All Forums | NFL Betting

Kaepernick Crash Is Too Easy

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 7537
Posts: 93
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 5296
Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

Already posted plays and reasoning. I made an observation with running QBs and Super Bowls than used this one word, and it set everyone off

1) Inflated line based off the recency of the weekend
2) Fading a first year starter in first road playoff game after he has the game of his life
3) Ryan and ATL have killed the demons, new life and confdience, and they are getting 3.5 with that HF

Situational value is the name of the game. Breaking down stats to support a bet is garbage and Vegas has that down better than anyone.




you can get 4.5 now go grab it before its gone
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 5290
Posted: #52
are you people blind? Kaepernick ISN'T a run FIRST QB.   He has an excellent arm but has the potential the blow off 56 yard TD runs, if the play breaks down.

People use the same f-ucking arguments every week for SF.
-Rookie QB with no experience
-Kaepernick will get injured running how he runs
-How are they ever going to put up points against so and so?
-They can't rely on their defense to win games every time
-Frank Gore is old and useless

WAKE THE F-UCK UP!  SF is hands down the best team in football and will win the Superbowl, even if it means laying the smack down on Tom Brady, again.  There's a reason this is the highest number one seeded dog in a playoff game, ever.  SF is just that d-amn good,

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 1128
Posted: #53
SF sounds too easy to me, may have to get out of this bet

Nah actually add +200 ML and learn how the NFL works, not with Kap and SF in the SB.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 1946
Posted: #54
I will be the first to admit I was wrong about SF last week.  I had GB and GB money line. Kap and SF played what I think was their best game of the season.  If they play that good this week, they will destroy the Falcons.  I am betting ATL because I don't believe SF can go on the road and repeat last weeks performance.  If the game was in SF....totally different game.  If SF does lose, they should look at losing to STL as their demise.  They did get rolled in SEA, but that is a tough place to go....kinda like Atlanta.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2002
Posts: 8191
Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

SF sounds too easy to me, may have to get out of this bet

Nah actually add +200 ML and learn how the NFL works, not with Kap and SF in the SB.

Put more on that moneyline. You seem like the kind of guy who needs to learn an expensive lesson. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2002
Posts: 8191
Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by hawgpix:

I will be the first to admit I was wrong about SF last week.  I had GB and GB money line. Kap and SF played what I think was their best game of the season.  If they play that good this week, they will destroy the Falcons.  I am betting ATL because I don't believe SF can go on the road and repeat last weeks performance.  If the game was in SF....totally different game.  If SF does lose, they should look at losing to STL as their demise.  They did get rolled in SEA, but that is a tough place to go....kinda like Atlanta.

Look at Atlanta's home games this year; not exactly dominant.... Far from it, save the giants game. 

Btw- What nobody mentions is that SF lost in St. Louis with their defense allowing ZERO POINTS in regulation. Rams got a safety, gift fumble recovery for a TD and a 2 pt conversion to send the game to OT.

I'd be ecstatic if their D showed up like that again this week in Atlanta.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 2354
Posted: #57
game of his life? have u not see him KILL NE at gillette stadium?? and beat the best offensive teams in the league? atl's defense is no where near elite..they are overrated #1 NFC seed 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 5290
Posted: #58
The only team ATL played at home that was even decent was Denver early in the season.  Their home field advantage used to be a large factor.  As the line says, it doesn't mean garbage anymore.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 2184
Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

SF sounds too easy to me, may have to get out of this bet

Nah actually add +200 ML and learn how the NFL works, not with Kap and SF in the SB.

Ur ignoring fact 49ers are much better team and betting cause it sounds too easy????

put all ur bank roll on falcons if ur that sure.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2013
Posts: 60
Posted: #60
Kaps QBR has soared each game to a high of 94.7 this past week IN .  His confidence is following suit.  The 49rs Oline is by FAR the most dominant in the league and has been for a few years, its just that Smith has maybe half the natural talent and raw skill that Kap does!!! The switch for Harbs was not a difficult one after watching this guy in practice each week. Bottom line....he will not "crumble" and I confidently expect will dominate the Bird D.  What you are betting in this game is how SF D will fair against ATL O at home.  Ryan looked like Cunningham to Moss all day Sun and will not be that efficient this week vs SF D (a speed based defense on turf no less). There is a reason that an opening line of -1 has gone to -4+ in less than 48hrs. Vegas got smacked around all weekend on the OVER money...they will be looking to recover.  Don't over think this one! Don't be the least bit surprised to see SF win by two scores.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 8153
Posted: #61
One of the best tools in gambling is to buy low sell high. I think Atl got as high as they could after last game.................they miraculously snatched victory from the jaws of defeat! Amazingly they won a playoff game. Bravo.............party over!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 1128
Posted: #62
Sell high? Yeah uhhh SF is in the stratosphere right now.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 1128
Posted: #63
Get this image in your head.

Ryan takes a knee to end the game, turns to the rocking crowd with a finger in the air as confetti comes down, Niners players walk off the field head down in disbelief, Tony Gonz tears flowing, Harbaugh goes out for a poor sport handshake.

Call me Football Nostradamus
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2002
Posts: 8191
Posted: #64
I'll call you football ignoramus instead. How's that sound?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 3164
Posted: #65
Wow, another case of a poster stating his opinion and the thread becoming interesting as hell.  
IMHO, Barrel wasn't being racist, just pointing out his opinion ( or fact, I don't know), about running QBs.  Also, Barrel, if you're an Atlanta fan, I would expect that, along with the black QB (Vick) remark.  
The avatar looks like a WWII aviator, but I could be wrong

Again, turned into an entertaining ( and somewhat informative, in spots) thread. 

