JAN 26

2024-2025

Regular season:  114-96   +1949

Playoffs:  6-9  -308

WAS +6 -105

It is so hard to back a rookie QB in this spot.  But Jayden Daniels is not a ‘normal’ rookie QB.

He has shown tremendous poise and never gives up.  He has also made great strides this year in reading defenses.

PHL had the best PASS DEF and PASS RUSH combo this year.  They also improved their RUN DEF from 19th in the first 10 games.  Their RUN DEF has been the best in the league since week 10.

In part because of Daniels’ ability to run, the WAS RUN unit has actually been more highly rated by efficiency numbers than the PHL RUN unit.  This is despite Barkley and Hurts’ opportunistic running.

The problem for PHL has been their inconsistency with their PASS unit.  So, they have been very overly reliant on their RUNNING unit and Barkley and their defense.

But still they have made it work very well.  The problem for WAS is that they actually have a negatively rated RUN DEF.  So, it will be very hard for them to stop Barkley.  They will have to be able to contain Barkley and Hurts at key junctures in the game.

WAS may have to try to turn this game into a shootout to win, and they have no problem with a game like that.

PHL will try to run the ball and grind it out and win from in front.  They will try to stop Daniels from taking off and turning a losing play into a winning play.  PHL is very good at doing this.

But if WAS can turn it into a game where Hurts has to step up, they may have a chance.  Because Hurts has not been overwhelming this year.  If WAS were to get a lead and ‘force’ PHL to throw, they would have a chance.  But if they allow Barkley to put Hurts in 2nd and 3rd and very short, they will be in for a long day.

This might also come down to one team being ‘tight’ from the expectations and one being ‘loose’ because of exceeding their expectations.

KC -1.5 -112

KC is 15-2 in the playoffs, with all of the wins coming by more than 2 points.

They have played a lot of close games during the regular season, so they have not looked overwhelming.  But they are simply different in the playoffs.

I thought the best chance to catch them flat was last week after, basically, two weeks off.

It is simply too hard to go against Mahomes in the playoffs.  He has only lost to Brady twice and Burrow once.

As I have said, a good case can be made for him as MVP this year.  He has had a terrible running game all year.  Everyone knew he had to rely on his defense to slow the other team down.  Then he had to beat them with his passing game—and he did it.

Big-time players step up in key moments, and Mahomes epitomizes this.

I feel like Reid is not given enough credit for prepping for specific teams.  I think he will have the team ready with a scheme to slow down Allen and keep him off the field.

The run will end soon for KC, and this may be the year that BUF does it.

KC has the 2nd highest ‘true homefield’ advantage at 3.8, a good deal higher than the average of ~2.5.  This cannot be dismissed, especially this time of year.  No team over the last 10 years has a better home/away defensive number.  KC is -7.4; the league average is -3.9.  The point is that Arrowhead is a tough place to play for visitors.  This is only amplified in the playoffs.

The best DEF unit for BUF is their RUN DEF.  But the worst OFF unit for KC is their RUSHING.

The worst DEF unit for BUF is their PASS DEF.  Their PASS RUSH is good.  The KC best OFF unit is their PASSING.

So, again, teams know that KC will, most likely, have to throw to beat them—yet, KC still does.

It will be very interesting to see how the scheming of Brady matches up with the KC defense.

There is tremendous extra motivation for both teams.  KC, wanting to three-peat, and Buffalo and Allen trying to meet the expectations of a team that has been peaking the last few years.

I do not buy into the revenge factor from the game earlier this year or that Allen has a winning record against Mahomes.  Allen simply has not beaten Mahomes in January.

I think this is Buffalo’s peak.  I think Kansas City has already peaked.  Teams simply do not stay at their peak or at an elite level long enough to not take advantage of opportunities.  New England is the only recent example of a team staying at an extended peak.

Buffalo will have to take advantage of being at their peak by playing a clean game to overcome an experienced QB/coach combo and a defense that got better all season.

I do not think they will be able to pull it off.

I will also add that Mahomes is simply the playoff ‘clutch’ guy on late drives.  So, if the Bills have a one-score lead, they better try to add to it.  Or be prepared to have their defense tested.

For example:

The Chiefs have had 21 potential game-tying or go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter or overtime in the playoffs with Mahomes. They've successfully tied or gone ahead on 15 of those drives. That's good for a preposterous conversion rate of 71%, which is the best by any QB since the turn of the century—way ahead of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, who are tied for second at 53%. 

And:

Mahomes is 7-for-7 converting playoff drives with under a minute left in regulation and trailing by seven or fewer points. He is the only perfect player in those situations since 2001. Meanwhile, Tom Brady is 5-for-11 (46%), and the league average is 40% in that span.

Both games are right around the key number of 47.  Weather should not be a factor in either game with wind or rain—just cold.

Playoff games often turn out differently than expected.  The ‘underwhelming’ units often step up.

WAS O47 -111

I think it is worth paying to keep it at the key number.

I think the WAS/PHL game could turn into a shootout by WAS forcing it that way by either having the lead and forcing PHL to throw or returning a PHL score to keep the game close and forcing PHL to have to go to the air to keep the lead.

KC U48 +101

The KC/BUF game should be more defensive than many might expect.

The BUF defense played very well last week against a very good OFF.  Henry could not get going, and they kept Jackson frustrated enough.

KC also did a good job throttling Stroud and keeping pressure on him while containing him.

Both have elite QBs, and a high-scoring affair might be seen by many.  But I think both defenses keep playing better in the playoffs.

Ekeler U25.5 rec yds -116

Hurts U193.5 pass yds -114

Hurts O30.5 rush yds -113

Kincaid O32.5 rec yds -114

Hopefully, it will be two very good and exciting games.

@Raiders22

 dude I am opposite 3 of those, no opinion on the total of Bills

one of us may have a good day tomorrow, but most likely we just lose some juice

GL capper 

@soup-can

 It could very likely be you that has the good day.  The playoffs have not been my friend.

Good luck to you! 

@rosswin97

No sir.  I did not say they did or would.  Sorry, if that was confusing. But they handle QBs that can extend plays by moving off of the pressure or taking off better than other defenses, without directly putting a spy on them.

But Daniels still can be a handful.  So, without a spy he may get some runs.  But PHL should do a decent job of stopping him from running around and finding a guy deep downfield like he does.  But if they decide to, it would be Baun and he is good at it.

Per Circa the President Mr. Trump bet the Bills to win the SB 

insider trading 

Trump AFC Championship Pick is on Bills

@Raiders22

Enjoyed your writeups!!! BOL 

GL 22 

I like the current odds even better, so doubled up.

2U WAS +6 -102

2U WAS O47 -102

2U KC -1.5 -107

2U KC U49.5 -107

@Raiders22