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Let me help you...NFL Week 11...

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Posted: #1
Good Evening Gentlemen...

My weekly initial review and gut reactions to the lines for this weeks games...last week, my gut went 8-4-1 if I am remembering correctly...might need to pay more attention to it this week...

G.B. at Seattle -2.5...Short week for both teams, usually favors the home team.  Pretty close on DVOA but edges to Seattle on defense..Lean to the Seahawks and UNDER 49.

Carolina -4 at Detroit...Strangely, that a$$ whipping the Panthers got might just be exactly what is needed for this strange team...the Lions might be exactly what they need as well...just don't see the Lions holding up well vs a refocused Panther squad....Carolina wins this by 10+.

Dallas at Atlanta -3...The Falcons gave up 424 yards to the Browns last week in that loss...you read that right...Dallas might have found something in the win vs Philly...I'll take the points here but strong lean for an outright upset...

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-?)...no line yet...I anticipate a -6 to -7 line...anything under -7 will be a strong bet on Baltimore...this Bengals team is done this year...I don't see them being competitive in this game vs this Ravens defense...Strong play on Baltimore at a good number.

Minnesota at Chicago -2.5...Defensive struggle...my initial thought is UNDER 45...Chicago with large advantages in both offensive and defensive DVOA...like them to cover the small number here at home.

Philly at N.O. Saints -8...Line opened at -7.5 and up to -9 at some shops now...and for good reason, the Eagles secondary is a complete train wreck and not going to get better by Sunday...this might be my GOY but if not, definitely the GOM/GOW...keying this into all parlays and teasers...playing it straight and don't worry about the -8...-9...-10...this will be similar to the Cincinnati game last week.

Tennessee at Indianapolis -1.5...the Titans have found something and Indy will run into a tough defense this week.  The Colts went scoreless in the 2H vs Jax last week...don't think the Titans won't be reviewing the video on that...Luck gets shut down this week as the Titans roll...24-13 upset victory...

Houston at Washington -3...ahh...the dreaded 3 point home favorite...the Texans off a bye week...I'm one who believes the Texans have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors...the Redskins might have the defense to shut down this circus side show...Washington by 7 with a lean to the OVER 42...

T.B. Buccaneers at NYG (-?)...no line for this game yet at my book but some show it opened at PK and went to NYG -2 now...I don't even care that I lost with S.F. last week, I am auto fading Eli and I will not stop...and despite the very low points from the Bucs last week, leaning OVER in this game as well...

Denver at LA Chargers -7...these teams are much closer in DVOA than you would suspect at first glance..Denver around 7th to 9th overall and the Chargers around 5th overall...lots of points and Rivers struggled with the Raiders last week and had no completions in the 1st quarter for only the 4th time in his career...he might have more trouble this week...taking the Broncos and the points here...lean to the OVER 46.5...

Oakland at Arizona -4.5...the Cardinals favored...you don't hear that often but the Raiders are truly bad..should be a low scoring game and I like the Cardinals to cover this comfortably...

Pittsburgh -5 at Jacksonville...I'm sorry, but coming off that destruction of Carolina, the Steelers MUST have some letdown, even if only for the first half...they should come back and take care of business in the 2H as its time for their playoff run to start...but if the Jags can dial up the defense that shut down Indy last week in the 2H, the Steelers won't be running away with this one...leaning JAX and the points here...

K.C. Chiefs at LA Rams -3...game has been moved out of Mexico City and back to the LA Coliseum due to bad field conditions in Mexico..the Chiefs defense is still very bad so the Rams will score at will and of course the Chiefs will score...OVER the number...63...64...whatever...lean to the Chiefs as well.

Your thoughts?

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Posted: #2
Wait what? Washington is +3 you have that game backwards
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Wait what? Washington is +3 you have that game backwards

You are correct...

Thank you for your correct observation...

Liking Washington even more now...

Houston is a pretender that will fade down the stretch...

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Posted: #4

Fitzmagic is garbage.  His true skills are finally showing.  He had his moment of fame in September.  Now teams have figured him out, he has turned into turnover machine.  There was a reason why Jets didn't keep him, and Patriots refused to sign him when they appeared to have a need for a backup quarterback.  Giants' defense will cause Fitzmagic to throw interceptions twice and win the games over Tampa Bay.

