League Capper is back and posting again

in the NBA forum.   i know a lot of fans been wanting to know where he went. 

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103404394/brooklyn-nets-new-orleans-pelicans

He's just posting to try and get new members bc a lot of members quit following him after his horrible Colts pick last night. Below 50% season. Pelicans lost it was a 4* pick

He had 
Colts +9(5*) +355(1*)

 teaser Colts and under (3*)

all lost

 just telling you guys so you know the truth and don't waste your money. Maybe if everyone quits following him he will post again for free lol

No he aint ... That was a 1 off ...

Ohhhhhhhhh and by the way ... I had Michael Thomas anytime touchdown scorer ... 6 units ... hehehe

he has had a bad season. Not sure if it’s just an off season or what but he’s down about 12-15 units. 

This is the stock market picker fallacy at work.

Whoever is hot this year surely knows something and will remain hot, when in reality 99% of sports handicappers and stock pickers fall in to a random distribution model.

The one thing that is certain, and you could bet your life on:

If you are already laying -110, and you are willing to pay a tax of 600 or 1200 bucks in addition - you are destined for doom.  No other way around it.  Same with management fees in the stock market.  Forget it.  Do something else with your money.

and those people made a lot from his free picks from the prior years anyway so he has that excuse that they cant get as mad...

A record of 59-65 is bad, but not completely horrible. With a BR of 11,000 and playing 110 a game (1% of BR) per game, a bettor would be down 1,250, or 11% of BR. Not good, but not as horrible as some are making it out to be. LC's season win bet of Under with Philly is going to be a winner, so now you're looking at 60-65, or a loss of 10% of BR. A good run in the postseason could bring that up to a loss of 5 or 6% of BR. Not the end of the world.

I think most bettors on this forum could increase their winnings and decrease their losses by following simple money management, which is 1% of BR per play. Anyone who tailed LC and wagered more than 1% of BR per game has no one but themselves to blame. You have to approach this like a business, with preservation of capital your number one priority.

It's not 59-65 because a lot of those losses were max 10 unit bets. -30 units is what that poster said above, but I think it's closer to -40. He was down 10 units and then lost 3 max 10 unit bets. 

Doc...  Agree 100% with your major premise.  But if you put in the management fee (the cost of subscription), and drew a year on year graph, it is impossible to overcome the tax.

I wonder if he is actually putting money on his picks now that he's a tout?

So you're saying you put money on EVERY pick you sold this year?

This reminds me of Megalocks.......after 3 successful seasons here at Covers, he went pro and added 2 more solid seasons. This year he's at 42% overall, and only has a few winning weeks all season long. No one and I mean NO ONE, wins every year and it's not fair to judge anyone by one season.

This also reminds me of Simon over at Pregame, who had numerous great seasons giving his picks away- I think for 6 or 7 years. I made a fortune just following him. Then he went pro for college baskets and football and now has 7 straight losing seasons, some were ultra bad. 

poster, you're a moron.. goodbye

To judge a handicapper accurately, you need at least 300 games, minimum. Anyone who doesn't understand that should not be betting the games. If you add LC's record this year with his record for the last two years, you'll get an honest appraisal.

[image from unapproved source]“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”

Theodore Roosevelt
Speech at the Sorbonne, Paris, April 23, 1910