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Live Dallas +3.5

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Legend
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Captain
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Why would you take live 3.5 when you coulda had 7.5?

That's horrible value.

 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Why would you take live 3.5 when you coulda had 7.5?

That's horrible value.



The 7.5 was available before the game.
Taking +3.5 when the team is up 14-0 is horrible value? 
I would disagree with that.
Every bet has to be evaluated on its own. 
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



The 7.5 was available before the game.
Taking +3.5 when the team is up 14-0 is horrible value? 
I would disagree with that.
Every bet has to be evaluated on its own. 

Gonna strongly disagree with your logic.

 
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Posted: #6
adding+ 8.5 good luck 
 
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Posted: #7
Peyton accepts your donation
 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by silvrhazd:

adding+ 8.5 good luck 

 

See...now that's how you do it! You actually got greater value in game.

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



Taking +3.5 when the team is up 14-0 is horrible value? 



Are you saying the LIVE line, at the point when Dallas was up 14-0, was being offered as Den (-17.5) or Dal (+17.5) for the rest of the game???

 
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Posted: #10
you can get 10.5 now
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
How about +14.5 now.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Gonna strongly disagree with your logic.



According to your logic, if Dallas was up by, say, 17 points with a minute left to go in the game, taking them and +3.5 would be horrible value... because as you say, you could have got them for 7.5.

The point is that you can't just say it's horrible value to take them for less points than 7.5.  That makes no sense.  7.5 points is no longer available when they are already up 14-0.  You have to evaluate the new situation.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:


Are you saying the LIVE line, at the point when Dallas was up 14-0, was being offered as Den (-17.5) or Dal (+17.5) for the rest of the game???


No, the line was indeed +3.5.  But Dallas was up 14-0, so yes, in effect, you are up 17.5 to nothing.  And according to BigNiner, that's horrible value.

(He doesn't know what he's talking about.)
 
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Posted: #14
I agree, terrible value. Great value is getting Denver -3.5 when they were down 14-0!! Or Dallas +14.5 when down 21-17 with Denver driving. That FG helped out that number immensely.
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



According to your logic, if Dallas was up by, say, 17 points with a minute left to go in the game, taking them and +3.5 would be horrible value... because as you say, you could have got them for 7.5.

The point is that you can't just say it's horrible value to take them for less points than 7.5.  That makes no sense.  7.5 points is no longer available when they are already up 14-0.  You have to evaluate the new situation.

The guy posted 3.5 about 7 minutes into the game. That IS terrible value, regardless of the score. Was he expecting a Dallas blowout? Because that is the only way you take that number. There is bound to be some regression, even when a team is up 14-0. If it was 14-0 in the 3rd, then that is a different situation. Like you said, you analyze each specific situation differently, so looking at a 14-0 score a few minutes into the game against a Denver Juggernaut when you could've taken the game line at 7.5 a few minutes earlier, is just plain awful. Again, the only way you take 3.5 is if you expect Denver to get blown out. I was also say, I was proven correct. It was horrible value; IN FACT, the worst value he could have taken AT ANY POINT....before or during!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #16
maybe dallas +13,5 
 
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Posted: #17

Plain and simple, +3.5 was the worst value one could have taken at any point before or during the game. Can't argue with facts.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Plain and simple, +3.5 was the worst value one could have taken at any point before or during the game. Can't argue with facts.


Facts?  What facts are we talking about here?  The eventual outcome of this game is irrelevant.  We're talking "value" here.

You must not have watched much pro football.  (Maybe you're a college football fan?)  In the NFL, a 17.5 cushion, even early in the 1st quarter, with a home team no less, is nothing to take lightly.  This bet will win for you more often than it will lose.  That's what value means.
 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:


Facts?  What facts are we talking about here?  The eventual outcome of this game is irrelevant.  We're talking "value" here.

You must not have watched much pro football.  (Maybe you're a college football fan?)  In the NFL, a 17.5 cushion, even early in the 1st quarter, with a home team no less, is nothing to take lightly.  This bet will win for you more often than it will lose.  That's what value means.

 

I've forgotten more about handicapping than you know, so I'm not going to waste anymore of my time on this thread.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

 I've forgotten more about handicapping than you know, so I'm not going to waste anymore of my time on this thread.



You've forgotten a lot about handicapping, that much is apparent.
 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



You've forgotten a lot about handicapping, that much is apparent.

 

I remembered enough to make sure I get the best line value and not lose because of it. 

 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



No, the line was indeed +3.5.  But Dallas was up 14-0, so yes, in effect, you are up 17.5 to nothing.  And according to BigNiner, that's horrible value.

(He doesn't know what he's talking about.)


Yea, he is incorrect!  I would normally agree with him that betting a LIVE line very early in the game, in which you are losing considerable value from the original line... is a BAD MOVE!

But in this case, that LIVE line was off by a TD... pure and simple!  Dallas should have been AT LEAST a pick em at that point in the game... obviously, the books were OVERLY confident that Denver would come back and cover... 

Taking +3.5 at that game was good value, simply because the LIVE line was friggin idiotic!
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