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Lines dictates the game....

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Posted: #1101
Only took money line. This game was too prime time for pacers to be the run away favorites, and 3.5 was a gamble , Miami king again..... Lol 
 
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Posted: #1102
yeah but you have to remember this somehow the next time these games occur... I use spread sheets,,alot of them... If it were me i would have a spread sheet just for the 2nd and 3rd time they play and measure the scoring margins vs the spread and use actual dates... The nba isnt primed yet i dont think.. But its getting there because the nfl is about to be over... tuesdays through fridays i would focus on the most... Hope this helps
 
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Posted: #1103
50% of my winnings will be put aside and placed on a "secret" locked bank account, and then next year i will unlock this account and throw all the money on Baltimore UNDER xx games. But only if they manage to beat Patriots or Bengals. 
 
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Posted: #1104
Boston you back in the NFL? In regards to your original post.. 
 
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Posted: #1105
i really dislike over unders. unless its obvious it will be a public massacre.

with teams if u have a good sense of what the bigger picture is. u can always double down. i learned my lesson trying to double down on the under patriots a long time ago. and they kept hitting overs 
 
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Posted: #1106
i also feel like an unknown team from the east will make some noise on that 3rd seed. if it is just pacers heat. it will be to boring. brooklyn was too obvious. maybe a team with no stars. the hawks maybe.

still need to do research
 
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Posted: #1107
If yesterdays Mia game was MIA -5 or more,, i would take Mia SU...But since its at 3.5 to 4 you have to play it safe and take the ML. This corresponds to the exact reasoning Boston has on this thread...
 
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Posted: #1108
See most peoples emotion would say the heat would take revenge considering their last game when both teams met,, it wasnt long ago,, so this game is still fresh in everyones memories... And with the heat being at home... Public will not take INDY,, because they seek revenge... But if it were Mia -5 or more,, i dont think you will see as much action atleast not this part of the season... 
 
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Posted: #1109
i was looking forward on that game.

when pacers play heat in the playoffs. i dont believe they want pacers 3-1 or 4-0 in regular season matchups against the heat. i believe they want the stat sheet to say 2-2. so it was heat ml for me. if not wait 3 months and triple down next match up
 
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Posted: #1110
They dont look that long term eventhough i suspect they already have teams that are chosen for the finals...Besides the public or your average novice would never dig that deep and interpret what it means for the coarse of the season.. As far as looking at a stat sheet its important to note how far apart those games are and which part of the season it is because this alters public perception... Sometimes the media even tries to remind what just happend or what happend a long while ago for a reason... 
 
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Posted: #1111
For a reason the media may not even know.. They are told what script to read off of... My buddy managed a team for fantasy on one of the major networks in the past,, and with him having no knowledge of sports betting,, he even said its all scripted... 
 
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Posted: #1112
And when you have the perfect squares to fade like Tank and i... You really do not need to know a whole lot on a selected few games... Because the numbers just show,, the consistant squares ive seen just unable to even break even on any given week,, its near the season end,, that's alot of games they lost... I need to pick up a few more squares for nba... It cuts down the amount of time in capping your own games... But automatiically your win percentages will increase that is if you have the perfect square... 
 
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Posted: #1113
I will give you another secret... The two best squares i have,, are pretty much sheep... They completely believe its all real and they remember what they just saw last week without ever questioning the integrity of the game... They are comepletely blinded by bad calls , missed Fg, or defense wanting to show up or not... Because honestly no one wants to see that unless if its a game saving flag LOL and usually for the squares,, its a game ending flag or they their team wins but it doesnt cover the spread... Those point spreads are getting down to the science now adays... Those refs are highly experienced,, which basically means over the coarse of a long period,, that window because larger due to the fact that vegas has this crystal ball and it lands right on the number more than it should... Just like the heat game yesterday.. I mean just yesterday LOL
 
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Posted: #1114
i completely agree holding.

these refs are very good

i remember when orlando was covering alot with dwight years back. and every1 was jumping on the bandwagon. the shaved some games but no1 noticed. each time dwight wod score they wod call a foul on the ground. ball out of bounds. shaved 4-8 pts a game. and even when out of fouls he wod at best go 1-2 fts people dont notice these small details
 
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Posted: #1115
i do believe heat do not 3peat that is all the media is pushing. 3peat heart of a champion blah blah blah. so to keep the image heat won last night. i do think they plan it ahead.

like the lakers boston finals. i went 7 for 7 against the spread that year. i was laughing at everyone thinking game 6 lakers would get blown out, because it happened 3 years ago. then everyone thought lakers wod walk all over boston in game 7 public (my friends) wrong again.
 
