Tennessee @ Cleveland (-5) 45.5 Baltimore (-6) @ Miami 40 Atlanta @ Minnesota (-1.5) 47 Buffalo @ NY Jets (-3.5) 42 Washington @ Philadelphia (-8) 45.5 LA Rams (-4) @ Carolina 47.5 Kansas City (-5.5) @ Jacksonville 45.5 Indianapolis @ LA Chargers (-4) 44.5 Cincinatti @ Seattle (-6.5) 41.5 NY Giants @ Dallas (-6) 43 Detroit (-1.5) @ Arizona 40.5 San Francisco @ Tampa Bay (-1.5) 47 Pittsburgh @ New England (-3.5) 46.5
Tennessee @ Cleveland (-5) 45.5 Baltimore (-6) @ Miami 40 Atlanta @ Minnesota (-1.5) 47 Buffalo @ NY Jets (-3.5) 42 Washington @ Philadelphia (-8) 45.5 LA Rams (-4) @ Carolina 47.5 Kansas City (-5.5) @ Jacksonville 45.5 Indianapolis @ LA Chargers (-4) 44.5 Cincinatti @ Seattle (-6.5) 41.5 NY Giants @ Dallas (-6) 43 Detroit (-1.5) @ Arizona 40.5 San Francisco @ Tampa Bay (-1.5) 47 Pittsburgh @ New England (-3.5) 46.5
Wanted to go higher on this one but I'm sure it'll be hotter than hell in Jacksonville this weekend, the Chiefs have some different parts to their offense without Kareem Hunt and at wide receiver. Patrick Mahomes has a ton of pressure on him to continue his huge success from last year. Kansas City spent a lot of money upgrading their defense with Frank Clark, Tyrann Mathieu, and Mo Claiborne. I think the Jaguars offense has no choice but to be better without Blake Bortles...but it's hard to see a shootout with these two teams in Week 1 with all the defensive talent out there.
CIN @ SEA Projected: SEA -6.5 Actual: SEA -9.5
Hate this line. Can see a backdoor cover screaming out of this one. I like the Seahawks to be a contender for the final playoff spots...and I like the Bengals to be contenders for the #1 pick. Good spot for a half bet...Seahawks at home are a beast. Still a tough line though.
DET @ ARIZ Projected O/U: 40.5 Actual O/U: 46.5
And this one has been bet down throughout the weeks? Kyler Murray will have a serious learning curve in the NFL. Kliff Kingsbury will have a serious learning curve in the NFL. Matt Patricia is STILL having a serious learning curve in the NFL. I know the Cardinals want to play up pace and move the ball...but the talent level has to be there first. This one seems crazy to me.
HOU @ NO Projected: NO -3 Actual: NO -7
Houston is a sleeper team once again in the AFC. The Saints are a popular pick to fall off the face of the Earth. Drew Brees looked really tired at the end of last year, and as much as they want to whine about the pass interference non-call, they still had every opportunity to win that game. Should be a great battle for the first Monday night game of the year, and I'm not sure the Saints can take it down by more than a touchdown. Will be keeping my eyes on this one for sure.
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Week 1 Line Mis-Matches:
KC @ JAX Projected O/U: 45.5 Actual O/U: 52
Wanted to go higher on this one but I'm sure it'll be hotter than hell in Jacksonville this weekend, the Chiefs have some different parts to their offense without Kareem Hunt and at wide receiver. Patrick Mahomes has a ton of pressure on him to continue his huge success from last year. Kansas City spent a lot of money upgrading their defense with Frank Clark, Tyrann Mathieu, and Mo Claiborne. I think the Jaguars offense has no choice but to be better without Blake Bortles...but it's hard to see a shootout with these two teams in Week 1 with all the defensive talent out there.
CIN @ SEA Projected: SEA -6.5 Actual: SEA -9.5
Hate this line. Can see a backdoor cover screaming out of this one. I like the Seahawks to be a contender for the final playoff spots...and I like the Bengals to be contenders for the #1 pick. Good spot for a half bet...Seahawks at home are a beast. Still a tough line though.
