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Lions = OVERRATED

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Posted: #1
Convince me otherwise.  They haven't won a game by more than a TD, they lost to Green Bay, Chicago, and Houston on the road.

Why are so many people betting them over the Saints at New Orleans?  Are they blinded by their W-L record?

I have the Saints just outside of the top 10 in NFL teams.
I have the Lions well outside of the top 20 in NFL teams.

I realize this doesn't mesh with their records, but I don't think their records tell the full story.  

I didn't want to take a dump in anyone's thread betting on Detroit, I'm just genuinely curious what the allure is?

I started a thread yesterday with their offense/defense rankings according to DVOA:

1. Detroit @ New Orleans

.....NOS OFF vs. DET DEF = Advantage NOS (more neg > adv)
Pass 5 ......... 32 ...... -27
Run. 6 ......... 28 ...... -22 .. SUBTOTAL = -49

.....DET OFF vs. NOS DEF = Advantage DET (more neg > adv)
Pass 10 ........ 25 ...... -15
Run. 31 ........ 15 ...... +16 .. SUBTOTAL = +1

Advantage NOS = -50 (more neg > adv)

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102353286

I just want to make sure I am not way off base in my assessment.

If I am reading this correctly, 63% of the public is on Detroit ATS:
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/
 
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Posted: #2
I'm on Detroit +5.5
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

I have the Lions well outside of the top 20 in NFL teams.


That just tells me you have no idea how to make your own power rankings or you have personal bias affecting your decision.

They've beaten the Vikings twice, Redskins, Eagles, Colts and Rams.   Three of those are legitimate post season football teams.  I don't know exactly what your definition of "well-outside" is but they belong in the top ten. 

They are leading their division, in case you didn't know.   So if they are "well-outside" your top 20, that would mean the packers, vikings and bears would need to be 32, 31 and 30 respectively.  I suggest you rethink your power rankings and go watch some game film.  There are certain intangibles in football, and Stafford and the cardiac cats definitely have a ton of heart. 

Not saying they win outright, although it is a damn good possibility, but they easily cover the spread this week. 

Good luck
 
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Posted: #4
Slay and Ansah coming back has been really helpful, the last 5 games they've given up 20 pts or less, Levy might be back. This won't be enough to stop NO, but it will slow them down enough for them to hang there on offense

Goff just scored 3 TDs on NO D...I think Stafford should be just fine. In all seriousness NO can't stop anyone. Lions are a much better team than people think due to a few key injuries. They also haven't lost to anyone by more than 7 all year (aware that spread is 6, but they can keep it close)


 
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Posted: #5
Detroit by no means do I believe to be a powerhouse.. but to say they're out of the top 20 in the NFL is a stretch to say the least.. as stated already, as like every team, they've battled through injuries (Slay, Ansah, Levy)- that's their 3 best defensive players.. Ameer Abdullah--starting running back.. and still have scraped to a 7-4 record.. that's pretty impressive... with those players coming back, Abdullah rumored to come back this season along with Levy.. I think they've set themselves up pretty good.. now, this week against NO, isn't the easiest of places to win at.. but, thinking it's crazy for one to back Detroit seems much.. they have turned it up defensively, Stafford is playing error free for the most part, and they're confident at the moment.. I'm not saying Detroit is the play or not.. but I can see why someone would back either side in this one...
 
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Posted: #6
OK...it sounds like people are way over-valuing their record and assume just because they have a better record they are better than everyone else in their division.

Here's their weekly DVOA ranking this season (below link).  Ever since week 4 they have been play at the bottom 25% of teams in the league.

https://i.sli.mg/nn6qmU.png

According to last week's DVOA Lions are playing at a level as worst team in their division, yes even worse than the Bears:

(16) MIN
(18) GBP
(24) CHI
(25) DET
 
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Posted: #7
Here's a pretty good sampling of individual team statistics for each team for the 2016 season,  Detroit is better than Saints in exactly 1 category (I am sure there are other categories, might be debatable how important those other categories are) - I didn't cherry pick these categories, just picked which ones I thought were most influential in the outcome of a game.

