Posted:
#1
I'm not making this post to look like a genius...even a monkey can pick a 4 team parlay of winners out of a hat if enough monkeys do it...i played Detroit to win +420 last week and almost hit with a solid effort by the lions. Almost pays $0 though. But there is a MUCH greater chance at riches this week.
The bottom line here is that +1050 is just beyond ridiculous for one NFL team to give to another when its not Joe Montana's 90's Niners or Brady's Patriots of last year laying the chalk. This is a beat up Colts team and not even close to the one's of yesteryear's Super Bowl Champions.
If you see an mathematical advantage you take it...this game is paying 10.5 to 1. Simply, that means if the lions win ONCE out of the next 11 (and a half) games you break even. So you ask yourself, if the lions played the colts at the colts, could they win more than once out of 11 (and a half) games? If your answer is yes, you should make this bet. And i would find few on here, who wouldn't think that if these two teams played almost 3 quarters of a season of football games, the lions wouldn't come away with a minimum of two wins. Plus you have the added desperation factor, and national media spotlight the lions have to endure and are desperate to leave. You also have basically all the sports analysts now jumping on "the lions wont win a game this year" bandwagon which is great fading material.
$50? to pay $525 ...that's a legit payout in my opinion and has too much value to ignore. It takes big risks to make big money. I'm more comfortable trying to have one terrible team win a game outright than 4 good teams cover spreads with a parlay that bookies set at a coin-toss (which has about a 6% chance of winning if you believe that the bookies set the line perfectly).
Big risks yield big rewards:
LIONS +1050
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