JETS @ MIAMI: We nailed Vegas with Memphis and now we'll get 'em again with this one!

2016 Record: 26-11 (>70%)

The pick:

Miami -4 OVER JETS

Will provide all commentary later. I'm in a time crunch tonight. I see the line trending up so I just wanted to grab the 4 when I could.

Questions.

Here's one way to win at gambling: Ask Questions.

Then wait for the answer. When you get the answer, apply it to your next pick. These teams will answer with their performance. Vegas will answer with it's line-setting.

I asked the questions this week and I didn't even have to bet on them:

Where did this Wyoming -6 line over Utah State (which eventually got to -4 as it dropped during the week) come from?

Where did Navy +7 over ND come from?

As you can see with Memphis -3 and the fact that Wyoming is almost going to drop SIXTY on Utah State, it is clear these big books cannot focus on these smaller conferences and put out sharp lines. ND is a very public team too and that line was way off as well.

Some of these lines are the proverbial "Bizarro Lines". Wyoming was that. Navy was that (ND never had a real shot to cover that). And Memphis was that.

Since we now have the answers to the questions, that books put out bizarre lines, and we can use the answer they exist to pick a Jets Miami side.

And I see no good reason why Miami shouldn't be -7 at a minimum or greater. It is a proverbial "Bizarro Line".

Why do we need that answer? Because we as gamblers are natural skeptics. We question OURSELVES too much and talk ourselves out of a pick when the answer is right in front of us.

Onto this Miami -4 pick.

Why take Miami?

The injuries

Here come the Jets just like the Ravens a few weeks ago as the walking wounded.

Here is the list of Jets injuries: Carter LB (Out); Clady OL (Quest.); Kellen Davis TD (Out); Giocomini OL (Quest); Darron Lee LB (Out); Mangold C (Doubtful); Qvale OL (Doubtful); Shell OL (Quest); Skrine CB (Limited Practice); Wilkerson DL (Doubt/Quest).

Folks that's FAR too many injuries at too many key positions for a 3-5 team to endure in back to back road games against a conference rival.

Mangold ALONE is a big injury at Center. And let's remember, Fitzpatrick had his head drilled early last week and wasn't all that sharp the rest of the game, at least in terms of optimal expected performance.

Miami will be missing Cameron, Howard. Sims will almost certainly be back. Not chopped liver right there but nothing like the bevy of injuries suffered by the Jets.

So right off the bat, the Jets have the "Walking Wounded" moniker.

Advantage: Dolphins

Tannehill vs. Fitz

I know you guys dislike Tannehill but right now is Fitz, a guy who lost his starting job to Geno Smith, a better QB to back with  meager 4 pts? His magic in the Ravens game WILL dissipate at some point and he's not all that sharp anyhow. That FIRST game is key and it's all downhill from there as the old Fitz slowly comes to light. Do people think he won't thrown an INT the rest of the season?

Tannehill's performance has been on the uptick the past two games: 15/25 204 1 TD 0 INT vs. Bills and 24/32 252 vs. Steelers.

Pretty damn good...for him.

And here's a bonus, a VERY big bonus:

The Jets have the WORST pass defense in the NFL allowing 289.1 passing yards per game. Opponents have thrown 15 TD's in 8 games against them. Opponents have a 98.6 QBR against the Jets, 27th in the NFL. Opposing QB's are completing 66% of their passes for 23rd in the league.

Is that bad enough? Well it gets worse.

The Jets give up the explosive play with regularity (you know, the one that will get you the cover or get you out to a quick lead). They have allowed 27 pass plays of 20 yards or more. And they are getting worse. Seattle and Cleveland last week both had SIX plays of 20+ passing yards. Cleveland....Cleveland had that...Passes of 71, 72 and 84 yards this year folks. Scary...IF you are a Jets backer.

Here's what the Jets will do: They will load up the box and use their number 4th Best Rush D to stop/contain the run and dare Tannehill to beat them.

But when you have the worst pass defense, only 4 points of spread, playing on the road in the second straight week, playing on the road 4 of 5 weeks, basically signaling to Tannehill they will do this (calling him out essentially), it's not a good thing to bet on in the Jets.

We all know of Tannehill's struggles. This game will basically be a statement of Tannehill's career from now until hereafter. If he can't do well against this pass defense, he's essentially done. He knows that. That's a good thing because we will get maximum effort. For my money, I'll take Tannehill in that spot.

And if Tannehill fails?

Revelation at Running Back

Jay Ajay is going for his third consecutive game of 200+ yards. Will he get it? It is likely he won't. But what will he get? 100? 120? 130? Those numbers are paltry compared to what he's gotten the past 2 games and they are still outstanding totals.