Yards per Game

(1) 434 NOS 
(26) 329 DET

Yards per Play

(3) 6.2 NOS 
(14) 5.5 DET

3rd Down Conversion per Game

(1) 6.9 NOS
(18) 5.2 DET

Avg Time of Possesion per Game (Excl OT)
(6) 31:28 NOS
(25) 28:53

NFL Team Avg Scoring Margin
(11) +2.5 NOS
(19) +0.8 DET

Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game
(2) 4.3 NOS
(28) 2.6 DET

Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD Only)
(3) 70% NOS
(11) 62% DET

Opp Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game
(23) 3.5 NOS
(27) 3.5 DET

Opp Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD Only)
(17) 55% NOS
(26) 64% DET

Giveaways per Game
(5) 0.7 DET
(21) 1.5 NOS

Takeaways per Game
(9) 1.5 NOS
(25) 1.0 DET


 
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Posted: #8
I'm not sure how you gathered that from what I said.. they're record is only impressive because they've done it with They're best defensive players out for most of the season and because of how they started season... I've never picked a game by looking at a teams record as the deciding factor.. I think it's just a difference in opinion here.. which is cool... but, any rankings putting the hottest team in the division at the very bottom, is a ranking system I want nothing to do with.. just to reiterate, I'm not on either team this Sunday.. just saying I don't think it's outlandish for someone to back Detroit..
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

....


yep professional sports are all about math and statistics.  Balls never bounce in odd ways, players never invest any emotion into the games.  Hell, even your record is irrelevant!  All that matters is data in a spreadsheet, not how many wins you have over your opponents.   I think I missed the memo stating that the regular season is meaningless and Gooddell just puts whatever team has the best PFF ranked players in the SB.

You should take your nose out of the Excel sheets and start watching some football.

If you are so confident in your numbers, what the hell are you doing in here trying to justify your pick?  Just bet your mortgage on the Saints and laugh all the way to the bank.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Moonstormsnow:

I'm not sure how you gathered that from what I said.. they're record is only impressive because they've done it with They're best defensive players out for most of the season and because of how they started season... I've never picked a game by looking at a teams record as the deciding factor.. I think it's just a difference in opinion here.. which is cool... but, any rankings putting the hottest team in the division at the very bottom, is a ranking system I want nothing to do with.. just to reiterate, I'm not on either team this Sunday.. just saying I don't think it's outlandish for someone to back Detroit..

More directed at CajunWF who seems to value W-L record over everything else, than you.

" So if they are "well-outside" your top 20, that would mean the packers, vikings and bears would need to be 32, 31 and 30 respectively. "
 
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Posted: #11
They have been lucky.  Could easily be 4-7, but as they say better to be lucky then good.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by CajunWF:



yep professional sports are all about math and statistics.  Balls never bounce in odd ways, players never invest any emotion into the games.  Hell, even your record is irrelevant!  All that matters is data in a spreadsheet, not how many wins you have over your opponents.   I think I missed the memo stating that the regular season is meaningless and Gooddell just puts whatever team has the best PFF ranked players in the SB.

You should take your nose out of the Excel sheets and start watching some football.

If you are so confident in your numbers, what the hell are you doing in here trying to justify your pick?  Just bet your mortgage on the Saints and laugh all the way to the bank.

I've put my bets down, started thread for confirmation as to why people are betting in droves on the Lions.  Only thing I can come up with is they think the Saints can be scored against.  Where I think they are wrong is that the Lions can be scored against even more easily and the "math" seems to back me up.  Not trying to ruffle anyone's feathers, was just looking for feedback. 

BOL  
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

OK...it sounds like people are way over-valuing their record and assume just because they have a better record they are better than everyone else in their division.

Here's their weekly DVOA ranking this season (below link).  Ever since week 4 they have been play at the bottom 25% of teams in the league.

https://i.sli.mg/nn6qmU.png

According to last week's DVOA Lions are playing at a level as worst team in their division, yes even worse than the Bears:

(16) MIN
(18) GBP
(24) CHI
(25) DET

Maybe you are vastly over rating the usefullness of DVOA?
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Triceratops:


Maybe you are vastly over rating the usefullness of DVOA?

vastly?

In the absence of a better metric, I am sticking with it, it has served me well this season.