 

Minnesota defense will devour Trubisky and win the game or at least stay within the spread.

 

Atlanta will whip Dallas after Dallas won a do-or-die game against Eagles.  The limited offense of Dallas will once again be exposed, and Dallas will be put into its rightful place.

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by CoreyPaus:

Fitzmagic is garbage.  His true skills are finally showing.  He had his moment of fame in September.  Now teams have figured him out, he has turned into turnover machine.  There was a reason why Jets didn't keep him, and Patriots refused to sign him when they appeared to have a need for a backup quarterback.  Giants' defense will cause Fitzmagic to throw interceptions twice and win the games over Tampa Bay.

 

Minnesota defense will devour Trubisky and win the game or at least stay within the spread.

 

Atlanta will whip Dallas after Dallas won a do-or-die game against Eagles.  The limited offense of Dallas will once again be exposed, and Dallas will be put into its rightful place.


As many years as Fitzmagic has been in the league, you would think that teams "figured him out" many years before this...yet he still continues to put up multiple 300/400 yard passing games every season...despite the game last week not producing points, almost any game he is in is a candidate for an OVER the number result...as bettors, we must be aware that turnovers USUALLY lead to points in the NFL...

Minnesota and Chicago both are very good defensively...the Chicago defense puts the kind of pressure on QBs that makes life very difficult...pressure up the middle...don't see either team scoring a lot in this game...

Dallas really might have turned a corner in the Philly game...they did things they have not done all season...I feel a sense of urgency now that was not there before...if Atlanta smashes them, then it was all just gas from that burrito I had from dinner...

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Posted: #6
"Let me help you..."? Sorry I just find that so arrogant and funny.

You don't even make bets or track your record yet you think you can help anyone? LOL

It's more like... Let US help YOU, kid.

You can't even get the lines right. Redskins are +2.5 or +3 with juice attached. Not -3.

The Colts opened -3 and are now -2.5. Not -1.5. -1.5 is the 1H line, not the game line.

The Rams are -3.5 with juice attached. Not -3.

And your analysis is completely wrong on Dallas, Washington, Tampa Bay, Denver, and Jacksonville. You're going to get killed betting those teams.

Sorry, but you just don't know what you're doing and definitely aren't helping anyone. Also, by asking for everyone's thoughts it's clear you're not confident in your own opinions. And that's fine on the surface to ask people's opinions, but with the arrogant thread title you used here, one would expect the thread creator to be an amazing capper with an excellent proven documented record and you're none of those things.

Like most, you're a regular joe who lacks the confidence and knowledge in making his own bets which, again, is fine on the surface, but it makes no sense in creating threads like this with such a patronizing tone. WE are the ones helping YOU afterall. Good luck

 
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Posted: #7
^ Lol 
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by pepp:

"Let me help you..."? Sorry I just find that so arrogant and funny.

You don't even make bets or track your record yet you think you can help anyone? LOL

It's more like... Let US help YOU, kid.

You can't even get the lines right. Redskins are +2.5 or +3 with juice attached. Not -3.

The Colts opened -3 and are now -2.5. Not -1.5. -1.5 is the 1H line, not the game line.

The Rams are -3.5 with juice attached. Not -3.

And your analysis is completely wrong on Dallas, Washington, Tampa Bay, Denver, and Jacksonville. You're going to get killed betting those teams.

Sorry, but you just don't know what you're doing and definitely aren't helping anyone. Also, by asking for everyone's thoughts it's clear you're not confident in your own opinions. And that's fine on the surface to ask people's opinions, but with the arrogant thread title you used here, one would expect the thread creator to be an amazing capper with an excellent proven documented record and you're none of those things.

Like most, you're a regular joe who lacks the confidence and knowledge in making his own bets which, again, is fine on the surface, but it makes no sense in creating threads like this with such a patronizing tone. WE are the ones helping YOU afterall. Good luck


...*yawn*....I must be bored this morning...usually don't respond to your type of posts as giving attention to trolls such as yourself is always a waste of time...however...

...I have been wagering on sports longer than you have been alive...seen more $hit than you have wiped off your @ss, boy...or should I say...BOI...

