Posted:
#1
Hey every, last week was a good week! hit a 5 team teaser to help boost things
last week: 6-3 lines, 0-2 parlays +9.55 units
YTD: 23-18-1, +20.08 units
I've been busy, so I'll try to keep it short with my plays and leans. I will try to first expand on the Cowboys play and some of my other leans, but will start off with Cowboys first and add the rest before Sunday (won't have time to watch the AM game on Sunday)
SEA @ DAL
I have been going against my Cowboys....did so against NE and did so against the Giants last week! So, so far I've been 2-0. That being said, I see this as a really good spot for the Cowboys, despite their controversial QB play. We learned a lot from last week. I said it at the beginning of the year that Darren Mcfadden should start for the Cowboys, and all my buddies laughed at me and said he would be a bust or get injured. Well, we learned last week that McFadden can carry the rock as he torched a good (before last week) NYG run D for 152 yards and a 5.2 yard/carry average. He WILL be able to run behind this Cowboys offensive line, especially on this Seattle D-line that just hasn't looked the same this year. He will get the ground game rolling and that will open things up for Witten underneath and hopefully set up some deeper passes to Terrance Williams and Devin Sreet , and maybe even Dez Bryant (would be HUGE if he returned). I know it is risky going with the backup QB, but Cassel showed that he could make the necessary throws last week when he hit Street in the end zone while he was on the run. Hopefully, the open the playbook up for him and allow him to make throws. I think he could manage the offense against this Seattle defense which has definitely looked vulnerable at times, and hopefully limit his mistakes and avoid throwing into tight coverage. DAL still has a lot of weapons, and in pro football, line play is huge. I give the definite edge, on both the offense and defense line to Dallas.
On the other side of the ball, I think DAL defense will be able to shut down this SEA offense. DAL defense looked GOOD last week, and essentially surrendered only 13 points on the road to the Giants (7 came from the pick 6, the other 6 came from the kickoff return). I'll take 13 points on the road against a good NYG offense with a good passing attack any day. I think Dallas arguable has one of the best front 7's, Hardy can get to the QB, Tyrone Crawford brings it every play and is good against both the pass and run, and the Linebackers play well in both run and pass coverage. Specifically, Sean Lee is solid in coverage and I suspect that he will make things difficult for Jimmy Graham as he tries to catch passes down the middle. Russle Wilson only has Kearse and Lockett to throw too, and I doubt that he will have the time to sit in the pocket and let the deep plays develop given his non-existent offensive line. Point being, the Dallas pass rush will get to him early and often and it will give this Seattle offense all kinds of trouble on the road. Our two corners will be able to play with these receivers, as the Seahawks don't have a 3rd wide receiver (like they did last year in Golden Tate) that would expose our nickle corner. This will turn into a low score, field position, defensive struggle and ultimately, I think the Cowboys have enough to cover, and, MAYBE, just MAYBE, win this game outright.
The lines makers predict this to be this type of game, with the over under being set so low. I see it the same and I think it is a lot for a SEA team to be giving up almost 7 points on the road. This is a HUGE game for the boys at home, because a loss would mean that they fall to a 2-5 record and essentially be on the verge of a tailspin out of the playoffs. They know this! They will come out hungry in front of the home crowd, and they'll hit SEA in the mouth when they least expect it. With 70% of the public being on SEA, I could see this line moving all the way up to 7, so I'll wait it out and hopefully it moves there, and then I'll make it official.
BOL everyone, 
thoughts, comments, feedback are always appreciated
0
Hot Forum Topics
