@Yanasaur
Love the Titans this week against Willis. Dont know who the Packers thought they were fooling by bringing Love on to the practice field. He’s not going to play with Minn on deck.
Titans strength (run defense) will help neutralize Jacob’s and that will force Willis to try to win the game with his arm. As long as Levi’s doesn’t do anything stupid Tenn should win and cover.
I bought out of my position on Texans and instead I have added the Ravens to the official card. Taking a look at these two games, I really do not like CJ Strouds record on the road as a favorite, even though from a talent standpoint i would argue the Texans are more talented and Stroud is a better QB than Darnold. I also do not like that Joe Mixon, who was a big part of their week 1 offense will also be out this game.
Official Card:
Titans -2.5
Steelers -1
Panthers +6
Ravens -1
Falcons +3.5
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
This is the best bet on the board. I am convinced of it. The way the professional money has come on the Titans, and anyone watching any football the past two weeks would tell you the same and tell you that this is the correct side for this game. Sure, Will Levis can make another stupid play and this bet could go down in flames but when betting the number and in this spot, the Titans are the play.
One could argue that the Titans should be 2-0 right now. Then reason I like them in this spot is because their strength (their defense, specifically their run defense) will neutralize the Packers entire game plan which is to run the ball. The Packers rushed the ball 53 times last game, compared to Willis throwing it just 14 times. That should tell you all that you need to know about how much Matt Lafluer trusts him to run the offense, especially since Willis missed most of training camp. But this Titans defensive line is no Colts line, who failed to get any stops, especially after Buckner went down. The Packers will not rush for 261 on the ground this game. The Titans will just load the box and force Malik to beat them and I just don't see that happening on the road.
Conversely, the Titans rushing attack has not been all that bad. Through 2 games Pollard is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. If you look at the Packers front 7, and evaluate them from the first two games and going back to last year, their run defense is their weak spot. They have excellent edge rushers in Preston Smith and Rashan Gary (dark horse for leading the league in sacks), but they can be run on up the middle. I see the Titans successfully running the ball to make things easier for Levis, who will hopefully be able to limit his turnovers.
From a historical trend perspective, in the past 20 years 0-2 teams facing against non 0-and-2 team in week three has covered at a rate of 60% ATS
Winless favorites against teams with at least one win = 65% ATS
Winless HOME favorites against a team with at least one win = 71% ATS
Jordan Love is not going to play in this game. Complete bluff from the Packers and their training staff. The fact that they may bring him back next week with a known MCL strain which usually requires at least 4 weeks to properly heal tells me that they are not going to play him and jeopardize his health against a good Tennessee rush.
One also has to factor in the look ahead spot for the Packers who have divisional opponent Vikings on deck and therefore this may be a look ahead spot for them. All the signs point to the Titans for me on this one and this will be my best bet of the week.
Titans -2.5
Agree Pitt -1
A lot of pro bettors see Herbert> Fields, otherwise shouldn't this game should be Pitt-3?
I get it, but it's not like he ever has flawless games.....Noone knows the condition of Herbert's ankle--
Fields is only asked to throw to the sidleines on safe out paterns about 12 times, but a hobbling Herbert facing TJ Watts & Co. .....
@kings_duce
I love Atlanta as well. The professional money that has moved this line from 4 all the way down to 2.5 at some books…
Joe Square should hammer the Chiefs at the end of the day, especially if it is another public slaughter. Not sure if it is worth waiting until kickoff to see if you can get the best of the number if you didn’t have Atlanta at +3.5.
closing line value and getting the best of this number is key, especially if the game somehow lands on 3. Kind of like the Bears/Texans situation last week.
As of now, through three weeks of NFL football, we haven't seen a double digit favorite in the NFL.
The average line for favorites is 4.1 - that is the lowest for any first three weeks since 1983....
Chargers/Steelers - the line has moved to 3. This is the first game Jim Harbough has been an underdog in the NFL since December 2014 when Colin Kapernick faced Russel Wilson. Harbough is 9-8 SU as a dog in the NFL since 1990. Here is the list of coaches above 500 as dog (at least 17 games coached)
1. Matt LaFluer
2. Mike Tomlin
You're supposed to back winless against the spread dogs, they are 102-66-2 (61% ATS) since 2015 and 56% in the past 20 years. That is the following teams this week.
1. Giants +6.5
2. Panthers +6
3. Dolphins +4
4. Rams +6
Established in 1995,
on your plays 
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