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Interesting take on how to bet NFL

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Posted: #26
Good post, what site do you get the percentage of winnings.
 
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Posted: #27
A huge flaw in your "system".  You started with a bank roll of only $3500 and wagered 34% of your bank roll on your first bet and lost!  Then you bet a $1000 on your next bet - that bet was 45% of your bank roll!  If you had lost that bet you'd basically be done!

If you bet more than 5% (and I think thats high) you're just asking to get wiped out regardless of your "system"
 
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Posted: #28
15-3 on the year nice trend noted for next year 
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by DroopDog:

A huge flaw in your "system".  You started with a bank roll of only $3500 and wagered 34% of your bank roll on your first bet and lost!  Then you bet a $1000 on your next bet - that bet was 45% of your bank roll!  If you had lost that bet you'd basically be done!

If you bet more than 5% (and I think thats high) you're just asking to get wiped out regardless of your "system"

I agree and it took me awhile to play disciplined..which will carry over to the NBA this season.  If you were to play NFL and NBA money management and follow a system that works you should profit every year which takes discipline.  See you next year bud 
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by heatformer:

Seen this guy for a couple years now, and I can tell ya he isn't bull crapping. Good job sir 

 Happy new year to you sir 
 
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Posted: #31
OK, just looked at VegasInsider and Green Bay is at exactly 65% right now...

 
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Posted: #32
So according to this system and if the numbers are based off of vegasinsider then Minnesota would be the play tonight. Green Bay has 65% with a line of -3.
 
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Posted: #33
I followed AFN last year and with whatever system he was utilizing then worked very well. Thanks for Buffalo today. When do you check this 65% number as it seems to be in flux. Would enjoy your feedback on the timing of the percentage check off. I also found a very interesting angle that deals with betting trends that has worked for the past 5 years and absolutely killed it this year. BTW Buff+3 was a play today which dovetailed well with AFN's pick. If he reveals his time check parameter, I will reveal my simple but profitable system.
 
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Posted: #34
"If he reveals his time check parameter, I will reveal my simple but profitable system."

He already revealed a lot, let's read it.


 
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Posted: #35
NFL 2016

Week 1

Green Bay @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Packers win (65% chance to win)
Pick Jaguars +4.5 $2000

Panthers last year looked rusty against the jags...I see the same thing happening with the packers struggling against an upgraded defense in Jacksonville...with Nelson coming off injury let's not fall for the public road chalk at -4.5

Only game on the board for week 1 that's obvious to read Vegas wants packers public money...over inflated line but no falling for it 
 
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Posted: #36
In all due respect, there is no way you can find any reliable 65% prediction success for any future game. To have done that properly, two things that don't exist would have been needed. 1. A 100 year track record on games, and 2. An NFL that was about the same for 100 years. Reason? You don't have enough data my friend. Even if you were to somehow find a metric for 65% success, which you will not in an ATS, format, it would consist of such a rare occurrence that your odds of finding more then a few games all season at that rate would be low. Now we're really talking about patience. You'd be betting on one or two games a year and if you didn't win both games you'd lose the small amount out up. Your entire approach, I'm afraid, is premised on a phantom 65% that probably will never truly exist, and if it did you would see it so rarely that it would be useless.
 
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Posted: #37
A guy called mcshady had a system similar to this. One was any 6.5 pt favorite you faded. He had an entire spread sheet with spreads and o/u lines that you would blindly take. That guy was awesome and covers booted him
 
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Posted: #38
I like the jags play

I have it in my parlay also
 
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Posted: #39
GL
 
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Posted: #40
Jags 
 
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Posted: #41
Jags are on my radar. Just want it to get to +6

Good luck this year
 
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Posted: #42
NFL Week 2 

1-0 +$2000

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns - Ravens (65% chance to win)
Pick Browns +7 $2000

I've never had a line at +7 at a 65% chance to win using the program percentage I system....Ravens only have a 65% chance to win and getting +7? Now that's great value for a home division dog.  Public all over the Ravens because they saw RG3 get injured.  Public forgot that McCown is the better quarterback.  Last season he went into Baltimore and won breaking Browns single season record with 457 yards and a 111.13 rating. 

