Chiefs vs 49ers
This matchup has some added buzz to it after the 49ers surprised the football world by trading for Panther's running back Christian McCaffrey on Thursday. He was merely an observer at Friday's practice and isn’t likely to feature much in this game. Despite that, the 49ers did receive some favorable injury news on Friday ahead of hosting the Chiefs on Sunday in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV.
Kansas City lost last weekend at home to Buffalo in the battle of the two consensuses best teams in the AFC. San Francisco’s move on Thursday clearly suggests that the Niners think they have the opportunity to make a deep playoff run in a wide-open NFC, but the 49ers sit at just 3-3 through six weeks.
The Chiefs have shown some cracks at various points in the first six weeks despite their 4-2 record. The offensive line has quietly allowed a ton of pressure and now that the 49ers are getting healthy defensively, this game could be lower-scoring than the market expects.
The 49ers have dealt with a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball and still rank first in defensive efficiency by EPA/play through the first six weeks of the season. San Francisco is 1st in overall success rate allowed and third in dropback success rate allowed.
San Francisco is also top 10 in pass rush win rate and top five in run stop win rate. It’s an elite and well-coached defensive unit that is more than capable of taking away the middle of the field.
Now the 49ers will have star pass rusher Nick Bosa back for this game after he was a full participant in practice on Friday. We saw last week the impact that one elite game-wrecking defensive end can have on a game when Von Miller’s pressure forced Patrick Mahomes into the game-losing interception late in the fourth quarter.
Bosa has 31 pressures and six sacks in five games this season and both of Kansas City’s offensive tackles are allowing more pressure this year than in years past. Both rank inside the top 15 in most pressures allowed and that’s a huge risk to drag this KC offense down.
Safety Jimmie Ward was also taken off the injury list and he’s sure to feature in the defensive game plan against Travis Kelce, along with star linebacker Fred Warner.
Pressure has derailed the Chief's offense at various points of the season and the 49ers will be able to get enough to slow down Mahomes on Sunday. Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Las Vegas for parts of the game showed the blueprint to slowing KC down is taking advantage of the lack of explosiveness and the holes in the offensive line.
The Chiefs will be forced to take long drives to get to the end zone and will be almost entirely one-dimensional.
San Francisco’s offense is at its best when it’s able to run the ball effectively and the return of both Mike McGlinchey and Trent Williams along the line will go a long way toward helping them keep the ball on the ground. San Francisco’s run effectiveness dropped off considerably last week against the Falcons, but the Chiefs have shown vulnerability against the run. So with all that being said, I like...
Chiefs -1
Easy money!
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