Johnson's NFL Week 8

OVERALL RECORD:  12-17 ($-1000)

Seattle Seahawks -3.5  ($220 to win $200)

Jumping in early and big on this one.  Fading the Falcons no matter who is at QB...already trading away Sanu...they've given up on the year.  Home crowd won't have an effect on this one, and like I said up above, the Seahawks have to bounce back in a big way if they want to keep up in the NFC West.

Prediction:  Seahawks 31  Falcons 17

Like the Seahawks but 3.5 makes me cringe. Good luck 

Please explain your QB rankings and how you have Trubisky in the top 25?

30. That is Devlin 'The Duck' Hodges to you mister...but Mason 'Look Out, Duck' Rudolph will be the starter this week. 

Pitts' D is getting better and better every week...currently ranked #15 versus Miami's #30. 

GL CMJohnson

BOL, game was off the board from the 21st till today, any idea why? Bookies reopened the line at -6.5 now.

QB rankings are on a week to week basis and how I would rank each one with their matchup this week...they are based on historical performance/legacy and also season/recent performance.  Heading into this week's game against the Chargers...I would take Trubisky over the guys below him.  Murray/Allen/Allen/Minshew might be better but they don't have enough games under their belt for me.  There is a HUGE gap between the top 8-10 and the rest of the league right now though.  Usually it's the top 6-8, then 9-22 or so are pretty even, followed by the bottom feeders.  With Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson on a bye week and obviously ranked higher than Trubisky this week is super thin at the QB level.

"WASH @ MINN
Projected: MINN -9.5
Actual:  MINN -15.5

Really tough one here.  Vikings have looked great the past couple weeks, Kirk Cousins is on fire, Diggs and Thielen have looked great, Dalvin Cook is a beast.  But Cousins sucks in primetime, Thielen is probably out, and this seems like an ugly "get the win and get out" type of game.  24-14ish?"

Great fckin call CJ!

NCAAF PICKS:

Iowa -9.5  

Only losses are by 7 and 5 to Michigan and Penn State...NW is getting blown out by solid teams...31-13 Iowa

Appalachian St.  -27

They are rolling everyone in their path..similar to UCF in the past.  So. Alabama has no chance...52-17 App St.

Texas -1

Almost got caught in a letdown game last week.  TCU has no business winning this game.  Texas is a top #10 talent team....44-21 Texas

Auburn +10.5

Joe Burrow is due for a slight letdown game...Auburn defense is for real...Coach O has to sweat this one out...30-24 LSU

Minnesota -15

Maryland is trash...Minnesota trying to wow people in Big Ten and get into same breath as OSU/PSU...48-17 Minn

Penn State -5.5

Michigan State just can't freakin score at this point.  Penn State wins this one relatively easily...28-17 PSU

UConn vs UMass UNDER 62

Even the worst defense in the world isn't enough to boost this UConn offense...28-24 UConn

Tennessee +4.5

Over-rated South Carolina...Vols win this game and keep their coach for at least another week...31-24 UT

Texas Tech vs Kansas OVER 64.5

Two terrible defenses in the Big 12...Kansas all jazzed up after almost beating Texas...shootout...48-41 Tech

Notre Dame -1

Everything I've seen in big games from Michigan in the Harbaugh era has been poop...31-24 Irish

Arizona State -3

Same as up above with UCLA and Chip Kelley...poop...33-20 ASU

Boston College +34.5

BC is one of those sneaky-competitive teams and Clemson struggles for stretches of games...31-17 Clemson

New England Patriots -11.5  ($220 to win $200)

This game is without a doubt the biggest coaching dis-advantage of the season.  The "short" week for the Patriots (a 45 minute flight from New York) and the extra week for the Browns won't mean as much as Freddie Kitchens has no idea how to coach/make adjustments/take advantage of a team's weakness.  That has been proven in the first 6 games for the Browns.

Baker Mayfield is the most inaccurate QB this season, having 11 interceptions.  The Patriots are the best in the NFL and the best in NFL history up until this point at taking the ball away from opposing QB's.  Baker's INT % has doubled and his TD % has been cut in half.  His offensive line has gotten noticeably worse as well...as he's already been sacked 16 times this year as opposed to only 25 total last year.

The way I see it is that the Patriots will put Stephon Gilmore on Jarvis Landry...neutralizing him for the most part as Gilmore is one of the top ranked CB's according to Pro Football Focus and allows one of the lowest completion % in the league.  They will put the McCourty brothers on OBJ or at least double team his as much as possible so that he isn't allowed to have the monster gains he usually has.  Rush 6 guys against the already mentioned weak offensive line..have 2 "spies" keeping an eye on Mayfield/Chubb.

The New England Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS at home in the past 5 years...with an average margin of victory of over 14 points.

The Cleveland Browns are 20-22-1 ATS on the road in that same time frame...with an average margin of -7.8 points

I get the fact that the Browns are the "darling" team of the NFL and everyone wants to root for the underdog in this situation.  But when you really just put the facts down on paper...this should be a 17-21 point win for the Patriots.  If you just blind bet them every single week ATS you will hit 65%...that ain't bad.

Prediction:  Patriots 31  Browns 14

Houston Texans -7  ($110 to win $100)

This one is about 85% fade of the Raiders and 15% I really like the Texans to stomp them at home.  Raiders started off the year with a nice Monday night win against the Broncos...a team that we weren't really sure what they were going to give us.  Then they proceed to get shlt-stomped by the KC Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings, the Chiefs at home and the Vikings on the road.  Not a huge surprise there, both the Chiefs and the Vikings are very good teams, and projected to easily make the playoffs.  Watching last week's game on the road in Green Bay, I saw a team that just didn't have anything left energy wise.  They came out in the first quarter and played right with Green Bay...then it got progressively worse as the game went along.  They traveled from Minnesota to Indianapolis to London to Green Bay and now to Houston in the past 5 weeks.  I don't give a crap who you are, who your coach is, who your starting QB is.  That's just too much to overcome, especially if Josh Jacobs is unable to go.  If he is able to go...it's "just" a two touchdown win for the Texans.

Prediction:  Texans 35  Raiders 13

Pats & Texans, looks good. 

6-5 in the NCAA...great early, crap late.  Oh well.

Philadelphia Eagles +1.5  ($110 to win $100)

Kitchen sink game.  Whatever they have in the playbook...whatever they have in their hearts...it all has to be left out on the field today.  Cliche as funk I know, but that's what it is.  Bills have the inside track for the Wild Card in the AFC which is nice, but I'm still not sold on their offense.  Should be a fun game with a ton of story lines.

Prediction:  Eagles 26  Bills 21

Tampa Bay vs Tennessee OVER 46  ($110 to win $100)

I said yesterday with the UConn/UMass game...even the worst defense in the world isn't enough to boost a terrible offense.  Well, the Huskies put up 56.  If ever there was a game that coincided with that exact scenario...it's this one.  Ryan Tannehill has a chance to look like Brett Favre today.  Bucs defense has given up 30+ points in 5 of their 6 games.  

Prediction:  Titans 31  Buccaneers 25

Thanks for your picks and write ups, much appreciated, I like the Texans against the Raiders as well.