Johnson's NFL Week 15

OVERALL RECORD:  48-34   (+1010)   *41-32 posted
SPREAD:  28-22
TOTALS:  20-12

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3-2 in Week 14  (1-1 posted for those who care.  Won on the Colts, lost on the Panthers but got the scores pretty much exactly right in both...got screwed on the Eagles who should have won that game as well)  

Week 15 Line Projections:

LA Chargers  @  Kansas City  (-3.5)    56

Houston  (-7)  vs  NY Jets    42
Cleveland  vs  Denver  (-3)    44.5

Arizona  vs  Atlanta  (-8)    44
Detroit  vs  Buffalo  (-2.5)    40
Green Bay  vs  Chicago  (-2.5)    47.5
Oakland  vs  Cincinnati  (-1)    43
Dallas  vs  Indianapolis  (-2.5)    48.5
Miami  vs  Minnesota  (-3)    45
Tennessee  (-1.5)  vs  NY Giants    44
Washington  vs  Jacksonville  (-3)    42.5
Tampa Bay  vs  Baltimore  (-3)  48
Seattle  (-7.5)  vs  San Francisco  47
New England  (-2)  vs  Pittsburgh    51
Philadelphia  vs  LA Rams  (-3.5)    55

New Orleans  (-4)  vs  Carolina    56.5

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from but they are very high. 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

I guess I should have phrased that better. They are much different than the actual Vegas line odds.

Week 15 QB Rankings:

1.  Tom Brady
2.  Drew Brees
3.  Andrew Luck
4.  Aaron Rodgers
5.  Patrick Mahomes
6.  Phillip Rivers
7.  Russell Wilson
8.  Ben Roethlisberger
9.  Jared Goff
10.  Cam Newton
11.  Deshaun Watson
12.  Matt Ryan
13.  Carson Wentz
14.  Mitchell Trubisky
15.  Marcus Mariota
16.  Kirk Cousins
17.  Dak Prescott
18.  Baker Mayfield
19.  Matthew Stafford
20.  Case Keenum
21.  Ryan Tannehill
22.  Derek Carr
23. Jameis Winston
24.  Sam Darnold
25.  Eli Manning
26.  Andy Dalton
27.  Lamar Jackson
28.  CJ Beathard
29.  Josh Rosen
30.  Josh Rosen
31.  Cody Kessler
32.  Josh Johnson/Mark Sanchez

You new here? He gives his projected lines without looking at the opening lines..

I think it's called handicapping? 

I could be wrong though....

My own projections of where I would set the lines.  Haven't seen a single line up until now.

Week 15 Line Mis-Matches:

TB @ BALT
Projected:  BALT -3
Actual:  BALT -8

Wow.  I know the Ravens defense is good and the Bucs defense is bad but I didn't think it would be this much off.  I think the Bucs can keep this within a touchdown on initial look.  Will be interested to see where this line goes throughout the week though.  

TENN @ NYG
Projected:  TENN -1.5
Actual:  NYG  -2.5

I don't see any way in hell the Giants deserve to be favored in this game.  The Titans are the better team on paper, they have a solid defense, they've been pretty hot as have the Giants, but the Giants have taken advantage of terrible opponent situations in past couple weeks.  This one confuses me.

MIA @ MINN
Projected:  MINN -3
Actual:  MINN -7

This line tells me that everyone is down on the Vikings and everyone is up on the Dolphins.  It might be a crappy line, but if it jumps to 6.5 the only possible play is on the Vikings.  Let down spot for the Dolphins and this is a spot where Cousins shines...when everyone expects him to do nothing, and the lights aren't on him

GB @ CHI
Projected:  CHI -2.5
Actual:  CHI -5.5

I can't be the only one that thinks Rodgers is gonna go on a tear here at the end of the year, just barely miss the playoffs and blame all his struggles on McCarthy right?  Bears historically struggle against the Packers...and 5.5 might be a bit too high for my liking.

WASH @ JAX
Projected:  JAX -3  O/U 42.5
Actual:  JAX -7  O/U  36.5

This game is going to be junk and there is no way in hell I would ever put money on it.  The end.

PHI @ LAR
Projected:  LAR -3.5
Actual:  LAR -9

Damn...I thought the linesmakers would be a lot more down on the Rams after the tough loss against the Bears.  Eagles are fighting for their lives right now...I can see this one being closer than some might think.

Very well sir and best of luck to you! 

cdubs, you are correct, I do not frequent the NFL Forum often, as my forte is in the College Football Forum. 

Not sure why you would think the Baltimore/Tampa game would only be 3? When I look at some stats on this game, defense alone should have Baltimore by at least 7 points and they are pretty good at home.

GL

All solid points...leaning towards the over in tomorrow's game right now...thinking 35-23 Chiefs

Chiefs -3.5. $110 to win $100

At work so im a little late posting but I know you all get butt hurt if I don't post... maybe a 2h play as well. 

2h over 27. $110 to win $100

It'll pick up... both teams moving ball

Broncos pk 2h ($110 to win $100)

They will find a way to win. 

Green Bay Packers +5.5  ($110 to win $100)

Two much different teams than when they played to open the season...and with much different expectations.  Rodgers owns the Bears, and this is a letdown spot in a weird way for the Bears.  Last week's game against the Rams was huge, and even though this is a divisional game, it doesn't have as much effect on the playoff seedings.  Packers have a good chance to win this game, and at the very least keep it close.

Prediction:  Packers 24  Bears 23

Tampa Bay vs Baltimore OVER 45  ($110 to win $100)

Lamar Jackson has given the Ravens offense some life, and they need to keep winning in order to keep pace with the Steelers who have a very lose-able game against the Patriots.  Bucs defense has been terrible all year, and although their offense  is up and down, this is a reasonable number.

Prediction:  Ravens 31 Bucs 21

New England Patriots -2  ($110 to win $100)

They own the Steelers.  I feel like this is the exact same story from the Patriots that we've seen the past dozen years.  Struggle out of the gates, win 7 or 8 in a row, lose to Miami in December, beat the Steelers, get a first round bye and focus on the AFC Championship game.

Prediction:  Patriots 30  Steelers 21

An ugly week was bound to happen somewhere.