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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    If you made money from live betting MNF, read this...

    TheSquare
    sydneys-best
    wolfman50
    Trafalgar
    mafioso
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 2587
    Posts: 13
     
    TheSquare
    TheSquare
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    Joined: Mar, 2009
    Posts: 16397
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 4:40 AM ET #1

    So you took the:

     

    -Cheif's live plus points. Various lines throughout the game from +3.5 all the way up to +10.5

     

    -Live game OVER. Moved gradually from 63 all the way up to 105.5.

     

    -Fluctuating Ram's money line.  Anywhere from minus whatever to even +125 in the last minutes of the 4th quarter

     

    -Fluctuating Ram's spread.  Anywhere from -2.5 to even +1.5


    The majority of them cashed right? moneybag You think you're smarter than the books right? an_razz You're bragging to all all your friends and co-workers about the loads of money you made from tonights game right? an_wink  Live betting just so fuckin easy and it's the "smart" way to bet right?

     

    WRONG! You're dead f*ckin wrong.

     

    Quoting Jay Kornegay, a respected odds maker and VP of the Superbook and once the odds maker for the Westgate Sportsbook, he tweeted this out on Monday night about the game:

    "If this were the Super Bowl, the game went into overtime, and then ended with a safety, I’m not sure we would open the next day. #thisgamehaseverything.”

    an_roll_laugh

    Here's the article link, it's a pretty comical read about how the books got WRECKED with the live betting on the Cheif's spread and the OVER:

    https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/7c5c1217-ec94-11e8-a97c-0a73013d6078/Chiefs-and-Rams-give-Vegas-a-night-it-will-never-forget

    I highly caution all us bettors about using live betting because the majority of the time, there are very slim oppourtunities, bad lines and you will just be throwing good money after the bad.  Stick to the traditional pre-game and half time sports betting because live betting has HIGHER JUICE and usually worse odds.

    Also, if you don't believe me that live betting is the wrong way to go, just try it again this Saturday or Sunday. an_wink It's not as easy as you think it is and Monday night's game was a really RARE gem for live betting.  I just can't wait to see all these people piss back their profits to live betting becasue they think it's easy. an_brickan_burningbag

    BOL fellow covers members... peace_5clover

    **On a side note, I did take the Cheif's live line of +9.5 ONCE and the Ram's live ml of -140 ONCE.**

    "Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    So you took the:

     

    -Cheif's live plus points. Various lines throughout the game from +3.5 all the way up to +10.5

     

    -Live game OVER. Moved gradually from 63 all the way up to 105.5.

     

    -Fluctuating Ram's money line.  Anywhere from minus whatever to even +125 in the last minutes of the 4th quarter

     

    -Fluctuating Ram's spread.  Anywhere from -2.5 to even +1.5


    The majority of them cashed right? moneybag You think you're smarter than the books right? an_razz You're bragging to all all your friends and co-workers about the loads of money you made from tonights game right? an_wink  Live betting just so fuckin easy and it's the "smart" way to bet right?

     

    WRONG! You're dead f*ckin wrong.

     

    Quoting Jay Kornegay, a respected odds maker and VP of the Superbook and once the odds maker for the Westgate Sportsbook, he tweeted this out on Monday night about the game:

    "If this were the Super Bowl, the game went into overtime, and then ended with a safety, I’m not sure we would open the next day. #thisgamehaseverything.”

    an_roll_laugh

    Here's the article link, it's a pretty comical read about how the books got WRECKED with the live betting on the Cheif's spread and the OVER:

    https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/7c5c1217-ec94-11e8-a97c-0a73013d6078/Chiefs-and-Rams-give-Vegas-a-night-it-will-never-forget

    I highly caution all us bettors about using live betting because the majority of the time, there are very slim oppourtunities, bad lines and you will just be throwing good money after the bad.  Stick to the traditional pre-game and half time sports betting because live betting has HIGHER JUICE and usually worse odds.

