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Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share

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Posted: #276
Can you post the comparison percentages?
 
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Posted: #277
Quote Originally Posted by RDTTKA12:

AFN does your system produce projected scores of games based on your stats? If so could you post them.  Also, any thoughts on Philly @ TB, Detroit @ GB, or your reasoning for SD @ Pitt
Thanks AFN, BOL this week.
                                                
sorry bud no projection scores as program just gives matchup percentages 
 
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Posted: #278
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

sorry bud no projection scores as program just gives matchup percentages 


Thats what I meant. Sorry

I want to see all of todays matchup percentages if you can post that. I read through your thread and so far your system seems legit. Some of your losses are from going against your system I noticed and I feel look at these percentages gives you a good read.
 
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Posted: #279
Quote Originally Posted by plchris:



Thats what I meant. Sorry

I want to see all of todays matchup percentages if you can post that. I read through your thread and so far your system seems legit. Some of your losses are from going against your system I noticed and I feel look at these percentages gives you a good read.
Yea I backtracked my losses and most were degenerate picks against the system cuz I just wanted to play like eagles garbage game and raiders...will try and post all percentages and maybe even the full chart but too much numbers and percentages its blowing my mind  lol 
 
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Posted: #280
could you please post your record if that 's ok :) 

 
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Posted: #281
3-0 so far 

Just need Arizona for parlay
 
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Posted: #282
SD+7
Minn+3
Carolina+3
Dallas+3


This would have made a nice early parlay
Great job
 
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Posted: #283
Correction 4-0 
 
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Posted: #284
Post the percentages!
 
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Posted: #285
AFN..... my respects to you Sr. as always... 4-0 so far ...WOW...one of the best systems i have seennn. thanks again for shariiinngggg
 
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Posted: #286
Any play for tonight's Game fren??
 
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Posted: #287



13-6 overall for low spreads 8 and under....

13-9 with those 3 double digit spread games (Pitt, arizona, raiders)

So its official no more double digit spreads as its not profitable in the long run... but 13-6  so far on 8 and under spreads not bad +700 units so far
 
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Posted: #288
I also will start posting NBA as ive come up with similar percentage program ive been testing and in a month span from Nov 9th to today December 9th which is profitable
 
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Posted: #289
 
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Posted: #291
How about to night game ? AFN NE & Texas
 
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Posted: #292

Thanks for sharing,and best to you in the future...

 
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Posted: #293
Ne -4 now. Is it still good to play NE -4?? thanks man
 
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Posted: #294
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

 

Playing all 1unit each which hopefully get a profit if at least 2 games don't play out...as far as the parlay I rarely do parlays but its the end of the season and I felt like playing a little lottery for fun cuz the regular season is coming to an end soon...what I meant by hedging is if all the Sundays games hit then I can hedge Monday and take Houston to gaurantee a payout but I know it's a longshot 

so you think Houston tonight?
 
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Posted: #295
houston or pats?
 
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Posted: #296
Curious to what you think here as well 
 
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Posted: #297
AFN,

Hell of job this weekend bud, you cleaned house!  Perhaps we could get a little MNF preview with some numbers for the HOU @ NE game tonight?
My lean is Pats -3 from my local
 
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Posted: #298
Gotta love you morons posting plays in someone else's thread, losers
 
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Posted: #299
Houston 18% NE 24% overall efficiency matchup

Houston 7% NE 18% offense

Houston -18% NE 1% defense

Houston behind in offense but a huge differential in defense numbers...

Pick Houston +5.5 and Houston ML
 
 
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Posted: #300
Firstly, AFN, I have been very impressed with this system!

However, did last night's game expose a flaw? Specifically, my question is: how exactly does the system quantify recent play vs play over the whole season? I know you've mentioned that it weights recent play heavier than historical play, but what defines "recent?" I have noticed (more from a fantasy football perspective) that HOU D/ST has been bad since Week 11, whereas NE D/ST has been looking pretty good since Week 11. Essentially, I was surprised by the defensive differential (i.e., -18% vs average) the system computed. 

Also, does it take into account when players (especially those who are directly involved in many play outcomes) are out for the game? I know your program records every play, but does it record the players involved affecting the outcomes? Quantifying injury-induced effects on expected performance would be BAWSE!

Thanks again for your work! Have a good one. 
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