Don't beat me up for this post, not trying to offend anyone
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 2354
Posted: #66

Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

Get this image in your head.

Ryan takes a knee to end the game, turns to the rocking crowd with a finger in the air as confetti comes down, Niners players walk off the field head down in disbelief, Tony Gonz tears flowing, Harbaugh goes out for a poor sport handshake.

Call me Football Nostradamus

what world do you live in

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 6630
Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by WizrduvOdz:

Wow, another case of a poster stating his opinion and the thread becoming interesting as hell.  
IMHO, Barrel wasn't being racist, just pointing out his opinion ( or fact, I don't know), about running QBs.  Also, Barrel, if you're an Atlanta fan, I would expect that, along with the black QB (Vick) remark.  
The avatar looks like a WWII aviator, but I could be wrong

Again, turned into an entertaining ( and somewhat informative, in spots) thread. 

Don't beat me up for this post, not trying to offend anyone

The problem is just because they can run doesn't mean they are "run-first" QBs. Some people seem to still live in the past.

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 6630
Posted: #68
Having said that, I do believe the line is inflated.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 12718
Posted: #69
well what a tool --  run first QB, just showed you know shiet about how SF offense runs, they pound the rock, and yes they play read option and the pistol, but harbaugh wants collin to throw the rock first, and run if neccessesarilly second, the kid just takes advantage of what the defense gives him, besides, he can make every throw that is required, and have a cannon of an arm with tremendous zip and its very accurate on the long bombs
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2002
Posts: 7112
Posted: #70
Kap is a weapon no doubt.  Spread option with Frank Gore busting up the middle or Kap going wide will be difficult to contain but it can be done.  Personally I would let him try to win the game with his arm, his runs will kill you.  Take your chances with Davis or Crabtree or Moss beating.  They can keep Vick in the pocket, you can keep Kap there too IMO!  SF can be the better team, sometimes the better team loses.  After all this is only a second year qb in the NFL and first year starter. Carolina and Cam should have beaten Atlanta in Atlanta except for a miracle Hail Mary like what Flacco did to Denver.  Cam is similar to Kap in size and athletic skill in running and arm strength and you played him twice.  So hopefully you have a game plan in place.  Atlanta has weapons and need to keep it close.  I think they do enough to win.  If not we may have Harbaugh versus Harbaugh matchup in SB or at least the first half-white, half-black qb in the SB.  Ask Obama who he is rooting for.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2012
Posts: 1128
Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

This line will close at 3.


Back to 3.5 and will keep going down, 2.5 close? Sharps waited for the chump action on Niners and now all Dirty Bird money
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 11845
Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:



Back to 3.5 and will keep going down, 2.5 close? Sharps waited for the chump action on Niners and now all Dirty Bird money



it's entertaining watching people on Covers follow line moves to "confirm" their play, after first promoting their pick as a "sharp" pick, and then tracking the line move... if the line moves in their favor, they celebrate, as if it doesn't matter whether or not they won their bet... just that they picked the supposed "right side"

meanwhile... it's Tuesday afternoon!... the line went from 3.5 to 4.5 this morning, then dropped to 4 at most places, or 3.5 at a couple others... and you are already starting your victory dance.


point is: the very fact that you are watching the line move like a hawk on Tuesday afternoon, and infer that a line move one way is sharp money but a line move that was bigger in the other direction on that same day is not a sharp move... tells us only one thing:  you are not a sharp!... because sharps don't give a rats behind what the "sharps" are doing... or which way the line is moving... or try to guess if a line move is sharp money or square money...

so whether or not you are right or wrong on this play: we can at least determine that you aren't somebody who's sportsbetting opinion should be mounted upon high ground...


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2010
Posts: 226
Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:



Back to 3.5 and will keep going down, 2.5 close? Sharps waited for the chump action on Niners and now all Dirty Bird money

Or the sharps(or whoever) jump on the better team, and drove the number as high as 5 (I think), and now middlers are betting it back down.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 11845
Posted: #74
if you asked me... the only people who have made a "sharp" wager on this football game, are the few people (myself included) who were able to get SF (-3) with normal juice, in the first few minutes the line opened... all other wagers at all other lines do not look like "sharp" wagers, in my opinion, with the possible exception of ML bets, but i don't consider those to be better value wagers than SF (-3)... which is the best line any SF backers will ever see on this game (for the record)... but who am i to say what's sharp or not?  i barely follow line moves at all, or betting percentages or anything...
 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 11845
Posted: #75
seems i remember lots of people claiming the Seattle - Atlanta line, after opening at Atl -3 normal juice, and dropping as low as Atl (-1)... would go back to Atl -3.5 before gametime... reality is, the best line any Seattle backers ever saw was Sea (+3) normal juice, for about 2 minutes when the line first opened...

the best line any SF backer will ever see in this game was SF -3 normal juice in those first couple minutes... the best you will see from this point on is SF (-3) -120... just like the best you ever saw on Sea (after the opening line) was Sea (+3) -120...

here's why, and it's the same for both games: those same people who hit SF (-3) and Sea (+3) instantly when the line was released... will keep on hitting it at that number over and over limitlessly every time it is offered...

so if you come along and make a bet that puts the line at SF (-3)... that guy who was waiting to pound the opening line... will do it again!... and again!... and again!... and again!... forever!
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.