thanks Locksmith... a question for you... when the public bets are coming heavy on one side, yet the line moves against that money (ie.. let's say heavy on Houston at -3, yet line drops to -1) what are the books trying to trick you into..all the play is going on Tenn or that they are looking for more Houston play even though all the money is already on Houston..? BOL today and thanks for your insights
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thanks Locksmith... a question for you... when the public bets are coming heavy on one side, yet the line moves against that money (ie.. let's say heavy on Houston at -3, yet line drops to -1) what are the books trying to trick you into..all the play is going on Tenn or that they are looking for more Houston play even though all the money is already on Houston..? BOL today and thanks for your insights
thanks Locksmith... a question for you... when the public bets are coming heavy on one side, yet the line moves against that money (ie.. let's say heavy on Houston at -3, yet line drops to -1) what are the books trying to trick you into..all the play is going on Tenn or that they are looking for more Houston play even though all the money is already on Houston..? BOL today and thanks for your insights
1. How do you know FOR SURE where all of the bets are coming in on? Do you book bets? I'd honestly like to hear your thoughts on that.
2. Let's say you are booking bets. And you have 100 Dummies bet their $100. So that's $10,000 on one team. All of the action is coming in on that side. And then a group comes in and puts one $25,000 bet on the other side. Which way would you move the line? Are they trying to "trick" you?
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Quote Originally Posted by nakadinhi:
thanks Locksmith... a question for you... when the public bets are coming heavy on one side, yet the line moves against that money (ie.. let's say heavy on Houston at -3, yet line drops to -1) what are the books trying to trick you into..all the play is going on Tenn or that they are looking for more Houston play even though all the money is already on Houston..? BOL today and thanks for your insights
1. How do you know FOR SURE where all of the bets are coming in on? Do you book bets? I'd honestly like to hear your thoughts on that.
2. Let's say you are booking bets. And you have 100 Dummies bet their $100. So that's $10,000 on one team. All of the action is coming in on that side. And then a group comes in and puts one $25,000 bet on the other side. Which way would you move the line? Are they trying to "trick" you?
In other words....any time I see what you would call "reverse line movement" or a "trap" for me that just means all of the small bets are coming in large amounts on one side, and the higher money bets are coming in on the other.
Again, there are some dummies out there that have their share of money, too. I went in with a partner and booked bets for a guy who owned a concrete company and put a $25,000 cap on him. Multi, multi millionaire. No sports background. Bet his $25,000 a game recreationally and couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. If he walked into a Vegas casino and unloaded a big bet, he could potentially move a line in a hurry.
You can't over-analyze this stuff you're going to drive yourself nuts.
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In other words....any time I see what you would call "reverse line movement" or a "trap" for me that just means all of the small bets are coming in large amounts on one side, and the higher money bets are coming in on the other.
Again, there are some dummies out there that have their share of money, too. I went in with a partner and booked bets for a guy who owned a concrete company and put a $25,000 cap on him. Multi, multi millionaire. No sports background. Bet his $25,000 a game recreationally and couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. If he walked into a Vegas casino and unloaded a big bet, he could potentially move a line in a hurry.
You can't over-analyze this stuff you're going to drive yourself nuts.
1. How do you know FOR SURE where all of the bets are coming in on? Do you book bets? I'd honestly like to hear your thoughts on that.
2. Let's say you are booking bets. And you have 100 Dummies bet their $100. So that's $10,000 on one team. All of the action is coming in on that side. And then a group comes in and puts one $25,000 bet on the other side. Which way would you move the line? Are they trying to "trick" you?
Very logical. Also I like how you explained yesterday in a thread how money Mayweather threw down a large bet and the line moved...and it wasn't necessarily the betting public. Thanks for your insight.
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Quote Originally Posted by LocksmithSports:
1. How do you know FOR SURE where all of the bets are coming in on? Do you book bets? I'd honestly like to hear your thoughts on that.
2. Let's say you are booking bets. And you have 100 Dummies bet their $100. So that's $10,000 on one team. All of the action is coming in on that side. And then a group comes in and puts one $25,000 bet on the other side. Which way would you move the line? Are they trying to "trick" you?
Very logical. Also I like how you explained yesterday in a thread how money Mayweather threw down a large bet and the line moved...and it wasn't necessarily the betting public. Thanks for your insight.