    Also, if you don't believe me that live betting is the wrong way to go, just try it again this Saturday or Sunday. an_wink It's not as easy as you think it is and Monday night's game was a really RARE gem for live betting.  I just can't wait to see all these people piss back their profits to live betting becasue they think it's easy. an_brickan_burningbag

    BOL fellow covers members... peace_5clover

    **On a side note, I did take the Cheif's live line of +9.5 ONCE and the Ram's live ml of -140 ONCE.**

     
    sydneys-best
    sydneys-best
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    Participation Meter
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    Posts: 5084
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 5:06 AM ET #2

    Correct    thumbs_up

    Being challenged in life is inevitable ... Being defeated in life is optional ...
    Reply

    Correct    thumbs_up

     
    wolfman50
    wolfman50
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    Posts: 568
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 6:09 AM ET #3

    Eh, it just depends.  There are a bunch of times where you can take a live line when you get a 4Q drive with a team down 2+ scores needing to score to cover the live playing against a soft defense that will allow everything underneath to be completed at +juice, sometimes by a good bit.  These lines are usually off imo and have absolutely made money for me the last few years taking live bets in these situations 
    Reply
    Eh, it just depends.  There are a bunch of times where you can take a live line when you get a 4Q drive with a team down 2+ scores needing to score to cover the live playing against a soft defense that will allow everything underneath to be completed at +juice, sometimes by a good bit.  These lines are usually off imo and have absolutely made money for me the last few years taking live bets in these situations 
     
    Trafalgar
    Trafalgar
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    Posts: 656
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 7:50 AM ET #4

    Don't buy it, betting live is absolutely the way to go in certain circumstances.
    Reply
    Don't buy it, betting live is absolutely the way to go in certain circumstances.
     
    mafioso
    mafioso
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    Posts: 2665
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 8:22 AM ET #5

    I haven't bet a game in almost two years

    It's been all live betting

    And I love it

    I went from being an average win some lose some

    To having 4 locals take away my live betting privileges.

    Now 

    I deal with a offshore again

    It's not for everyone

    But I have written here in the past all the positives for me 

    Live betting

     

    Reply

    I haven't bet a game in almost two years

    It's been all live betting

    And I love it

    I went from being an average win some lose some

    To having 4 locals take away my live betting privileges.

    Now 

    I deal with a offshore again

    It's not for everyone

    But I have written here in the past all the positives for me 

    Live betting

     

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Joined: Dec, 2004
    Posts: 14064
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 10:26 AM ET #6

    Live betting is a skill set all its own...

    There is a steep learning curve with any process of learning a new skill set...

    And if you are not dedicated to learning it...just try it now and then to "see what happens"...you are very likely going to get burned...

    Once you do learn it though...it can be a very useful tool in your wagering tool belt...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
    Reply
    Live betting is a skill set all its own...

    There is a steep learning curve with any process of learning a new skill set...

    And if you are not dedicated to learning it...just try it now and then to "see what happens"...you are very likely going to get burned...

    Once you do learn it though...it can be a very useful tool in your wagering tool belt...

     
    Overkast
    Overkast
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    Joined: Dec, 2009
    Posts: 13
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 11:04 AM ET #7

    So any tips to live betting?

    Reply

    So any tips to live betting?

     
    Titusblink
    Titusblink
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    Posts: 6738
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 11:55 AM ET #8

    Great post. Agreed amigo, live betting is truly 'enter at your own risk' territory and for a number of years, first added significantly to my losses and as I turned losses into profits, cut out of my profits... This is actually very similar to me betting college football or sports I know enough to think I know what I'm doing but have no real edge..... But and a big BUT, there is value in live betting - as you said you often get bad odds; but bad odds on one side are good odds on the other... while live betting WILL NEVER be a tool I leverage to make any material change to my bank roll, I will dabble and tend to do marginally well. I have learned this the hard way, climbing the learning curve... Your +9.5 Chiefs is a case in point - you found value.... Situationalally, there is value to be had but rule of thumb - I assume that books rely on live betting being emotional. If odds seem too good to be true, THEY ARE and if they are not, oh well, we missed one opportunity, so be it...

    Reply

    Great post. Agreed amigo, live betting is truly 'enter at your own risk' territory and for a number of years, first added significantly to my losses and as I turned losses into profits, cut out of my profits... This is actually very similar to me betting college football or sports I know enough to think I know what I'm doing but have no real edge..... But and a big BUT, there is value in live betting - as you said you often get bad odds; but bad odds on one side are good odds on the other... while live betting WILL NEVER be a tool I leverage to make any material change to my bank roll, I will dabble and tend to do marginally well. I have learned this the hard way, climbing the learning curve... Your +9.5 Chiefs is a case in point - you found value.... Situationalally, there is value to be had but rule of thumb - I assume that books rely on live betting being emotional. If odds seem too good to be true, THEY ARE and if they are not, oh well, we missed one opportunity, so be it...