DET @ ARIZ Projected O/U: 40.5 Actual O/U: 46.5
And this one has been bet down throughout the weeks? Kyler Murray will have a serious learning curve in the NFL. Kliff Kingsbury will have a serious learning curve in the NFL. Matt Patricia is STILL having a serious learning curve in the NFL. I know the Cardinals want to play up pace and move the ball...but the talent level has to be there first. This one seems crazy to me.
HOU @ NO Projected: NO -3 Actual: NO -7
Houston is a sleeper team once again in the AFC. The Saints are a popular pick to fall off the face of the Earth. Drew Brees looked really tired at the end of last year, and as much as they want to whine about the pass interference non-call, they still had every opportunity to win that game. Should be a great battle for the first Monday night game of the year, and I'm not sure the Saints can take it down by more than a touchdown. Will be keeping my eyes on this one for sure.
Green Bay 24 Chicago 23 LA Rams 30 Carolina 21 Philadelphia 33 Washington 17 NY Jets 20 Buffalo 13 Atlanta 27 Minnesota 24 Baltimore 24 Miami 14 Kansas City 28 Jacksonville 20 Cleveland 21 Tennessee 17 Seattle 31 Cincinnati 13 LA Chargers 35 Indianapolis 21 San Francisco 30 Tampa Bay 27 Dallas 21 NY Giants 14 Detroit 23 Arizona 17 New England 28 Pittsburgh 21 New Orleans 31 Houston 27 Denver 23 Oakland 20
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Week 1 Score Predictions:
Green Bay 24 Chicago 23 LA Rams 30 Carolina 21 Philadelphia 33 Washington 17 NY Jets 20 Buffalo 13 Atlanta 27 Minnesota 24 Baltimore 24 Miami 14 Kansas City 28 Jacksonville 20 Cleveland 21 Tennessee 17 Seattle 31 Cincinnati 13 LA Chargers 35 Indianapolis 21 San Francisco 30 Tampa Bay 27 Dallas 21 NY Giants 14 Detroit 23 Arizona 17 New England 28 Pittsburgh 21 New Orleans 31 Houston 27 Denver 23 Oakland 20
For those of you who may not remember or want to bash the process...I do this every week. I don't look at the lines beforehand. I try and predict where they will be set. It's obviously a lot harder in Week 1 as the lines have been out for quite some time. I only saw a few before today...most were honest predictions. I rank each and every starting QB for that week as I have felt for the past 4 years now it's the single most important factor in betting. I'm strongly considering taking Green Bay simply because it's Aaron Rodgers against Mitchell Trubisky. The rankings are based off numerous factors...career success and accomplishments, recent success or failures, situational skill, etc.. I'm not saying that I think Jared Goff is better than Ben Roethlisberger or Russell Wilson, I'm saying that heading into their week 1 games, that's how I would rank them. I appreciate and welcome all feedback, thoughts, arguments, disagreements, whatever you got!! We get better each year by acquiring more knowledge!! I've hit about 60% year in and year out doing this as many old-timers will attest to. It's my system, and it works for me!!
Best of luck to everyone...and welcome back NFL!!
(Go Patriots)
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Good to be back of course!!
For those of you who may not remember or want to bash the process...I do this every week. I don't look at the lines beforehand. I try and predict where they will be set. It's obviously a lot harder in Week 1 as the lines have been out for quite some time. I only saw a few before today...most were honest predictions. I rank each and every starting QB for that week as I have felt for the past 4 years now it's the single most important factor in betting. I'm strongly considering taking Green Bay simply because it's Aaron Rodgers against Mitchell Trubisky. The rankings are based off numerous factors...career success and accomplishments, recent success or failures, situational skill, etc.. I'm not saying that I think Jared Goff is better than Ben Roethlisberger or Russell Wilson, I'm saying that heading into their week 1 games, that's how I would rank them. I appreciate and welcome all feedback, thoughts, arguments, disagreements, whatever you got!! We get better each year by acquiring more knowledge!! I've hit about 60% year in and year out doing this as many old-timers will attest to. It's my system, and it works for me!!
I do like AZ this week. The Passing Power Index I use rates Kyler Murray's college stats as better than Baker Mayfield's, and JWD1984 stated that first-time NFL starters as Home Dogs or Pick 'Ems are 12-4 ATS in Week 1.
