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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This thread will follow the same outline as previous weeks.
Vote on the matchup YOU want to see analyzed.
We are always looking to bring our community the best betting information and analysis in the industry. One way we’re looking to do this is by bringing more perspectives into the Covers Forum. This NFL season we will be hosting a thread each week in the NFL Betting Forum where one of our sports betting analysts will break down a game for everyone. The best part of this will be the open ended communication that is encouraged to take place from community members. This is your chance to ask our analysts 'how', 'why', 'what' and 'to describe' anything in their analysis. What makes it more valuable is you and the rest of the Covers community will get to vote one the matchup of the week.
Some other notables:
Weekly polls will open on Fridays for the following week’s matchups.
Weekly polls will close Monday’s after the primetime game.
Covers analysts will be following most games but not every game. We have freelancers who follow these other games who, unfortunately, won’t be able to host forum threads.
Thursday games will not be available to choose from. We want to give our analysts at most a week’s notice and since the poll will be posted on Friday’s this doesn’t work out.
We're really excited about this event and we hope it will provide you some valuable information each week.
Just for Mac I like the over 50 in Detroit game lions can't stop a water leak this has the making of a high scoring game.i all ready bet it I think it will go up to51.5 to 52 good luck mac
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Just for Mac I like the over 50 in Detroit game lions can't stop a water leak this has the making of a high scoring game.i all ready bet it I think it will go up to51.5 to 52 good luck mac
Just for Mac I like the over 50 in Detroit game lions can't stop a water leak this has the making of a high scoring game.i all ready bet it I think it will go up to51.5 to 52 good luck mac
I agree this number should go up if the Lions get St. Brown and Swift back in the lineup.
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Quote Originally Posted by Aronrogers:
Just for Mac I like the over 50 in Detroit game lions can't stop a water leak this has the making of a high scoring game.i all ready bet it I think it will go up to51.5 to 52 good luck mac
I agree this number should go up if the Lions get St. Brown and Swift back in the lineup.
Haven't really dug into the game yet but obviously this new Todd Bowles offense is putrid and lacking talent. It wants to run, but has the worst RUSH EPA in football. Tampa should get Julio Jones back and Mike Evans will be there. Russell Gage looked like the next best receiver last week. This defense can win a game by itself as it has already proved.
Kansas City had a great box score in Week 3 despite losing. 5.2 to 3.8 yards per play is a huge difference. The 4 drives they had in the 2H were FG, TO on downs, missed FG and INT. KC wins that Week 3 game 8 of 10 times with the same offensive performance. The difference Sunday night will be if Mahomes can move the ball vs. the Bucs. Im not sold that DAL (poor offensive roster construction in Week 1), NO (Jameis is struggling) and Green Bay are the best tests for this TB defense. Likewise, KC has seen ARI, LAC and IND defenses.
The line hit KC -3 but has headed in the other direction. Not being able to kick a field goal or Xpoint is a tough angle to lay the points. I haven't done enough digging here but can understand why there was buyback on KC -3.
Neither team is playing with a lot of pace and sit in the bottom half in plays per game. There is a reason the total is falling.
I'll be digging into some props THU so will make sure I get some thoughts down here.
Feel free to ask any questions here and post any pertinent information you discover about the game. There is always a way to apply info to derivative markets and that's the best edge we have as bettors. Cheers
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What's up forum? Chiefs at Bucs it is I guess.
Haven't really dug into the game yet but obviously this new Todd Bowles offense is putrid and lacking talent. It wants to run, but has the worst RUSH EPA in football. Tampa should get Julio Jones back and Mike Evans will be there. Russell Gage looked like the next best receiver last week. This defense can win a game by itself as it has already proved.
Kansas City had a great box score in Week 3 despite losing. 5.2 to 3.8 yards per play is a huge difference. The 4 drives they had in the 2H were FG, TO on downs, missed FG and INT. KC wins that Week 3 game 8 of 10 times with the same offensive performance. The difference Sunday night will be if Mahomes can move the ball vs. the Bucs. Im not sold that DAL (poor offensive roster construction in Week 1), NO (Jameis is struggling) and Green Bay are the best tests for this TB defense. Likewise, KC has seen ARI, LAC and IND defenses.
The line hit KC -3 but has headed in the other direction. Not being able to kick a field goal or Xpoint is a tough angle to lay the points. I haven't done enough digging here but can understand why there was buyback on KC -3.
Neither team is playing with a lot of pace and sit in the bottom half in plays per game. There is a reason the total is falling.
I'll be digging into some props THU so will make sure I get some thoughts down here.
Feel free to ask any questions here and post any pertinent information you discover about the game. There is always a way to apply info to derivative markets and that's the best edge we have as bettors. Cheers
Game is staying in Florida, but no prop markets open as of THU afternoon.
INJ news
TB upgrades from DNP to LP -- Godwin, R.Jones, LT Donovan Smith (Hicks and Perriman DNPS)
KC - Butker and MVS LP, Hardman DNP
No props gives us some time to speculate. I'm leaning on a Mahomes INT and looking for -125 or shorter. This same defense gave him fits in SB LV and the coverage might be better this season with 5 INTs already including one vs. Rodgers last week. Running for KC is not an option.
There will be some lower WR totals down the list for the Chiefs. Not sure I can trust JuJu at 55 yards, but Sky Moore and the RBs might be good options for people looking to hit modest totals on the Over. KC will have to pass and getting the RBs involved in the passing game is something teams almost have to do in lieu of a run game.