amazes me how clueless the public can be over a superstar injury 










 
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Posted: #43
Good Job
 
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Posted: #44
NFL Week 2 

1-0 +$2000

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns - Ravens (65% chance to win)
Pick Browns +7 $2000

I've never had a line at +7 at a 65% chance to win using the program percentage I system....Ravens only have a 65% chance to win and getting +7? Now that's great value for a home division dog.  Public all over the Ravens because they saw RG3 get injured.  Public forgot that McCown is the better quarterback.  Last season he went into Baltimore and won breaking Browns single season record with 457 yards and a 111.13 rating. 

How are you following this 65% rule? Is it the percentage that is wagered on that team under the betting trends on vegas insider? In your example here the ravens/browns game is now Baltimore at 57% and -4.5. Does that mean you would not touch it now? Does the percentage on a team have to be exactly 65% or would you do somewhere around 63-66%?
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

NFL Week 2 

1-0 +$2000

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns - Ravens (65% chance to win)
Pick Browns +7 $2000

I've never had a line at +7 at a 65% chance to win using the program percentage I system....Ravens only have a 65% chance to win and getting +7? Now that's great value for a home division dog.  Public all over the Ravens because they saw RG3 get injured.  Public forgot that McCown is the better quarterback.  Last season he went into Baltimore and won breaking Browns single season record with 457 yards and a 111.13 rating. 

amazes me how clueless the public can be over a superstar injury 











I already had my eye on the Browns, especially after what happened to last year with McCown. Now seeing that you're on the same play makes me feel better about it

GL 
 
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Posted: #46
GL
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by kgeist21:

NFL Week 2 

1-0 +$2000

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns - Ravens (65% chance to win)
Pick Browns +7 $2000

I've never had a line at +7 at a 65% chance to win using the program percentage I system....Ravens only have a 65% chance to win and getting +7? Now that's great value for a home division dog.  Public all over the Ravens because they saw RG3 get injured.  Public forgot that McCown is the better quarterback.  Last season he went into Baltimore and won breaking Browns single season record with 457 yards and a 111.13 rating. 

How are you following this 65% rule? Is it the percentage that is wagered on that team under the betting trends on vegas insider? In your example here the ravens/browns game is now Baltimore at 57% and -4.5. Does that mean you would not touch it now? Does the percentage on a team have to be exactly 65% or would you do somewhere around 63-66%?


A personal program I created when I first joined covers a few years ago.  It's a program that compiles teams pure stats only or should I say a statistical model.  I then input the data to both teams that are matched to play against each other. The model takes into account 140 data points to compute the probability outcome of that matchup. 

I wanted to create the program because all other program models on the net predict the score of the game. For example, Bing program had final score Ravens 31 Browns 17.  Bing a MICROSOFT model....way to pick the score there . System has nothing to do with wagering percentages from the Internet. I found a trend that any team that lands on 65% to win the game I simply fade that team. My theory based off this trend is that stats wise the 65% team is slightly better but in the NFL it's literally any given Sunday...so you have a team you wager on a 35% chance to straight up win. Now if you take into account the spread the chance is even better if your getting points. The NFL 65% is considered 55% given how anything can change so fast such as a fumble interception etc...so technically it's a 45% chance but my model system does overvalue a lot of data points that I'm too lazy to change







 
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Posted: #48
What amazes me is how many people question what HE chooses to use to pick games. Ya don't like it follow another thread. 
 
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Posted: #49
spot on on the browns pick, great stuff man thank you for sharing. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
NFL Week 2

2-0 $4000

Eagles @ Bears - Bears (62% chance to win)

Pick Eagles +3 $1000

Clearly a coin flip game at 62% chance. Eagles getting +3 this play clearly a gamble...not a trend play but had the same percentage last year steelers at chargers...chargers 62% chance to win. Steelers won 24-20 let's hope we see similar results as the 62% rarely appears under the model 
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