You do realize different books open with different numbers and can have variation in those numbers...lines vary...juice varies...the opinions are just that, you get your best number if you like the selection...

...Since you are a here on Covers...I will teach you how it works...you see, people get together and discuss different ideas and opinions on betting on sports...they ask each other for help and they get help from each other...you are literally the first to detect any condescension in my post titles as there is none intended and none taken by the mature individuals on this site...

...and as far as documented records..lol...I found out years ago that was a fools errand on Covers...it's a waste of time as far as I am concerned...not to disparage any other capper who does it but many of the best do not post their records and they and I have our reasons...you want the record, you figure it out..

The good cappers here know who they are and I know who they are...but...

who are you again?

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Posted: #9

Back on point boys...

Carolina -4 at Detroit..
-  This is my exact thinking. A bye week, refocusing, and a very flawed Lions team is what the doctor ordered. I have a nice sized bet on this at Carolina -3.5 (grabbed the line EARLY).
 
 
Philly at N.O. Saints -8.
- Looks like a great spot for Brees. Philly's secondary is a train wreck -- which is KEY. How are they going to stop Brees AT NEW ORLEANS? I just don't see it. Still capping this game but the question not If I bet the saints, but how many units
 
Tennessee at Indianapolis -1.5...
- I grabbed the Titans at +3 on an early line. Their offense is getting it figured out. Their D is solid. Both teams coming off wins. This should be a great game, but I think the Titans come out ahead.
 
Houston at Washington -3...ahh...the dreaded 3 point home favorite...the Texans off a bye week...I'm one who believes the Texans have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors...the Redskins might have the defense to shut down this circus side show...Washington by 7 with a lean to the OVER 42...
- I am a skins fan and have won plenty off of them over the years. This is NOT a good spot for them. They are built to Run the ball, convert 3rd and manageable, and play stout run D to keep games close. They have Zero big play potential (I believe ranked last in explosive plays). They have >>ZERO<< home field advantage. Its actually embarrassing. Most games this year the opposition have had more vocal fans than us.  Their O-Line is a disaster (all their top guys are injured. Not sure if their LT will be back from his thumb injury this week). They essentially have to rely on the opposition making lots of mistakes (see Fitzmagic) and then use the run game to grind out low scoring wins.
- Seems like an easy Houston win... except.... you have to account for the BOB factor. If Watson can avoid making critical turnovers, Houston should with by a TD. If he does a 'Fitzmagic' impersonation, Redskins win.
- So the question is, do you trust Watson and BOB? Or do you trust the Redskins Formula working again. My money is on the Texans - LARGE.
 
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Posted: #10
I like your thoughts .. not sure about Washington. They gave up a ton of yards to TB. They are smoke and mirrors .. but like Chicago Seattle Carolina Balt NO and Tenn. GL
 
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Posted: #11
MY PLAY OF THE YEAR....

The NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7...OR ...-6.5 by tomorrow game time...

Listen...I don't know what is driving the line this way...if you do, congrats to you...

All I DO know is that I don't care about being SQUARE...

SQUARE...SCHMARE...I DON'T CARE...!

The Saints will DESTROY the Eagles tomorrow!!!

Put the Saints in your teasers...key them in your parlays...pound them in your pleasers...

AUTO WIN MODE ENGAGED!!

Will have the rest of my plays in the morning...

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Posted: #12

ya saints is only team im touching this week pre match. brees lookin like mvp and super bowl mvp this year 

j
 
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Posted: #13
Hey Smacksmiter,

I like being a "square."  Afterall, my username IS "TheSquare."   Anyways, I'll be on the Eagles +8.5 bud whereas you will be on the Saint's spread.  Who knows, the Saints may win by an odd number of 8,  giving BOTH of us a win.. 

BOL this afternoon with your other picks..  
"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
 
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Posted: #14

Agree on a lot of your points. Helps me make some of my decision. What are your thoughts on luck being 9-0 vs Tennessee?  

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by ck01:

Agree on a lot of your points. Helps me make some of my decision. What are your thoughts on luck being 9-0 vs Tennessee?  



...HE IS?????

