Posted:
#1
Play off time - Let's look at some numbers:
-2.5 LAC 17 19 14 7 8 29
Hou 15 21 11 6 15 19
LAC opened at -2.5 - currently the same or -3 . LAC are better in 2 categories - Off passing at 19 vs 21 and Sagarin rank at 8 vs 15. While Houston is better In Off rushing 15 vs 17; Def rushing 11 vs 14; def passing at 6 vs 7 and schedule strength at 19 vs 29.
On paper - Hous and the points looks like the way to go; however, when you look at other games (playoff and Regular season) where the line opened at -2.5 for the away team and we had this scenario - the data supports taking LAC as they should win by more than 3 points.
My plays based on data I collect:
1. LAC - 3 Even
2. Balti -9 -110
Good luck all
4
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