     
    Vectorfsm
    Vectorfsm
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    Posts: 421
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 11:57 AM ET #9

    My only live bet last night was $1k for over 21.5 in the 2nd QUARTER.

    I made that bet because the chiefs were on the fucking 1 yard line and the end of the first.

    THE ONLY reason I hit that is because there were 2 defensive TDs that literally took zero time off the clock.

    That was an extremely lucky cover.

    Reply

    My only live bet last night was $1k for over 21.5 in the 2nd QUARTER.

    I made that bet because the chiefs were on the fucking 1 yard line and the end of the first.

    THE ONLY reason I hit that is because there were 2 defensive TDs that literally took zero time off the clock.

    That was an extremely lucky cover.

     
    Vectorfsm
    Vectorfsm
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    Posts: 421
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 12:02 PM ET #10

    Anyway, the real keys in live betting are this:

    There are many games where the score isn't telling the true story, and it's pretty obvious the eventual outcome will be different.

    When a line comes out that is based on the score, bet the true story.

    Never live bet unless you've been WATCHING THE ENTIRE GAME.

    That's it.

    Reply

    Anyway, the real keys in live betting are this:

    There are many games where the score isn't telling the true story, and it's pretty obvious the eventual outcome will be different.

    When a line comes out that is based on the score, bet the true story.

    Never live bet unless you've been WATCHING THE ENTIRE GAME.

    That's it.

     
    _Guru_
    _Guru_
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    Posts: 397
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 1:50 PM ET #11

    Imagine live betting the Saints every week.

    Its been fun.

    Reply

    Imagine live betting the Saints every week.

    Its been fun.

     
    AllDay51
    AllDay51
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2018 - 6:03 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    So you took the:   -Cheif's live plus points. Various lines throughout the game from +3.5 all the way up to +10.5   -Live game OVER. Moved gradually from 63 all the way up to 105.5.   -Fluctuating Ram's money line.  Anywhere from minus whatever to even +125 in the last minutes of the 4th quarter   -Fluctuating Ram's spread.  Anywhere from -2.5 to even +1.5 The majority of them cashed right?  You think you're smarter than the books right?  You're bragging to all all your friends and co-workers about the loads of money you made from tonights game right?   Live betting just so fuckin easy and it's the "smart" way to bet right?   WRONG! You're dead f*ckin wrong.   Quoting Jay Kornegay, a respected odds maker and VP of the Superbook and once the odds maker for the Westgate Sportsbook, he tweeted this out on Monday night about the game: "If this were the Super Bowl, the game went into overtime, and then ended with a safety, I’m not sure we would open the next day. #thisgamehaseverything.” Here's the article link, it's a pretty comical read about how the books got WRECKED with the live betting on the Cheif's spread and the OVER: https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/7c5c1217-ec94-11e8-a97c-0a73013d6078/Chiefs-and-Rams-give-Vegas-a-night-it-will-never-forget I highly caution all us bettors about using live betting because the majority of the time, there are very slim oppourtunities, bad lines and you will just be throwing good money after the bad.  Stick to the traditional pre-game and half time sports betting because live betting has HIGHER JUICE and usually worse odds. Also, if you don't believe me that live betting is the wrong way to go, just try it again this Saturday or Sunday.  It's not as easy as you think it is and Monday night's game was a really RARE gem for live betting.  I just can't wait to see all these people piss back their profits to live betting becasue they think it's easy.  BOL fellow covers members...  **On a side note, I did take the Cheif's live line of +9.5 ONCE and the Ram's live ml of -140 ONCE.**

     

