IH8ColdWeather NFL Week 5

Just got back from Vegas. Will try to provide some write up and trends that super my picks before games but it will be tough as I have a wedding to attend tonight. 

Panthers +4 (-105)

Bengals +3 (-125)

Cardinals +7.5 (-113)

Steelers -2 (-112)

Saints +6 (-117)

Playing the Panthers because they have a solid run game (#2 PFF) which should keep the game close and ease the game for Dalton. Bears pass defense is great, their run D not so much. The Bears have no business laying more than 3 points IMO, and weather may play into the Panthers favor.

Bengals at home as a dog? Baltimore coming off a huge win. I think we’ve seen this before. Burrow has been clicking, like for him to keep things going here and get a big win for the Bengals at home.

Cardinals in a division game after getting embarrassed, SF with a lot of injuries. This one smells like a back door cover late. I will take the points.

Dallas…who barely beat the NYG, is on the ROAD against Tomlin off a loss. Tomlin is good in these spots, and Dallas D is atrocious. Now they lose Parsons and Lawrence their two primary edge guys. They have no depth on defense, as Donte Fowler and Dorance Armstrong left with Dan Quinn to go to Washington. Steelers at home with  rookie LT going up against Watt…

If you like Steelers then you probably like the Under too

Fields has never beaten a team that’s scored over 20 points

GL on your plays and your marriage

Got the bengals but at +2.5

the Ravens allow the most 20+ yard passes in the league 

GL  on your plays @Ih8coldweather

BOL

@Biscuit

I’m not the one getting married 

Let’s win this week. 

@soup-can

@Macwestie1 

@Supat125

 
Bengals and Steelers are probably my two favorite plays this week. 

LOVE the bengals pick, any thoughts on Buffalo/Houston? I like the Bills to bounce back after getting embarrassed, Houston during the Stroud era has struggled beating top tier teams and they are a different style running team than Baltimore, more finesse than power, Houston's secondary is not to be trusted at this point and they've been an undisciplined team committing the most penalties thus far. I'm still debating on whether to pull the trigger on the jets for the early game. Sometimes you have to let the line tell the story and the Vikings will come down to Earth at some point, the question is when, if something looks too good to be true (with Minnesota -2), it probably is. If the game were in Minnesota, I don't think the line would be any more than 3-3.5. Good luck this week.

Nice card brother..BOL

@Wizerguy

 Thank you sir 

Important trends to consider:

Arizona at SF

• Teams to lose by 28 points or more the previous week (Cardinals) and are dogs of 4 or more points the following week cover the spread at 62% ATS in the past 20 years
• If a team that lost by 17 points or more plays a team that won by 17 or more the previous week, the underdog covers at 60% ATS in the past 20 years
• Division dogs are 56% ATS since 2020
• NFL dogs of 6 or more points are 9-8 SU, 14-2-1 ATS in the first 4 weeks this year

Saints at Chiefs

• A difference of 28 spots or more between two teams in luck rankings = dog covering 65% ATS
• If the team that is unlucky is on the ROAD, covering at 78% ATS
• Pat Mahomes as a favorite of more than a FG = under 50% ATS
• Derek Carr, as an underdog, if he is playing a team that scores less than 21 points in a game, he has a top 5 ATS record among QBs (the chiefs are averaging 18 points a game.)

Colts at Jaguars

Colts are 14-26-2 overall vs Jacksonville in last 20 years

Colts are 1-7 against Jacksonville since  2020

2-15-1 against Jacksonville since 2015

-Trevor Lawrence is 5-1 ATS vs Colts in his career

-Lawrence is 3-0 ATS at home covering by 23 points/game

-Jags have won the last 8 games in this matchup when they are hosting the colts

Added:

Houston Texans -1

Jaguars ML (-190)

So far 2-1-1 today, feel sorry for the Bengals who did everything right to win the game, muffed hold on a FG to win the game...

Panthers +4 

Bengals +3 (-125) 

Houston Texans -1 

Jaguars ML (-190) 

Cardinals +7.5 (-113) 

Steelers -2 (-112)  

Saints +6 (-117)  

3-1-1, lets finish strong. 

Panthers +4 

Bengals +3 (-125) 

Houston Texans -1 

Jaguars ML (-190) 

Cardinals +7.5 (-113) 

Steelers -2 (-112)  

Saints +6 (-117)  

that Bengals game was wild, then the OT was crazy

still can't believe the Ravens won