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Good luck this season.
I do like AZ this week. The Passing Power Index I use rates Kyler Murray's college stats as better than Baker Mayfield's, and JWD1984 stated that first-time NFL starters as Home Dogs or Pick 'Ems are 12-4 ATS in Week 1.
Had this one initially as more than a field goal line for the Rams, even on the road. I'm very aware of the Super Bowl loser Week 1 cover trend, but the Rams are just far and away the better team, and took every opportunity to improve in the offseason. Jared Goff is ready to take his spot as a top 5 quarterback in this league under this offense. The offense is finally healthy which is a huge point as well. I think Carolina hangs in there all game, but the Rams are just too solid on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: Rams 28 Carolina 23
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LA Rams -1.5 ($110 to win $100)
Had this one initially as more than a field goal line for the Rams, even on the road. I'm very aware of the Super Bowl loser Week 1 cover trend, but the Rams are just far and away the better team, and took every opportunity to improve in the offseason. Jared Goff is ready to take his spot as a top 5 quarterback in this league under this offense. The offense is finally healthy which is a huge point as well. I think Carolina hangs in there all game, but the Rams are just too solid on both sides of the ball.
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 1st Half ($220 to win $200)
Might be the best bet of the week. Eagles like to start quick and show off...the Redskins are in a complete rebuild status and I don't think they can match the intensity on the road. Eagles will have at least a touchdown lead at the half on this one.
Prediction: Eagles 17 Redskins 3
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Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 1st Half ($220 to win $200)
Might be the best bet of the week. Eagles like to start quick and show off...the Redskins are in a complete rebuild status and I don't think they can match the intensity on the road. Eagles will have at least a touchdown lead at the half on this one.
Another solid option. The Titans are a balanced solid team with good coaching with Mike Vrabel. The Browns are an unstable franchise/team with large characters everywhere and a completely unproved coach. I will take the road team here with the possibility to pull an upset.
Prediction: Cleveland 20 Tennessee 17
1
Tennessee Titans +5.5 ($110 to win $100)
Another solid option. The Titans are a balanced solid team with good coaching with Mike Vrabel. The Browns are an unstable franchise/team with large characters everywhere and a completely unproved coach. I will take the road team here with the possibility to pull an upset.
Random ass college picks of the week that I have no idea on:
Rutgers +19 Army @ Michigan OVER 48 Syracuse @ Maryland OVER 57.5 Ohio State -15.5 South Florida +6.5 Richmond +33.5 Florida State -22 Kentucky -15 Nevada @ Oregon OVER 61.5 USC -3
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Random ass college picks of the week that I have no idea on:
Rutgers +19 Army @ Michigan OVER 48 Syracuse @ Maryland OVER 57.5 Ohio State -15.5 South Florida +6.5 Richmond +33.5 Florida State -22 Kentucky -15 Nevada @ Oregon OVER 61.5 USC -3
Basically I'm gonna try and pick 10 college plays every week, post them in here because I'm too lazy to start another thread in the college picks, and see what happens. I've been about 50% in college picks throughout my career and hate betting them, but I always feel good about them
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Basically I'm gonna try and pick 10 college plays every week, post them in here because I'm too lazy to start another thread in the college picks, and see what happens. I've been about 50% in college picks throughout my career and hate betting them, but I always feel good about them
CMJohson1...I wish God would put you in charge of the final scores down here on earth.
I am now loving many of your teams this week...but am focusing now on Philly, KC (abandoned the Jags), and New England...I pick my football teams like I choose my women...sure things.
I like the Rams this week too, but after that box performance in the superbowl, even though I was on the right side, I simply don't trust them...boy genius...I am wondering about that one.
All the best this year...
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CMJohson1...I wish God would put you in charge of the final scores down here on earth.
I am now loving many of your teams this week...but am focusing now on Philly, KC (abandoned the Jags), and New England...I pick my football teams like I choose my women...sure things.
I like the Rams this week too, but after that box performance in the superbowl, even though I was on the right side, I simply don't trust them...boy genius...I am wondering about that one.
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