Out of curiosity I went to ESPN and gathered some more straight forward stats for you, for comparison:

Offense (yards)
(1) 4775 Saints | Pass (1) | Rush (9)
(27) 3625 Detroit | Pass (17) | Rush (30)

Defense (yards)
(15) 3888 Detroit | Pass (14) | Rush (16)
(25) 4075 Saints | Pass (27) | Rush (12)

Differentials (yards)
+700 Saints
-263 Detroit
=====
+963 Saints / 11 games = +87.5 more yards per game

--------------------

1 Common Opponent

21 LAR @ NOS 49
28 LAR @ DET 31

Saints scored +18 points and gave up 7 less points, +25 point differential compared to Lions

--------------------

Saints score 30.4 points/game
Saints give up 27.9 points/game
+2.5 points/game

Lions score 22.5 points/game
Lions give up 21.6 points/game
+0.9 points/game

Strength of Schedule:
Lions have not played a single team w/ more than 6 wins (11 games into the season, barely .500 opponents ALL SEASON)
Saints have played two teams w/ 7 wins, beating 20 SEA @ NOS 25
, 2 teams w/ 8 wins
and 1 team w/ 9 wins

Given the extremely more difficult SOS 5 teams well above .500 over 11 games, it amplifies their per game point differential compared to Detroit even more so. 
 
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Posted: #15
Saints have a 4-1 record against teams with less than 7 wins so far into the season.

Against those 5 teams Saints average:
37.2 points per game scored'
27.8 points per game given up

for a +9.4 point per game differential

compare this to a 0.9 point differential Lions have against similar quality opponents (using ONLY W-L record)

I think Saints can win by 10 pretty easily at home.

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by CajunWF:



That just tells me you have no idea how to make your own power rankings or you have personal bias affecting your decision.

They've beaten the Vikings twice, Redskins, Eagles, Colts and Rams.   Three of those are legitimate post season football teams.  I don't know exactly what your definition of "well-outside" is but they belong in the top ten. 

They are leading their division, in case you didn't know.   So if they are "well-outside" your top 20, that would mean the packers, vikings and bears would need to be 32, 31 and 30 respectively.  I suggest you rethink your power rankings and go watch some game film.  There are certain intangibles in football, and Stafford and the cardiac cats definitely have a ton of heart. 

Not saying they win outright, although it is a damn good possibility, but they easily cover the spread this week. 

Good luck


Please tell me which of those 3 teams are "Legitimate" playoff teams 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


vastly?

In the absence of a better metric, I am sticking with it, it has served me well this season.

Out of curiosity I went to ESPN and gathered some more straight forward stats for you, for comparison:

Offense (yards)
(1) 4775 Saints | Pass (1) | Rush (9)
(27) 3625 Detroit | Pass (17) | Rush (30)

Defense (yards)
(15) 3888 Detroit | Pass (14) | Rush (16)
(25) 4075 Saints | Pass (27) | Rush (12)

Differentials (yards)
+700 Saints
-263 Detroit
=====
+963 Saints / 11 games = +87.5 more yards per game

--------------------

1 Common Opponent

21 LAR @ NOS 49
28 LAR @ DET 31

Saints scored +18 points and gave up 7 less points, +25 point differential compared to Lions

--------------------

Saints score 30.4 points/game
Saints give up 27.9 points/game
+2.5 points/game

Lions score 22.5 points/game
Lions give up 21.6 points/game
+0.9 points/game

Strength of Schedule:
Lions have not played a single team w/ more than 6 wins (11 games into the season, barely .500 opponents ALL SEASON)
Saints have played two teams w/ 7 wins, beating 20 SEA @ NOS 25
, 2 teams w/ 8 wins
and 1 team w/ 9 wins

Given the extremely more difficult SOS 5 teams well above .500 over 11 games, it amplifies their per game point differential compared to Detroit even more so. 

Most of the stats are completely meaningless in regards to this game.  Who cares how many yards the offense and defense have?  Two different teams that play different brands of football that have both dealt with various injuries to key defensive players.  We all know both qbs can light it up.

Your common opponent actually isn't common at all.  Lions played a Keenum led Rams team when the defense was in the gutter.  Saints played a rookie thats been unfit to start over Keenum all year and an axe to grind with Gregg Williams...they ran up the score on purpose.  