THAT... is ALL I NEED TO KNOW!!!
WHY, in the world, would I go AGAINST a stat LIKE THAT???
HIS "style of play", is OBVIOUSLY perfectly suited, to dominate THEIR "style of play"!!!
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

Hey Smacksmiter,

I like being a "square."  Afterall, my username IS "TheSquare."   Anyways, I'll be on the Eagles +8.5 bud whereas you will be on the Saint's spread.  Who knows, the Saints may win by an odd number of 8,  giving BOTH of us a win.. 

BOL this afternoon with your other picks..  

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by ck01:

Agree on a lot of your points. Helps me make some of my decision. What are your thoughts on luck being 9-0 vs Tennessee?  


The Colts and Titans are literally almost the same overall DVOA sitting at 15th and 16th in the league respectively...

However, the Titans are significantly better on defense while the Colts are significantly better on offense...these trends obviously have not been fully affected by the last 3 games where the Colts beat bottom feeders while the Titans lost to the Chargers by 1, 20-19 and beat the Cowboys on the road and the Patriots last week at home in a 34-10 beat down...

Mariotta's hand has healed up and the Titans can stop Ebron...they SHOULD employ the same strategy of "pressure up the middle" against Luck and get him out of the pocket...although Luck should handle that better than Brady did, it still will create turnovers and stopped drives...

I like the Titans +2 in this game...Lucks streak stops today...he will be 9-1 vs the Titans after this game...

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Posted: #18
SMACK, I like the Saints as well.  Again I like how you cap, using football stats, and trends, instead of gambling line movement and other weird nothing to do with football stats.   

I have a question though...Are you really playing all those games you talked about in your first post?
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Rowdie22:

SMACK, I like the Saints as well.  Again I like how you cap, using football stats, and trends, instead of gambling line movement and other weird nothing to do with football stats.   

I have a question though...Are you really playing all those games you talked about in your first post?

No...

The first post is just my initial gut reactions to the games when I first see them on Tuesday usually...

Only one official play so far...

THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS!!!

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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Good Evening Gentlemen...

My weekly initial review and gut reactions to the lines for this weeks games...last week, my gut went 8-4-1 if I am remembering correctly...might need to pay more attention to it this week...

G.B. at Seattle -2.5...Short week for both teams, usually favors the home team.  Pretty close on DVOA but edges to Seattle on defense..Lean to the Seahawks and UNDER 49.

Carolina -4 at Detroit...Strangely, that a$$ whipping the Panthers got might just be exactly what is needed for this strange team...the Lions might be exactly what they need as well...just don't see the Lions holding up well vs a refocused Panther squad....Carolina wins this by 10+.

Dallas at Atlanta -3...The Falcons gave up 424 yards to the Browns last week in that loss...you read that right...Dallas might have found something in the win vs Philly...I'll take the points here but strong lean for an outright upset...

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-?)...no line yet...I anticipate a -6 to -7 line...anything under -7 will be a strong bet on Baltimore...this Bengals team is done this year...I don't see them being competitive in this game vs this Ravens defense...Strong play on Baltimore at a good number.

Minnesota at Chicago -2.5...Defensive struggle...my initial thought is UNDER 45...Chicago with large advantages in both offensive and defensive DVOA...like them to cover the small number here at home.

Philly at N.O. Saints -8...Line opened at -7.5 and up to -9 at some shops now...and for good reason, the Eagles secondary is a complete train wreck and not going to get better by Sunday...this might be my GOY but if not, definitely the GOM/GOW...keying this into all parlays and teasers...playing it straight and don't worry about the -8...-9...-10...this will be similar to the Cincinnati game last week.

Tennessee at Indianapolis -1.5...the Titans have found something and Indy will run into a tough defense this week.  The Colts went scoreless in the 2H vs Jax last week...don't think the Titans won't be reviewing the video on that...Luck gets shut down this week as the Titans roll...24-13 upset victory...

Houston at Washington -3...ahh...the dreaded 3 point home favorite...the Texans off a bye week...I'm one who believes the Texans have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors...the Redskins might have the defense to shut down this circus side show...Washington by 7 with a lean to the OVER 42...

T.B. Buccaneers at NYG (-?)...no line for this game yet at my book but some show it opened at PK and went to NYG -2 now...I don't even care that I lost with S.F. last week, I am auto fading Eli and I will not stop...and despite the very low points from the Bucs last week, leaning OVER in this game as well...

