In the new NFL... 6 is the new 7....

@THE_PRESIDENT

 Four to 5.5 (talking and texting)

Uh.....  once again...   NO

Buying the hook on 3 and 7 is going to cost you at least 15 cents on the dollar. Assuming you’re paying-110 on average, You’ll have to be hitting about 55.6% of those bets just to break even. Even on the other numbers 4-6 it’s still going to put you between 53.5 to 54%. Again, just to break even. Good luck with that. Even -110 makes me cringe.

I respectfully disagree Van   I would want to see all games that landed on 6 or 7 since they implemented  being able to go for two(2) not just two season worth of numbers Also I see a recency bias because of this past Sunday and Monday night game 

This is why TEASERS have been exposed as user friendly, and imho opinion offer the real VALUE out there as long as you contain the vig.

@vanzack

LOL, these numbers have been important long ago, ur just realizing it...

Wrong.

Vegas is not stupid they adjust lines accordingly  i use to always buy the half point from my local way back when then i realised if i think the game is going to come down too that half point i should not be betting it and look for another game yes the scores are different today but remember Vegas know that too. As a side note only a few hand few of times did i ever luck out by buying the half point 10 percent is what i use too have to pay for that half point money thrown away

@Chetmee

 He's the authority and is never wrong. 

Concerning matter of fact, I always side with facts.

Hello Van--Just getting back into the game and am happy to see you are still helping us all. I hope you have your best year ever.

@vanzack

 I remember reading something long ago that 5 and 5.5 pt favorites cover the least out of all the numbers. Do you know if thats true? It seems to be true in my memory, but memory is not reliable

great post, like it

@Yanasaur

 100% Never Lay 5.5. period only take

Last week, My 4 gamer I played went 3 wins - 1 push - The push was Sea -3 (bought .5) - Ticket #2 posted.

Had I not bought that hook.. my ticket was a loser. Instead I cashed +550. 

When you play 3-4 Gamers you have the room to play with the hooks.

I almost never buy the hook on single plays.  

   L is the new W 

Absolutely terrible advice.

Thanks Ken. Same to you.

@Damon102

 Above ground, may all cover members have many more. Good luck to all...

The average NFL final score is over 10 points away from the bookie line. Buying a half point at 10% can't work often enough to produce positve ev.

Thank you for the thoughtful and actionable post, van!

I am absolutely loathe to lay 6.5 or 7 because in OT you got pretty much no shot as they don't kick PATs and the odd time it actually happens that the favorite does score a TD like the Lions vs the Rams week 1 it can make a big difference to your week to get that OT cash

Absolutely! Just as NFL teams are constantly evolving and adjusting to their current environment, any Investor worth two shits stays on the cutting edge of the ever-changing information.

Stagnation and using trends, key numbers, etc... that go back 20 years without looking at their more recent record with similar rules/coaches/offensive and defensive systems/players/opponents, etc... is the road to going bust. Ask any followers of the Kirk Cousins Primetime trend on Monday Night or New England's ownership of the Jets over almost twenty years last night.

You want to win consistently; do the work and never go stale.  

Great Post. I wish there were more like it.