Lions have been without a true rb all year, Ebron has been out several weeks, riddick was out a few weeks and banged up others, Marvin has been shadowed by elite corners since early season.  Lions are the healthiest they have been all year and the defense has been much better

In conclusion, I think all these stats you are basing this play off are worthless.  Im not betting this game but Id take lions if I were, I think it will come down to the wire


 
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Posted: #18
They may be overrated but catching +6 is value. 
Mayweather bet 450000 on
 
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Posted: #19
Since when is winning close games overrated? The best teams win close games

Lions are getting the injury-prone mental case Levy back this week. He should help their defense a lot, even if he isnt at 100 percent. Ansah is finally getting healthy. Theyre getting great contributions, especially in passing situations from the SS/LB rookie Miles Killebrew the last 2-3 weeks. 

A case can be made for any team to be considered overrated. Well, anyone except the Cowboys and Patriots. Even the 8-3 Giants can be considered VERY overrated

The record is what it is. Theyve won close games, which is a sign of a good football team. Great? No. But good.
 
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Posted: #20
Lets look at how the Giants have beaten....

Ravens
Rams
Eagles
Bengals
Bears 
Browns

I would say thats overrated
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by lordbettington:

They have been lucky.  Could easily be 4-7, but as they say better to be lucky then good.

Actually the games theyve lost have been really close. They could very easily be 10-1

They lost to the Titans by 1
They lost to the Bears by 3
They lost to Houston by 7

And Houston plays very well at home.where theyre 5-1
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

Convince me otherwise.  They haven't won a game by more than a TD, they lost to Green Bay, Chicago, and Houston on the road.

Why are so many people betting them over the Saints at New Orleans?  Are they blinded by their W-L record?

I have the Saints just outside of the top 10 in NFL teams.
I have the Lions well outside of the top 20 in NFL teams.

I realize this doesn't mesh with their records, but I don't think their records tell the full story.  

I didn't want to take a dump in anyone's thread betting on Detroit, I'm just genuinely curious what the allure is?

I started a thread yesterday with their offense/defense rankings according to DVOA:

1. Detroit @ New Orleans

.....NOS OFF vs. DET DEF = Advantage NOS (more neg > adv)
Pass 5 ......... 32 ...... -27
Run. 6 ......... 28 ...... -22 .. SUBTOTAL = -49

.....DET OFF vs. NOS DEF = Advantage DET (more neg > adv)
Pass 10 ........ 25 ...... -15
Run. 31 ........ 15 ...... +16 .. SUBTOTAL = +1

Advantage NOS = -50 (more neg > adv)

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102353286

I just want to make sure I am not way off base in my assessment.

If I am reading this correctly, 63% of the public is on Detroit ATS:
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/

And now youre not reading it correctly. Although 63 percent of tickets are bet on the Lions, the MONEY, meaning the sharps that bet a lot of $$$$ on games is on the Saints. 

80 percent of the money is on the Saints. Thats why the Lions moved from 5 to 6

 
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Posted: #23
How does Detroit compare to other 7-win teams?

....... Tot Yards | Def Yards 
ATL ... 4526 ...... 4191 ...... 
SEA ... 3761 ...... 3692 ...... 
DEN ... 3711 ...... 3453 ...... 
MIA ... 3656 ...... 3981 ...... 
DET ... 3625 ...... 3888 ......

Last in total Off Yards, along with Miami they have given up more yards than they have gained.

....... Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game
ATL ... 3.7
SEA ... 3.2
DEN ... 3.3 
MIA ... 3.1
DET ... 2.6

Last again

....... NFL Team Opponent Punt Attempts per Game
DEN ... 5.0 
MIA ... 5.0
SEA ... 4.9
ATL ... 3.8
DET ... 3.4

Last again
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by MaxMoneyMaker:


And now youre not reading it correctly. Although 63 percent of tickets are bet on the Lions, the MONEY, meaning the sharps that bet a lot of $$$$ on games is on the Saints. 

80 percent of the money is on the Saints. Thats why the Lions moved from 5 to 6


Sounds like I read it correctly - spread = public betting ATS
MONEY = money line, no?
 
 
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Posted: #25
Nobody wants to play the Saints right now esp. at home. Their D. is coming around and at home their Off. is almost unstoppable.
Their is no team in the league that is as fortunate to have a winning rec. than det. The Saints are the opp. of det.--they SHOULD be a min. 7-4 if not 8-3 if not for a few spec. teams blunders. Dets  within 7 pt. games end with an overdue thud on sunday.

NO 38
DET 20
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