On the TB side, this looks like a good game to hit Fournette. The WR corp has gotten crowded again with Evans back nd guys getting healthier. Todd Bowles is running the ball a lot more. A 10-yard jump in rushing total week-to-week is quite a bit but there is a bog difference between the Saints and Chiefs run defense. Fournette also was questionable heading into Week 3 and has been held out of the injury report this week which is great news.
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Game is staying in Florida, but no prop markets open as of THU afternoon.
INJ news
TB upgrades from DNP to LP -- Godwin, R.Jones, LT Donovan Smith (Hicks and Perriman DNPS)
KC - Butker and MVS LP, Hardman DNP
No props gives us some time to speculate. I'm leaning on a Mahomes INT and looking for -125 or shorter. This same defense gave him fits in SB LV and the coverage might be better this season with 5 INTs already including one vs. Rodgers last week. Running for KC is not an option.
There will be some lower WR totals down the list for the Chiefs. Not sure I can trust JuJu at 55 yards, but Sky Moore and the RBs might be good options for people looking to hit modest totals on the Over. KC will have to pass and getting the RBs involved in the passing game is something teams almost have to do in lieu of a run game.
On the TB side, this looks like a good game to hit Fournette. The WR corp has gotten crowded again with Evans back nd guys getting healthier. Todd Bowles is running the ball a lot more. A 10-yard jump in rushing total week-to-week is quite a bit but there is a bog difference between the Saints and Chiefs run defense. Fournette also was questionable heading into Week 3 and has been held out of the injury report this week which is great news.
The last time Patrick Mahomes saw this defense, the Chiefs failed to score a touchdown in Super Bowl LV 19 months ago. The KC quarterback finished 26 for 49 passing for 270 scoreless yards and two picks, He took three sacks and was under pressure all game.
Heading into Week 4, this is still an elite Tampa Bay defense which is the reason why the team is 2-1 and supporting a sputtering offense. Todd Bowles’ defense has five interceptions already this season and that includes one off of Aaron Rodgers last week and at least one each week.
Mahomes has some of his receiving talent on the trainer’s table this week as Mecole Hardman was LP and Marques Valdez-Scantling DNP
With Antoine Winfield likely in charge of taking away Travis Kelce, it could be another tough day through the air for Mahomes who was picked off last week in a comeback attempt.
-McKinnon Over 15.5 rec yds (-110)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has seen at least four targets in back-to-back weeks and has seen 12 targets to McKinnon’s seven, but the third-down back ran more routes than CEH in Week 3 and had the reins of the two-minute offense. Because of the better output from CEH, bettors are getting a great number on McKinnon’s receiving total at 15.5 — five yards shorter than CEH’s.
McKinnon has seen more snaps than CEH on the season and I’d expected the better pass-catching back to see his fair share of targets operating as the third-down back. His 37.5 total yards is also plenty short considering the even split and CEH sitting at 61.5.
-Longest field goal scored Under 46.5 yards (-115)
Butker was DNP THU, Ammendola was released and was awful in Week 3. Ryan Succop has just 4 attempts at 50-plus over the last four years -- making just one.
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Plays are in
- Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
The last time Patrick Mahomes saw this defense, the Chiefs failed to score a touchdown in Super Bowl LV 19 months ago. The KC quarterback finished 26 for 49 passing for 270 scoreless yards and two picks, He took three sacks and was under pressure all game.
Heading into Week 4, this is still an elite Tampa Bay defense which is the reason why the team is 2-1 and supporting a sputtering offense. Todd Bowles’ defense has five interceptions already this season and that includes one off of Aaron Rodgers last week and at least one each week.
Mahomes has some of his receiving talent on the trainer’s table this week as Mecole Hardman was LP and Marques Valdez-Scantling DNP
With Antoine Winfield likely in charge of taking away Travis Kelce, it could be another tough day through the air for Mahomes who was picked off last week in a comeback attempt.
-McKinnon Over 15.5 rec yds (-110)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has seen at least four targets in back-to-back weeks and has seen 12 targets to McKinnon’s seven, but the third-down back ran more routes than CEH in Week 3 and had the reins of the two-minute offense. Because of the better output from CEH, bettors are getting a great number on McKinnon’s receiving total at 15.5 — five yards shorter than CEH’s.
McKinnon has seen more snaps than CEH on the season and I’d expected the better pass-catching back to see his fair share of targets operating as the third-down back. His 37.5 total yards is also plenty short considering the even split and CEH sitting at 61.5.
-Longest field goal scored Under 46.5 yards (-115)
Butker was DNP THU, Ammendola was released and was awful in Week 3. Ryan Succop has just 4 attempts at 50-plus over the last four years -- making just one.
Mahomes will destroy and humble tampa bay. Read ...read....read...all applicable intangibles r in the news.apply them to your sophisticated game rational
I hv kc at - 2.5
No interception
3 take aways_interception for kc
Tampa will play squat nothing.
I humble to the evolving big picture scenario.
Gd luck
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Mahomes will destroy and humble tampa bay. Read ...read....read...all applicable intangibles r in the news.apply them to your sophisticated game rational
As sac shared, no St. Brown, no Swift, and no DJ Cark. Looking like a tough day for Detroit's Off. Seattle straight up might not be a bad play here. All they have to do is shut down the run game and it should be there's.
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@Aronrogers
As sac shared, no St. Brown, no Swift, and no DJ Cark. Looking like a tough day for Detroit's Off. Seattle straight up might not be a bad play here. All they have to do is shut down the run game and it should be there's.
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