Sunday night...
The Lions have outscored their opponents by 91 points (157-66) in the first half, the largest margin in the league. The next closest team is +70.
The Texans have been outscored by 40 points in the second half (82-122), 30th in the league.
Bet on Detroit Lions to cover one of the Halves.
REGULAR PLAY: Detroit Lions 1st Half -1.5 -110
Play Lions 2nd Half if they do not cover the 1st Half line.
Jared Goff is 31-10 ATS when playing in a dome.
I rarely pair Faves + Over in the same game. But i do reserve those pairings for competent and efficient QBs like Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford in primetime games, with all healthy arsenals at their disposal.
You need both QBs and offenses in sync to hit that total. This matchup provides both offenses to exploit. McVay likes to pressure and blitz with opportune schemes. Dolphins pass rush is ranked bottom five. Stafford should see plenty of clean pockets tonight.
Rams defense have problems against play action. Tua is a play action video game character; he uses play action on 31.3% of his dropbacks, third in the league. The Rams allow 10.4 Y/A (ranking 30th) against play action.
Tua should be able to mitigate Rams' pressure; he has a 2.28 release after the snap, the quickest in the league. When quarterbacks have thrown the ball within 2.5 seconds of the snaps against the Rams, they have allowed a league-high 7.3 Y/A. And when the Rams have not pressured the opposing passers, they have allowed 8.9 yards per attempt (ranking 30th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (ranking 28th).
Mojo ratings show bad aspects for both QBs but very good ratings for the OLines and offense players. This bodes well for successful offensive schemes.
There are trends that back the Dolphins in this situation: lesser win percentage and lesser ppg output. That becomes negligible as the Dolphins were w/o Tua for those low scoring outings.
The glaring stat is the Dolphin's coach. Mike McDaniel is 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS a a single-digit underdog.
Rams & Dolphins are Under magnets in primetime games: Rams are 13-5 to the Under; Dolphins are 11-2 to the Under.
Money: late money, bettors are pouring in on the home team. And the Over. Total have jumped to 50; in anticipation of Hill's availability.
WR RB Fantasy: Rams ranked 9th in defending WR1; Dolphins 30th against WR1. Rams 25th defending WR2, 23rd defending tight ends.
Rams have trouble defending receiving running backs, ranking 31st, next to last. The Rams are allowing 15.4 rushing points per game (ranking 22nd) and 144 total yards per game (ranking 23rd) to running backs.
I like Jonnu Smith over rec yds prop and...De'Von Achane receiving yards. Achane lines up in the slot and wide against zone defense; the Rams play A LOT of zone coverage (about 40% Cover 3). Count Achane as a WR2 or WR3 when he sees a zone scheme.
RB fantasy: Dolphins have allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs (ranking 31st). Kyren Williams did not record a TD last week. I think he is due for one or more redzone conversion tonight.
TE fantasy target: Jonnu Smith & Colby Parkinson Both TEs with optimal mojo ratings.
I have access to Pro Football Focus ratings for such matchups. Jonnu Smith is showing a 77% catch rate going up against Christian Rozeboom, who ranks much lower than the injured Troy Reeder. The Rams have allowed an 80% catch rate (ranking 28th), 9.5 yards per target (ranking 31st), and an 8% touchdown rate (ranking 28th) to tight ends.
Colby Parkinson ... i will probably lay off making a prop play as Jordyn Brooks is one of Miami's best defensive player. Besides Colby is showing a season low participation in Ram's offensive schemes.
The Dolphins are a top-10 penalized team in the NFL. The Rams are one of the least penalized teams in the NFL, ranking 28th overall.
Referee assignment: Ron Torbert
In the Sean McVay era, the Rams are 9-2 SU in games officiated by Ron Torbert.
When playing at home, the Rams are 5-0 with Torbert including their Super Bowl LVI victory over the Bengals at SoFi Stadium in 2022.
As favorites, the Rams are 8-0 on the moneyline and 6-2 ATS with Ron Torbert's crew.
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