Posted:
#1
NO ML -200
IND ML -300
HOU ML -525
Week 17. TB has to lose to secure the #1 pick. TEN has to lose for a shot at getting the #1 pick just in case TB is stupid enough to win. But they still have to lose to secure the #2 pick. JAC has to lose to stay at #3.
NO will want to end their horrible season on a high note, but the -4 is scary. This reminds me of last year when HOU needed to lose to TEN to secure the #1 pick. TEN was favored by 7 and HOU lost the game, but covered the line. HOU at home, will finish the season off strong against the Jags. A little worried about IND benching all their starters because they are locked into that 4 seed whether they win or lose. Why risk throwing Luck out there and risking an injury right before the playoffs?
Still, these ML plays are more about betting against TB, TEN, and JAC instead of betting on NO, IND and HOU. They have to lose to secure their draft positions. I can't envision any of them brainfarting just to get an extra W and potentially dropping down to 5 or 6 with the Raiders Jets and Skins right behind them.
TB and TEN are both 2-13, but because of the SOS%, TB gets the #1 pick. JAC OAK and NYJ are all 3-12 with JAC edging them out for the #3 pick. DEN has to win to secure the 2 seed for the 1st round bye so I would throw the house on DEN ML if I could. NYJ will most likely lose to MIA, but they may also try to win for Rex before he gets fired, so I'm staying off that one. Either way, TB and TEN will want to secure the top 2 picks to grab the QBs that they need and Jac will not risk getting bumped down to 4 or 5 just for an extra win, especially when the game is in Houston.
Last year I threw $5000 on TEN ML to win $1500
Of course anything can happen and nothing is 100%, but I'm liking this situation play. Are any of those coaches stupid enough to win the game at the expense of a top3 pick in next year's draft?
0
Hot Forum Topics