Denver at LA Chargers -7...these teams are much closer in DVOA than you would suspect at first glance..Denver around 7th to 9th overall and the Chargers around 5th overall...lots of points and Rivers struggled with the Raiders last week and had no completions in the 1st quarter for only the 4th time in his career...he might have more trouble this week...taking the Broncos and the points here...lean to the OVER 46.5...

Oakland at Arizona -4.5...the Cardinals favored...you don't hear that often but the Raiders are truly bad..should be a low scoring game and I like the Cardinals to cover this comfortably...

Pittsburgh -5 at Jacksonville...I'm sorry, but coming off that destruction of Carolina, the Steelers MUST have some letdown, even if only for the first half...they should come back and take care of business in the 2H as its time for their playoff run to start...but if the Jags can dial up the defense that shut down Indy last week in the 2H, the Steelers won't be running away with this one...leaning JAX and the points here...

K.C. Chiefs at LA Rams -3...game has been moved out of Mexico City and back to the LA Coliseum due to bad field conditions in Mexico..the Chiefs defense is still very bad so the Rams will score at will and of course the Chiefs will score...OVER the number...63...64...whatever...lean to the Chiefs as well.

Your thoughts?

Bangles season is done at 5-4?  Seriously? More like Bangles are in a fight for their playoff lives. Flaco is out if I'm not mistaken so Larmar Jackson may be QB.  I'm taking Bangles plus points.   GL on your play 
 
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Posted: #21
Thanks for the reply Smack.  That's how I like to play too, well It's how I win  more anyway.  It seems the more bets I place my balance goes down, whereas if I just make 1 or 2 I really like, then my balance goes up.  
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Navi:

Bangles season is done at 5-4?  Seriously? More like Bangles are in a fight for their playoff lives. Flaco is out if I'm not mistaken so Larmar Jackson may be QB.  I'm taking Bangles plus points.   GL on your play 

This was written as a first impression on the game early in the week...and I do still believe that Cincy is on the decline...they will not make the playoffs and with all their injuries they will struggle to be competitive against the top 10 teams...

However, now that Lamar Jackson is QB for the Ravens this week, the calculations change...this should give Cincy a shot in this game...

Lean Cincy but I'm not playing the game myself...

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Second official play...

Denver +7...

As you would expect, LAC with the better offense and Denver with the better defense per DVOA...but Denver is a much better DVOA team than their record indicates...

They play very close games against high level competition...

Lose to Texas 19-17...2 points...
Lose at Chiefs 30-23....7 points...
Lose to Rams 23-20.....3 points...
Lose to Chiefs 27-23.....4 points...

Throwout that blowout loss to the NYJs and 4 of their last 5 losses have come at an average of 4 points per game to competition as good or better than the LA Chargers...

Good value with the +7 here...make sure you get it at 7...this is the NFL after all...

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Third and fourth official plays...

K.C. Chiefs +3.5...OVER 62.5...

The Rams defense of late has been sliding...not good when playing a Chiefs game which is matching historic offensive numbers....

Despite the Chiefs having their lowest offensive output of the season last week vs the Cardinals, they are STILL averaging 37.4 ppg on the ROAD this season...

The Chiefs defense has slightly improved over earlier this year, but still ranks 25th in DVOA...the Rams will score on this defense with no problem...But the Rams cannot outscore the Chiefs

I will gladly take the points in what could likely be a close game...and ...I will take the OVER 62.5 in this game as well...the oddsmakers just can't make this total high enough for this game...

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Posted: #25
Fifth and sixth official plays...

Carolina -4 and OVER 48.5...

The Panthers were ranked 3 in overall DVOA before their beat down by the Steelers...dropped to 12th for this week which gives us some VERY nice bounce back value vs one of the bottom feeders of the NFL...

Make no mistake about it...the Lions are seriously BAD...29th overall DVOA...offensive DVOA 19th...defensive DVOA 30th...basically this means they can score a bit but can't stop anyone...

The Lions are giving up an average of 31.6 ppg in their 6 losses this year and are on a 3 game losing streak since trading away Golden Tate...might have been a bad move...just sayin...

The Panthers roll the Lions today...plenty of points as the Lions will find a way to score 20-24 vs a Panther team with a 24th ranked defensive DVOA...



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