For those new, or need a reminder – this is what to expect from me this NFL season:
What I do: · · Give out NFL sides with widely available spreads / prices · Assign a unit value of 1-5 · Keep a posted record · Games posted between Sat night and Sun morning, and day of game for Thurs / Mon games. · Release all at the same time · All are based on my own personal process developed over time which consists of a simulation model, and lots of experience.
What I won’t do: · Ask for money (I actually make more money than it would ever be worth to tout) · Make any affiliate money (I make money from sports gambling) · Give out plays that I don’t bet with my own money (I make money betting) · Keep vig in my units record. Assign whatever vig you want. One of my core principles is finding best lines and prices. If you choose to pay -110 for something that is widely available at -102, then that is on you. I don’t mind if you assign -110 to all of my plays – do whatever you want. I post very fair widely available lines that average -104ish prices. I have had 7 winning seasons no matter how much vig you assign.
Why I do this: · I have been in the online sports gambling space for 25 years. I like it. · I will occasionally ask you to support your local animal shelter. I like to think that some do.
My Record: · I have won documented for 7 straight seasons. Last season I won 64 units, and went about 58% (which has been about average for the 7 year run). Probably means I am due to lose. You bet, you take responsibility.
What I ask from you: · Play nice at all times. Remember what you are paying for these picks · If you win, or if you lose and had fun – please consider donating to your local animal shelter
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
For those new, or need a reminder – this is what to expect from me this NFL season:
What I do: · · Give out NFL sides with widely available spreads / prices · Assign a unit value of 1-5 · Keep a posted record · Games posted between Sat night and Sun morning, and day of game for Thurs / Mon games. · Release all at the same time · All are based on my own personal process developed over time which consists of a simulation model, and lots of experience.
What I won’t do: · Ask for money (I actually make more money than it would ever be worth to tout) · Make any affiliate money (I make money from sports gambling) · Give out plays that I don’t bet with my own money (I make money betting) · Keep vig in my units record. Assign whatever vig you want. One of my core principles is finding best lines and prices. If you choose to pay -110 for something that is widely available at -102, then that is on you. I don’t mind if you assign -110 to all of my plays – do whatever you want. I post very fair widely available lines that average -104ish prices. I have had 7 winning seasons no matter how much vig you assign.
Why I do this: · I have been in the online sports gambling space for 25 years. I like it. · I will occasionally ask you to support your local animal shelter. I like to think that some do.
My Record: · I have won documented for 7 straight seasons. Last season I won 64 units, and went about 58% (which has been about average for the 7 year run). Probably means I am due to lose. You bet, you take responsibility.
What I ask from you: · Play nice at all times. Remember what you are paying for these picks · If you win, or if you lose and had fun – please consider donating to your local animal shelter
Putting these up early week 1 as lines should be stable. Monday not included.
Anticipating the questions... I am not a "good to X" line guy if lines move. I BET NUMBERS NOT TEAMS. I do not pretend that -3 is similar in any way to -3.5. Line and price are inextricably connected. If a line / price combination moves, my stake becomes bigger or smaller. If stake becomes small enough at the available line / price, it is a no bet (like the leans on Colts and Lions). I never chase a line/price combination because a team is "going to win" no matter what. Happy to discuss further.
Units in week 1 are always going to be lower than subsequent weeks. I rely heavily on "traction" for determining staking, my word for standard deviation range in backtesting my model to determine staking. Week 1 I have no history, no backtesting, and therefore lower units risked.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
13
Putting these up early week 1 as lines should be stable. Monday not included.
Anticipating the questions... I am not a "good to X" line guy if lines move. I BET NUMBERS NOT TEAMS. I do not pretend that -3 is similar in any way to -3.5. Line and price are inextricably connected. If a line / price combination moves, my stake becomes bigger or smaller. If stake becomes small enough at the available line / price, it is a no bet (like the leans on Colts and Lions). I never chase a line/price combination because a team is "going to win" no matter what. Happy to discuss further.
Units in week 1 are always going to be lower than subsequent weeks. I rely heavily on "traction" for determining staking, my word for standard deviation range in backtesting my model to determine staking. Week 1 I have no history, no backtesting, and therefore lower units risked.
I assume the number like -3.25 means its 3 with extra juice like -120 for example, and opposite on +3.25 so 3 at +105 or +110 for example? Always look forward to your threads, thanks for sharing.
Half the wager on -3, half on -3.5.
Juice comes to about -100
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:
I assume the number like -3.25 means its 3 with extra juice like -120 for example, and opposite on +3.25 so 3 at +105 or +110 for example? Always look forward to your threads, thanks for sharing.
I thought most of the lines looked reasonable when they came out, but the one that really stood out to me was the Colts, Most of the public on the other side, What do you see that John Q does not?
0
Thank you sir.
????
I thought most of the lines looked reasonable when they came out, but the one that really stood out to me was the Colts, Most of the public on the other side, What do you see that John Q does not?
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