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Posted: #1116
For a reason the media may not even know.. They are told what script to read off of... My buddy managed a team for fantasy on one of the major networks in the past,, and with him having no knowledge of sports betting,, he even said its all scripted... 


i always wonder when the line is over under paul pierce 31.5 points and he hits 32 for the game.

then a few games later its 24.5 and he scores 24.

and he averaged 27ish that year half way through the season.

I was thinking does pierce look at the line b4 the game? wtf
 
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Posted: #1117
Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

that window because larger due to the fact that vegas has this crystal ball and it lands right on the number more than it should... Just like the heat game yesterday.. I mean just yesterday LOL


Just another example of how you are the actual square around here, and the biggest sheep of all.  What you wrote above is one of the biggest sports betting fallacies around and you spew it out as if it's some sharp thought process.  In the NFL, the final score only stays within 3 points of the spread roughly 25% of the time over the course of a season.  Just for the hell of it I checked the last 3 weeks and it was dead on at 25%.

You're have no clue what you're talking about and it is hilarious that you have no idea that YOU are the definition of this "sheep" you keep referring to.
 
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Posted: #1118
When you have too many stars on one team,, the public will inflate this line unless if its fishy,, further more book makers know what sharps know because they know where the action comes from... The key is identifying the TYPE of game it is.. Forget about all those stars man,, Fade them... 
 
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Posted: #1119
Im here to wake up the sheep... Dont you worry... I know you hate it...
 
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Posted: #1120
Zero rebuttal every time, just jibberish.
 
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Posted: #1121
j-walk.

can u explain to me why sf only beat seattle by exactly 2?

gore could have ran in for the td to win by 6. and they had plenty of times to score from the redzone. but it was properly managed to win by 2. who knows might be a coincidence 

1 time= chance
2 time= coincidence
multiples times = bull chit 
 
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Posted: #1122
Quote Originally Posted by kaboons:

j-walk.

can u explain to me why sf only beat seattle by exactly 2?

gore could have ran in for the td to win by 6. and they had plenty of times to score from the redzone. but it was properly managed to win by 2. who knows might be a coincidence 

1 time= chance
2 time= coincidence
multiples times = bull chit 


Well first of all this has nothing to do with the point I made above, but I'll still play along. 

I didnt watch or bet that game but from the complaints I read from people that week I think I understood the situation and what happened.  The 49ers were able to drain the clock down to 26 seconds left and get a chip shot field goal.  You ask any NFL coach which situation they'd rather be in....up by 2 with 26 seconds left or up by 6 with 2 minutes left.  Which one would you choose?  Give Russell Wilson time to put together a drive or give Russell Wilson a few hail mary attempts?  Frank Gore made a great unselfish decision.
 
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Posted: #1123
cant disagree with what u said. 

i was watching the game. and from mid 3rd qtr it seemed like the game was already written in stone. it was set up to end exactly with what u wrote above. which makes sense. but  where i disagree is 49ers had chances to end the game alot earlier and it wouldnt need to come down to a final fg to win.

so you ask an nfl coach. would u rather win by 2 with 26seconds left? or by 10-14, and never leave the game in doubt.
 
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Posted: #1124
He knows why... He's acting like he doesnt... He's trolling... Only dusty , boston, kaboons and tank have a mutual understanding... Trolls just shout ,, they have no reason to back up their argument considering they have no rebuttal... Boston should get some of those comments deleted... Sheep would ask how and why if they dont understand.. Trolls do not ask...
 
 
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Posted: #1125
Quote Originally Posted by kaboons:

cant disagree with what u said. 

i was watching the game. and from mid 3rd qtr it seemed like the game was already written in stone. it was set up to end exactly with what u wrote above. which makes sense. but  where i disagree is 49ers had chances to end the game alot earlier and it wouldnt need to come down to a final fg to win.

so you ask an nfl coach. would u rather win by 2 with 26seconds left? or by 10-14, and never leave the game in doubt.


I know man but you need to take yourself out of the gamblers shoes and put yourself into the players and coaches shoes.  Scoring TDs in the red zone is very very tough especially against a premiere defense.  I looked it up, San Fran scores a TD 56% of the time they are in the red zone, just barely above a coin flip.  So to assume they should automatically score a TD simply cause they made it into the red zone is not the right mindset.
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