Lock, thanks yesterday on the answer to my question. I hav tried to explain how some big betters will on purpose try to move a line and jump bigger on the other side. What they play to move is just a cost of business. They will find "their out" that move the line and use that. Or sometimes just to flush out who is passing their plays. But I may be wrong.
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Lock, thanks yesterday on the answer to my question. I hav tried to explain how some big betters will on purpose try to move a line and jump bigger on the other side. What they play to move is just a cost of business. They will find "their out" that move the line and use that. Or sometimes just to flush out who is passing their plays. But I may be wrong.
1. How do you know FOR SURE where all of the bets are coming in on? Do you book bets? I'd honestly like to hear your thoughts on that.
2. Let's say you are booking bets. And you have 100 Dummies bet their $100. So that's $10,000 on one team. All of the action is coming in on that side. And then a group comes in and puts one $25,000 bet on the other side. Which way would you move the line? Are they trying to "trick" you?
Just from a site that indicates where the SUPPOSED money is coming on which can be manipulated I'm sure.. Thanks so much for your response and insight... trying to slowly get a grasp of this and your openness in sharing what you know is much appreciated..
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Quote Originally Posted by LocksmithSports:
1. How do you know FOR SURE where all of the bets are coming in on? Do you book bets? I'd honestly like to hear your thoughts on that.
2. Let's say you are booking bets. And you have 100 Dummies bet their $100. So that's $10,000 on one team. All of the action is coming in on that side. And then a group comes in and puts one $25,000 bet on the other side. Which way would you move the line? Are they trying to "trick" you?
Just from a site that indicates where the SUPPOSED money is coming on which can be manipulated I'm sure.. Thanks so much for your response and insight... trying to slowly get a grasp of this and your openness in sharing what you know is much appreciated..
Lock, thanks yesterday on the answer to my question. I hav tried to explain how some big betters will on purpose try to move a line and jump bigger on the other side. What they play to move is just a cost of business. They will find "their out" that move the line and use that. Or sometimes just to flush out who is passing their plays. But I may be wrong.
Agree. This was unmasked in the Billy Walters Dateline or 20/20 Special I believe and made more of the public aware on how that happens.
When the dust settles you just don't know which line move is the final one and which is the manipulation. You start chasing steam and your head will spin until you are so confused on what to bet, you start flipping coins.
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Quote Originally Posted by Area51:
Lock, thanks yesterday on the answer to my question. I hav tried to explain how some big betters will on purpose try to move a line and jump bigger on the other side. What they play to move is just a cost of business. They will find "their out" that move the line and use that. Or sometimes just to flush out who is passing their plays. But I may be wrong.
Agree. This was unmasked in the Billy Walters Dateline or 20/20 Special I believe and made more of the public aware on how that happens.
When the dust settles you just don't know which line move is the final one and which is the manipulation. You start chasing steam and your head will spin until you are so confused on what to bet, you start flipping coins.
Just from a site that indicates where the SUPPOSED money is coming on which can be manipulated I'm sure.. Thanks so much for your response and insight... trying to slowly get a grasp of this and your openness in sharing what you know is much appreciated..
Just curious.
So on these sites that claim to share where the money is coming in on:
1. Are they sportsbooks? If not, do they advertise for sportsbooks? You could see a potential conflict of interest here right?
2. If they're not sportsbooks, are they taking real money? Real money is different than "play money". For example, I may say the Rams are going to upset the Packers outright with play money, but am I going to put real money on that?
3. Is it automatic and "formula-driven", what if the formula or coding is broken?
4. What if that particular sample size isn't very big, say 30 people's bets are represented.
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Quote Originally Posted by nakadinhi:
Just from a site that indicates where the SUPPOSED money is coming on which can be manipulated I'm sure.. Thanks so much for your response and insight... trying to slowly get a grasp of this and your openness in sharing what you know is much appreciated..
Just curious.
So on these sites that claim to share where the money is coming in on:
1. Are they sportsbooks? If not, do they advertise for sportsbooks? You could see a potential conflict of interest here right?
2. If they're not sportsbooks, are they taking real money? Real money is different than "play money". For example, I may say the Rams are going to upset the Packers outright with play money, but am I going to put real money on that?