The Steelers have an very good Run Defense (8th on that week they played the Fins) and couldn't stop him. The Bills have a poor one and he torched them too.

The Jets have the 4th best but do we even need 200+ yards to cover this number? No! We don't even know what this kid is yet. His wild card of a performance threatens the Jets Number 4 Run D and they have the worst pass D. That's a bad spot for the Jets.

Miami stinks at defending the run 27th but will you take Forte or Ajay in this spot? Come on now, you know the answer!

Advantage: Dolphins at QB and RB and Pass D.

Next up:

Are the Jets on the upswing?

I say no. Who have they beat?

@Steelers 31-13 Loss (Lifeless performance)

@Cardinals 28-3 Loss (an even more lifeless performance)

Vs. Ravens 24-16 Win (Beat the most injured team in the NFL and needed heroics from Fitz to do it)

@ Browns 31-28 (Beat the worst team in football about to match it's worst start ever at 0-9 and still came an onside kick from disaster).

Now the Jets are playing their whopping FOURTH road game in five weeks, with more injuries, while playing inadequate competition in the past two weeks, perhaps in their own right,  two of the worst teams in the NFL given the injuries and records.

Oh and throw in some blazing 82 degree heat against the Fins tomorrow.

Advantage: Dolphins

Are the Fins on the upswing?

I don't care if you think this is selective thinking because I am picking them: I say yes. They DOMINATED the Steelers at home 30-15 and after Rex threw EVERYTHING he had at them early (which he had to do without McCoy) the Fins bore down and prevailed (and covered the -2.5) 28-25.

On top of that, the locker room is clicking. We now have that psychological edge that I love, per reports (and if you don't believe those reports, believe their impressive performances the last two games to validate that the locker room is clicking):

Understand that the Dolphins’ practices during training camp were open to the media. Indeed, they were open to the public. And everyone saw that they sometimes dragged. Sometimes they were ragged.

Coaches and players who had been on successful teams elsewhere grudgingly admit there was something not quite right about those July-August-September sessions. Things just didn’t look or feel precise.

That isn’t the case anymore.

Although all significant parts of practices are closed to all outsiders now, I’m told the workouts lately hum like a V8 engine.

They go faster. There are fewer mistakes. There’s a competitive spirit present.

“You can feel the guys just love to be here, having fun at practice, joking around, clowning around,” receiver Jarvis Landry said. “But at the same time, we want this taste to stay in our mouths. We want to continue to have success and build off of what we’ve done so far.”

The Dolphins believe they have hit a cycle that is something of a sweet spot for NFL teams. They have found success in games so players are working harder in practice to keep that success going. And that leads to more success — which makes practices more fun and more productive …

Which often leads to more success in games.

“All of a sudden, you do get a little bit of confidence, some success … and then your practices get better and your meetings get better and everyone is buying in a little bit more, and you keep improving by inches,” offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen said.

Folks, this is what always plagues the Fins, the lack of cohesion. Now even the worst of the worst is buying in.

Ndamukong Suh has become a major force for good in the locker room.

That wasn’t the case last season. Suh held meetings and tried to show leadership last year but it didn’t translate well. It was obvious Suh didn’t buy in to Joe Philbin as a head coach and Kevin Coyle as a defensive coordinator.

Suh also alienated some teammates. Indeed, very few people in the building liked him.

But there has been an almost 180-degree shift by the team’s highest-paid player this year. Suh and Gase have built something of a relationship. Suh has been trusting the coaching and, indeed, encouraging players to do the same.

Folks, when Suh is buying in, YOU should buy in. Is the line the -3 from earlier in the week? No. But I feel I justified the extra point to -4 here. I don't think I need to go on. Do you?

All we have that favors the Jets is their Run D over the Fins Run D. That's all I see. You're gonna need a hell of a lot more than 4 points if that is my only advantage.

Oh, by the way, this is the THIRD straight home game for the Dolphins, vs. 4 of 5 on the road for the Jets.

 Dolphins -4.

To the guys above, always a pleasure.

LMB, sorry, I didn't spend a second capping the Browns game. But the fact they can match their worst start ever is a motivator, I will say that.

I also wanted to add this one minor point:

We should all be VERY grateful Geno Smith isn't healthy because if he were behind center, this game may be unbettable.

Geno is from Miami and had his best game as a pro BY FAR against Miami in Week 17 of 2014. He was basically perfect in terms of QBR.

And he would bring 75%/80% of that here MINIMUM IF he were healthy. So we HAVE to take advantage of Fitz behind center regardless of who you think is better!