QUOTE Originally Posted by P4P:
That game aside, the Super Bowl comes down to how much one buys the "bend, but don't break" Pats defense. Maybe Belichick is just happy to concede yardage between the 20's and that's just their plan...or maybe their 32nd-ranked SOS and complete lack of playing respectable quarterbacks/offenses has something to do with teams' inability to finish those drives. Prior to last weekend, the Pats had played exactly one "good" team, and lost at home, to Seattle. Keep in mind this wasn't the same Seahawks team we've seen the past couple of seasons, and their offense was especially putrid on the road (3 points at St Louis, 6 points in 5 quarters at Arizona, 5 points at Tampa, and 10 points at Green Bay). That Seattle team went into Foxborough and absolutely abused the "vaunted" Patriots' D.
New England is favored despite "it's defense isn't that great..." "they haven't faced anyone with a good offense..." "team x did this so Atl will do that... " All the squares love offensive teams so after dropping 36 and 44 points in 2 playoff games why aren't the Falcons favored? The fact of the matter is the league sucks as a whole and there have been 4 real good teams and then everyone else. The one constant has been New England and their defense I think has come together, everyone knows what they're job is and the coaches know how to employ those players. Once they traded away Jamie Collins for pennies on the dollar it woke everyone up that they need to do their job or they'll get shipped to NFL hell in Cleveland because Bill just doesn't give a f**kkkk. The Seattle loss was the first game after that trade, a game they played the worst defensively all season. They took the rest of the season to figure out their pieces, and albeit they faced shitty teams the rest of the way, they figured it out. But again, the league as a whole sucks.
Go read CMJohnson1's thread and he hit everything spot on. The nunbers don't mean d**k because they can all be justified, but the only one that can't be is points. You only win games by scoring more points than you allow. Most points scored vs least amount allowed has favored the defense more times than not and NE has an offense capable of matching Atlanta, but they won't. They're going to keep the ball outta Matt Ryan's hands by sustaining drives with their short passing game, power rushing and they won't take big shots unless they're there against the defense because they want to dominate TOP.
In Super Bowl 42, NE with the highest scoring offense in history at the time, limited to 29:33 vs 30:37 in TOP vs a top ranked defense and scores 14 points. In Super Bowl 46, NE with the 10th highest scoring offense in history at the time, limited to 22:55 vs 37:05 in TOP vs a top ranked defense and scored 14 points. Super Bowl 48, Denver with the highest scoring offense in history, limited to 28:07 vs 31:53 in TOP vs a top ranked defense and scored 8 points. TOP could have been more in NYG favor if they had a have decent offense.
Given the fact that ATL averages 35 ppg I don't think it's ridiculous to think that NE struggles to slow down their offense, but given the fact that NE allows 16 points a game i don't think its ridiculous to say they won't hold them under 28. I mean the TT is set so high for the opponent of the team with the best scoring defense because it's expected they're going to give up more points than normal.
I may be Joe Public as well but give me a team with a legit offense, a half decent defense, the GOAT quarterback and GOAT coach and I'll have no issues laying 3 points in the biggest game of the year, even if they don't cover.
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