3. Is it automatic and "formula-driven", what if the formula or coding is broken?
4. What if that particular sample size isn't very big, say 30 people's bets are represented.
So on these sites that claim to share where the money is coming in on:
1. Are they sportsbooks? If not, do they advertise for sportsbooks? You could see a potential conflict of interest here right?
2. If they're not sportsbooks, are they taking real money? Real money is different than "play money". For example, I may say the Rams are going to upset the Packers outright with play money, but am I going to put real money on that?
3. Is it automatic and "formula-driven", what if the formula or coding is broken?
4. What if that particular sample size isn't very big, say 30 people's bets are represented.
Yes, they do advertise for sportsbooks as a way of earning commissions probably, so yes, I do see the conflict and how the manipulation can occur. As far as your other questions... way over my head Lock... much thanks again for taking the time to explain...
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Quote Originally Posted by LocksmithSports:
Just curious.
So on these sites that claim to share where the money is coming in on:
1. Are they sportsbooks? If not, do they advertise for sportsbooks? You could see a potential conflict of interest here right?
2. If they're not sportsbooks, are they taking real money? Real money is different than "play money". For example, I may say the Rams are going to upset the Packers outright with play money, but am I going to put real money on that?
3. Is it automatic and "formula-driven", what if the formula or coding is broken?
4. What if that particular sample size isn't very big, say 30 people's bets are represented.
Yes, they do advertise for sportsbooks as a way of earning commissions probably, so yes, I do see the conflict and how the manipulation can occur. As far as your other questions... way over my head Lock... much thanks again for taking the time to explain...
Chiefs strength of their secondary and pass rush will be nullified in this game as the Broncos impose their will on the ground vs. a poor Chief rush D with nothing to play for. It's a battle of wills when you run the ball and one team here is at home, runs it well, and wants it more. Clutch player at QB for the Broncos that has excelled in big game situations and big spots his whole life, while the other has floundered to mediocrity and a .500 career win %. Chiefs have scored 13 points or less in 7 of their past 8, and have not cracked 20 points in 8 straight games. This style game plays right into the Broncos hands, and the mile high thin air and running game will wear down a Chief team that was eliminated from playoff contention last week and is much better at Arrowhead than away from it.
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3 Dimes - Denver -1
Chiefs strength of their secondary and pass rush will be nullified in this game as the Broncos impose their will on the ground vs. a poor Chief rush D with nothing to play for. It's a battle of wills when you run the ball and one team here is at home, runs it well, and wants it more. Clutch player at QB for the Broncos that has excelled in big game situations and big spots his whole life, while the other has floundered to mediocrity and a .500 career win %. Chiefs have scored 13 points or less in 7 of their past 8, and have not cracked 20 points in 8 straight games. This style game plays right into the Broncos hands, and the mile high thin air and running game will wear down a Chief team that was eliminated from playoff contention last week and is much better at Arrowhead than away from it.
Been following your plays ..... Much respect tailed you on the jets. I am getting Denver at -3 do you think I should lay the extra juice and take the ML I really like Denver but do think it'll be a close game
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Been following your plays ..... Much respect tailed you on the jets. I am getting Denver at -3 do you think I should lay the extra juice and take the ML I really like Denver but do think it'll be a close game
Been following your plays ..... Much respect tailed you on the jets. I am getting Denver at -3 do you think I should lay the extra juice and take the ML I really like Denver but do think it'll be a close game
I have a ton of outs that I use like friends in Vegas that can place bets for me, offshore, locals. I typically get good lines when i bet my personal stuff - sometimes better than what Ive posted on here because a lot of people can't get the same.
In this case, 3 is the most key number in football betting, especially in NFL. If I were you at 3 it's still a good bet, but I'd cut it back personally to 2 dimes, instead of 3.
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Quote Originally Posted by FoCo:
Been following your plays ..... Much respect tailed you on the jets. I am getting Denver at -3 do you think I should lay the extra juice and take the ML I really like Denver but do think it'll be a close game
I have a ton of outs that I use like friends in Vegas that can place bets for me, offshore, locals. I typically get good lines when i bet my personal stuff - sometimes better than what Ive posted on here because a lot of people can't get the same.
In this case, 3 is the most key number in football betting, especially in NFL. If I were you at 3 it's still a good bet, but I'd cut it back personally to 2 dimes, instead of 3.
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BOL today and thanks for your insights 
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