IH8ColdWeather NFL Week 11

NFL Week 11

Full Disclaimer: I have the Eagles to win the division taken before the season starts at +100. So, ideally, an Eagles win would be huge for that bet. However, I just see 4 points as too much in a divisional game between these two teams. Yes, the Eagles defense has improved and their LB and rookie CB are playing excellent but this team can still be passed on. Do not let the pathetic Cowboys fool you into thinking that Philadelphia is better than they are. The only thing that gives me hesitation is the Eagles starters getting extra rest against the Cowboys while the Commanders played a physical game against Pittsburgh. I still like taking the Commanders plus the points in this spot, I think this game will be close and it will be a shootout. 

TNF:

Commanders +4 (-110) - 5 units

Commanders/Eagles 1st Q OVER 9.5 (-130) - 2 units

Zach Ertz OVER 35.5 yards (-115) - 1 unit

Terry McClaurin OVER 4.5 receptions - 2 units

Eagles win by 3 would be perfect. BOL. 

Seems like the whole forum is on the Eagles.....

@Ih8coldweather

Commanders +4 (-110) - 5 units 

Commanders/Eagles 1st Q OVER 9.5 (-130) - 2 units 

Zach Ertz OVER 35.5 yards (-115) - 1 unit 

Terry McClaurin OVER 4.5 receptions - 2 units 

We start the week 8 units in the hole. I am going to try a similar approach to last week, where I went heavy on Wong teasers and ended up combining a few of them to make a six team, 6-point teaser at 6/1 odds. This week, my favorite play is the Cleveland Browns. Yes, this is one of those ugly hold your nose and bet games but the line and spot immediately jumped out at me and I do believe that professional money immediately moved the line. The line opened as NO -1.5 and has flipped completely to Cleveland -1 and -1.5 in several books. 

NFL Week 11

Browns PK (-105) - 10 units

Steelers +3.5 (-130) - 5 units

2T 6-point teaser: Packers PK/Chiefs +8.5 (-120) - 10 units

2T 6-point teaser: Vikings PK/Dolphins -1 (-120) - 10 units

6T 6-point teaser (bet prior to TNF) - 6 units pays 36 units

**You can substitute Texans -1 vs. Cowboys or Bengals +7.5 vs. Chargers in place of the Commanders**

Commanders +9.5 

Packers PK

Browns +7.5

Vikings PK

Steelers +9.5

KC Chiefs +8.5

Additional leans but no official play yet:

Lions -13 (-124) 

Seahawks +7 (-123)

@Ih8coldweather

 Careful betting rec.props vs eagles...our rookie CB top 10 in the league already and slay is probably still top 15-20...plus another rookie playing well in slot

GL today

@Ih8coldweather

 Bol today

@vankiep_0007

 @D-Town

Cleveland Browns @ NO Saints 

The Browns are coming off of a bye which means that Stefanski has extra time to prepare for this NO team which is a good let down spot of a divisional win against Atlanta. I think they will be flat here. The Browns are completely HEALTHY for the first time all year. They have their entire O-line intact which I would argue is a top 5 O-line when healthy (Lions, Eagles, Browns, Colts, Cowboys) and their defense is also healthy. I can't say the same about the Saints who are depleted at WR, and have some injuries on the offensive line with guys banged up.

Jamies is also in a revenge spot playing against his old team that let him go, I think he will come out extra motived. As long as he can take care of the ball I see this being a competitive game but I really like the Browns in this spot. 

Also, the Browns are top 5 in pressure rating this year. Who is horrible against the pass rush? Derek Carr. Myles Garrett will be going up against a rookie tackle...

Gimme the Browns.

Vikings at the Titans

Last week the Vikings had over 402 yards of total offense. Their turnovers included an INT in the end zone, an INT on the 2 yard line, and an INT deep in opponent territory. Darnold looked like his old self and they left so many points on the board and almost lost. They outgained the Jaguars 402 to 143 yards on offense, and I would expect Darnold to take better care of the ball in this game. 

Will Levis? How will he move the ball against this Vikings defense and how will he handle a Brian Flores blitz?

The Vikings are the #1 blitzing team in the league and the #1 pressure team. 

Will Levis PFF grade is 28.4 vs the blitz = last among 39 qualified QBS

Will Levis PFF grade is 27.5 vs pressure = last among 38 qualified QBs

Will Levis passer rating in a clean pocket is 92.1 vs pressure it is just 47. 

He looked half decent against a Chargers team because the Chargers are 31st in generating pressure, and they just drop back into zone usually. That is not what this Vikings team does and I think they are going to confuse Levis all day. 

The Browns are the most healthy they have been all season...Browns today for me as well 

Less thinking. More quantifying.

Have you noticed you have so much to say before the game starts and then nothing after? Trust me, it's much better talking after the fact. Remember, don't take really bad teams off a bye if their favored, regardless of what you think.

And I went back and looked at all your future wagers that won't cash. The number is really bad. My favorite predictions were the Browns and Panthers to win their divisions.

@C-70Blues

Here he is again. Nothing better to do than to hang out in my thread. I must live rent free in your head. Let me guess, you posted another single game prop for one unit? You are a fucking loser dude. 

Those are pre-season futures and I have Jared Goff as MVP at 20/1, Saquon Barkley for offensive player of the year at 30/1, and I have live futures on the Steelers at 40/1 and exacta matchup for Lions/Chiefs at 6.5/1, Eagles beating Chiefs in SB, Eagles winning the Division, and Texans beating the division. You think I just stopped betting futures after preseason and didn't change my positions after every 4 weeks. 

Again, go post a bet man that is more than a single player prop you clown. 

NFL Week 11

Browns PK (-105) - 10 units 

Steelers +3.5 (-130) - 5 units 

2T 6-point teaser: Packers PK/Chiefs +8.5 (-120) - 10 units 

2T 6-point teaser: Vikings PK/Dolphins -1 (-120) - 10 units 

6T 6-point teaser (bet prior to TNF) - 6 units pays 36 units 

**You can substitute Texans -1 vs. Cowboys or Bengals +7.5 vs. Chargers in place of the Commanders**

Commanders +9.5 

Packers PK

Browns +7.5

Vikings PK

Steelers +9.5

KC Chiefs +8.5

Down 11 units on Sunday based on posted plays, I ended up taking Lions -13 and Seahawks +7, and had Bengals +7.5 in a teaser. Doesn't count because it wasn't posted, but for C-blue70 and the rest of the losers who have nothing better to do, we are down 11 units on posted plays Sunday and down 8 units on Thursday with the Commanders and props. 

Tonight I have Texans -1 in teasers and Texans -6.5. I also have Texans -1.5 first Q for small, but I like this as Houston usually gets off to a fast start.