Pretty dumb if you're betting big money. If you don't think KC is going to win, you shouldn't be betting on them at all.....let alone buying 1/2 point for 22c just so you can possibly push.....
Terrible odds and thinking. Better off taking KC -2.5 at favorable odds of you like KC. The odds of KC losing by 1 or 2 is pretty low.
I’m not a math guy, that’s why I am asking. How can one of the most successful gamblers in history advocate buying points when guys like you say it doesn’t make mathematical sense. Somebody has to be wrong here, and it’s hard for me to understand how a guy who made his living gambling can be wrong. 
But when you hear the wiseguys here tell it, it’s all about the math they say. You can’t argue with math. If you bet this way, you are going to lose in the long run, yada, yada. Well, how do you explain Billy Walter’s rationale for betting the game this way? That’s my question.
The thing to pay attention to is that he said he would play +3 at -132 and no more. Meaning that-133 is not a fair price for that number. He believes that 2.5 -110 and 3 -132 is the same thing. The same way that he describes betting a money line instead of the spread if the ML price is better. From what I understand most books will give you +3 at -135. To him -132 is better than +2.5 -110. Even though technically he’s saying it’s the same. I’m no expert. Far from it. There are many on covers that could shine a light on this subject much better than me. To me it seems that this is Billy’s way of comparing the spread number to the price and going with what gives him better value.
Btw, in the same article Billy said he won 57% of his bets this year in the NFL. How does a guy who is willing to pay -132 juice to move the line to +3 and hitting 57% of his bets turn a profit, mathematically speaking?!
My point is, it can’t be black and white. I.e., you either follow the math or you lose. There must be exceptions to the mathematical rules, and the great ones know when it makes sense to pay the juice.
Yes, I saw that as well, but that is a far more nuanced argument than I have seen on Covers by the “math experts” who say you should never buy lines up or down and pay extra juice.
@begginerboy
I would also take a guess that because Billy has been so successful at picking winners over his career that making a bet at -132 is not the same for him as for many of us. If you and I bet regularly at those odds we would lose our houses (although I’m sure that the majority of his bets would be at -110 or better). Billy Walters on the other hand has a handicapping system that is so detailed and perfected that he can probably be successful either way.
Buying a half point to +3 up to the additional .22 cents paid (I.E. the difference in -110 vs -132) represents MATHEMATICAL VALUE over +2.5.
Once the -132 threshold is crossed (-133 or higher) it no longer represents mathematical value to buy the half point, therefore you should play at +2.5.
The .5 point from 2.5 to 3 is worth a lot more than a .5 point to a dead or semi dead number.
The “3” is the key in commanding the additional.22 cents in value for a 1/2 point.
AS
im guessing because if there were other games to choose from this week he wouldn’t touch this game. Being who he is he must pick a side so he’s backing himself up saying he feels at -132 it’s worth the extra protection on this game he’s forced to pick a side on
Any word of sportsbook verifying his ticket or did you see his ticket?
He's telling you to buy but because he's betting big, he's going to let you move the line for him and he's taking SF at a better value than -2.
Or maybe he's dropping a mil on KC to move the line with his supporters and bet 20 mil on SF at closing. Gamblings and his money, they'll do anything for a come up.
Don't get play or what you see on the Internet must be true either. Dig deeper.
If I bet big, I'll post my ticket after the game. 
I watched the entire video interview of Billy. He stated he believes the line is wrong and KC should be -2 (2 point favorites). He likes them to win outright. I rather take KC +2, or the ML +110 then buying .5 @ -132
He gave in depth points on KC. Better QB, head coach, and kicker. Hard to make the argument he's headfaking KC and slamming SF. It's gambling. Neither team is going to lay down. It will be a tight game and unexpected things do happen. Billy likes KC and it is what it is. Place you're bets that you feel.comfortable with. I'm not buying any points. KC +2 and ML is locked in. GL everyone
it’s a general rule, because generally the % more it costs to buy points doesn’t equal the % it raises your chance of winning. It doesn’t mean you should “never buy points”, and I don’t think any real sharp would tell you to “never buy points” like you insinuated. But for a standalone game, especially the super bowl, a lot of basic gambling fundamentals go out the window because most people, including sharp bettors are placing action based on entertainment
Someone like I'm has extensive models to forecast his belief of the outcome.
The real question is do you really believe if all his models and data shows the game is so tight that he needs 1/2 point at -132, he'd be unloading?
I don't buy it, but we'll see. He's taking advantage of his clout and sending the lay bettor to panic and adjust to a more advantageous line for him.
Now to your other point and some on here. If your model says KC or SF wins by a touch down, what the hell do you care what the book says and/or react to their line?
Answer - most bettors are lazy first (no model) and undisciplined second (bet games with no margin).
Bill Walter's would tell you himself that he's not the greatest gambler of all-time. Not the smartest. Not the best capper. Not the highest win percentage, etc. He has partnered with smart people, and been successful, yes, but he isn't some guru who is beyond reproach. A huge part of his success has been based on sheer volume.
Established in 1995,
...EXACTLY!!!
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