    you're right I had wagers placed on Friday and the live bets seemed good but the juice was like -130+ I didn't take any, I wouldve won but this is a game we will never see a repeat go again! ill admit at one point kc was down 10 I took them +255 ML lol 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    So you took the:   -Cheif's live plus points. Various lines throughout the game from +3.5 all the way up to +10.5   -Live game OVER. Moved gradually from 63 all the way up to 105.5.   -Fluctuating Ram's money line.  Anywhere from minus whatever to even +125 in the last minutes of the 4th quarter   -Fluctuating Ram's spread.  Anywhere from -2.5 to even +1.5 The majority of them cashed right?  You think you're smarter than the books right?  You're bragging to all all your friends and co-workers about the loads of money you made from tonights game right?   Live betting just so fuckin easy and it's the "smart" way to bet right?   WRONG! You're dead f*ckin wrong.   Quoting Jay Kornegay, a respected odds maker and VP of the Superbook and once the odds maker for the Westgate Sportsbook, he tweeted this out on Monday night about the game: "If this were the Super Bowl, the game went into overtime, and then ended with a safety, I’m not sure we would open the next day. #thisgamehaseverything.” Here's the article link, it's a pretty comical read about how the books got WRECKED with the live betting on the Cheif's spread and the OVER: https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/7c5c1217-ec94-11e8-a97c-0a73013d6078/Chiefs-and-Rams-give-Vegas-a-night-it-will-never-forget I highly caution all us bettors about using live betting because the majority of the time, there are very slim oppourtunities, bad lines and you will just be throwing good money after the bad.  Stick to the traditional pre-game and half time sports betting because live betting has HIGHER JUICE and usually worse odds. Also, if you don't believe me that live betting is the wrong way to go, just try it again this Saturday or Sunday.  It's not as easy as you think it is and Monday night's game was a really RARE gem for live betting.  I just can't wait to see all these people piss back their profits to live betting becasue they think it's easy.  BOL fellow covers members...  **On a side note, I did take the Cheif's live line of +9.5 ONCE and the Ram's live ml of -140 ONCE.**

     

    you're right I had wagers placed on Friday and the live bets seemed good but the juice was like -130+ I didn't take any, I wouldve won but this is a game we will never see a repeat go again! ill admit at one point kc was down 10 I took them +255 ML lol 

     
     
    DollarAndaDream
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    Joined: Dec, 2007
    Posts: 111
    Posted: Nov. 21, 2018 - 5:54 AM ET #13

    I disagree.  Live betting is where I make my money, and my win percentage drastically got higher as I learned more about it.

    You just have to know what you're doing, and be patient. 

    I agree that it is not 'so easy'.  It took me about a year to learn and get a feel for it.  But once you do, you can really find value in the lines (remember, the oddsmakers spend a lot of time in the NFL coming up with sharp lines.  They don't have that luxury live while the game is going on, and lines are posted every 15-30 seconds.  You just need to have a little experience under your belt dealing with line wagers, and you can really find weaknesses.  BUT if a person isn't patient and disciplined, they can easily get hooked on throwing money at a team that's winning at the moment, and get burned on what I call the 'rubberband-effect', when the other team adjusts/settles in/etc.  Also, someone with no discipline can easily go on tilt by throwing good money after bad on a team that's losing, thinking they will make a comeback and it never happens in that particular game.  These were all lessons I learned the hard way in my first season, but I learned valuable lessons (luckily I was betting smaller back then). 
    My advice would be to start by betting small, and just test it out. 

    Don't get caught up betting every juicy line you see....keep it to a few bets per game at first.
    Be patient and disciplined (if you know you're not, then probably a good idea to stay away).
    As someone else above mentioned, make sure you watch the whole game.

     

     

     

    Reply

    I disagree.  Live betting is where I make my money, and my win percentage drastically got higher as I learned more about it.

    You just have to know what you're doing, and be patient. 

    I agree that it is not 'so easy'.  It took me about a year to learn and get a feel for it.  But once you do, you can really find value in the lines (remember, the oddsmakers spend a lot of time in the NFL coming up with sharp lines.  They don't have that luxury live while the game is going on, and lines are posted every 15-30 seconds.  You just need to have a little experience under your belt dealing with line wagers, and you can really find weaknesses.  BUT if a person isn't patient and disciplined, they can easily get hooked on throwing money at a team that's winning at the moment, and get burned on what I call the 'rubberband-effect', when the other team adjusts/settles in/etc.  Also, someone with no discipline can easily go on tilt by throwing good money after bad on a team that's losing, thinking they will make a comeback and it never happens in that particular game.  These were all lessons I learned the hard way in my first season, but I learned valuable lessons (luckily I was betting smaller back then). 
    My advice would be to start by betting small, and just test it out. 

    Don't get caught up betting every juicy line you see....keep it to a few bets per game at first.
    Be patient and disciplined (if you know you're not, then probably a good idea to stay away).
    As someone else above mentioned, make sure you watch the whole game.

     

     

     

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