill over Dak when I got to the championship but now I’m really torn on what to do.

we play two recievers in this league but we also have 2 flex positions aside from the super flex. I have Kupp Locket and amari cooper starting at reciever. A little scared of what amari is gonna do but nothing great to replace him with besides one of those backs you like or Lazard of Green Bay.

I also have Kyle pitts playing at TE against Buffalo which don’t sound too good. I’d have to pick someone up in order to sit him. Friermuth and Everett of Seattle are available. What do you think? Thanks buddy

I would start C Patterson over J Patterson.  I think they are pretty even for yards but C Pat is 10 times better for receptions, and a little better for a TD

But it is close and you should go with your gut.  I just don't think WFT has anything going for it on offense and that makes it tough to run, even if he gets a lot of carries.  And he could get benched if he can't protect the QB good enough

I misread it, you can start both.  Who do you have on the bench ?

Thorpe what’s your thoughts on my QB position?

mahomes 

Dak

taysom hill

i can start 2 of those

I have Mixon and Kamara staring at RB but I also have two flex positions. My choices are

Mike Williams 

C Pat

Rashod penny Seattle RB

amari cooper

Ogunbawale Jax RB

Mark Ingram 

Lazard of Green Bay 

One more Thorpe. I have Kyle pitts at TE going against Buffalo. I can pick up Friermuth of Pittsburg or Everett of Seattle if I wanted to change him

DUP anymore thoughts from you very much appreciated as well.

gabreil Davis is also available to me