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LV Super contest week 17

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Veteran
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Posted: #1
Now that it's over let's get one good week in.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
Amazingly - I am 9-1 in the mini-contest and there are only 3 10-0 entries still around.  

https://www.westgatedestinations.com/nevada/las-vegas/westgate-las-vegas-hotel-casino/casino/supercontest-mini-standings

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #3
This is the best thread on covers ... so thanks to everyone, and Rudy, for making this one work.

I learned a lot this year with my system and over the past 35 games, the system picks are at 60% (21-14). My SuperContest record is as good (38-40-2) as I hemmed and hawed most of the early and middle part of the season until I finally committed to the system which works. Here is what the system says this week, and these are also my picks in the contest:

Jaguars +6
Chiefs -6.5
Seahawks +6.5
Colts -2.5
Redskins +3.5

Thoughts on these picks?

Thanks everyone and let's finish strong ... and  Vanzack, I am cheering on you to win the mini-contest after such a tough year for you! Follow these picks above and you just might do it :-) LOL




 
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Amazingly - I am 9-1 in the mini-contest and there are only 3 10-0 entries still around.  

https://www.westgatedestinations.com/nevada/las-vegas/westgate-las-vegas-hotel-casino/casino/supercontest-mini-standings


Take it Van
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:

This is the best thread on covers ... so thanks to everyone, and Rudy, for making this one work.

I learned a lot this year with my system and over the past 35 games, the system picks are at 60% (21-14). My SuperContest record is as good (38-40-2) as I hemmed and hawed most of the early and middle part of the season until I finally committed to the system which works. Here is what the system says this week, and these are also my picks in the contest:

Jaguars +6
Chiefs -6.5
Seahawks +6.5
Colts -2.5
Redskins +3.5

Thoughts on these picks?

Thanks everyone and let's finish strong ... and  Vanzack, I am cheering on you to win the mini-contest after such a tough year for you! Follow these picks above and you just might do it :-) LOL




 

Here is my dream. We have about 10-12 Super contest players here. My partner and I agreed to go separate ways and have 2-3 enteries next year. It would be cool if all of us on covers meet up in Vegas to sign up at the same time and hang out. So be it a covers weekend at the west gate. Any thoughts, anybody in???
 
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Posted: #6
i've had behind awful luck this year in this god forsaken contest. at least 8 bad beats to 0 good beats. people say this stuff is supposed to even out. it didn't for me. i counted.  

1) chicago vs minnesota - bears miss game winning fg, vikings make game winning fg 

2) seattle @ cincinnati - seahawks blow 24-7 4th quarter lead, FISHY pi call gets bengals a game winning fg, +3 pushes 

3) st louis @ baltimore - keenum gets concussed in fg range, fumbles on next play. +2 supposed to win but loses 

4) pats @ giants - edelman gets injured, i will go to my grave believing they would have covered this game with him 

5) oakland @ tennessee - fishy pi call on 4th and 20 gets oakland a winning td. i will swear on my life it was only because too many people bet on the titans 

6) cincinnati vs pitt - dalton AND eifert get knocked out in the 1st quarter. i still think bengals would have won with them 

7) giants vs jets - giants don't kick fg, blow 10 pt 4th quarter lead, +2.5 loses in ot by 0.5 on a fg 

8) carolina vs ny giants - let's not talk about this 

9) denver vs pittsburgh - let's also not talk about this 

that's 0-9 in coinflip games with not one stinking game going my way 

"The devil doesn't come dressed in a red cape & pointy horns. He comes as everything you've ever wished for."

one year this will change.....hopefully 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 55
Posted: #7
47-32-1

5-0 probably cashes. Doubt 4-1 will. Rolling with

Bills
Pats
Packers
49ers
Cards

Rudy like your signup idea next year. I usually always go Labor Day weekend but can adjust if necessary.

GL to all
 
Legend
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Da_Contrarian:

47-32-1

5-0 probably cashes. Doubt 4-1 will. Rolling with

Bills
Pats
Packers
49ers
Cards

Rudy like your signup idea next year. I usually always go Labor Day weekend but can adjust if necessary.

GL to all

GL - will be pulling for you.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #9
Jets
texans
Chiefs
Bears
Vikins.

That's it to close the year.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by totallypsycho:

i've had behind awful luck this year in this god forsaken contest. at least 8 bad beats to 0 good beats. people say this stuff is supposed to even out. it didn't for me. i counted.  

1) chicago vs minnesota - bears miss game winning fg, vikings make game winning fg 

2) seattle @ cincinnati - seahawks blow 24-7 4th quarter lead, FISHY pi call gets bengals a game winning fg, +3 pushes 

3) st louis @ baltimore - keenum gets concussed in fg range, fumbles on next play. +2 supposed to win but loses 

4) pats @ giants - edelman gets injured, i will go to my grave believing they would have covered this game with him 

5) oakland @ tennessee - fishy pi call on 4th and 20 gets oakland a winning td. i will swear on my life it was only because too many people bet on the titans 

6) cincinnati vs pitt - dalton AND eifert get knocked out in the 1st quarter. i still think bengals would have won with them 

7) giants vs jets - giants don't kick fg, blow 10 pt 4th quarter lead, +2.5 loses in ot by 0.5 on a fg 

8) carolina vs ny giants - let's not talk about this 

9) denver vs pittsburgh - let's also not talk about this 

that's 0-9 in coinflip games with not one stinking game going my way 

"The devil doesn't come dressed in a red cape & pointy horns. He comes as everything you've ever wished for."

one year this will change.....hopefully 

What is your record in the contest totallypsycho? 
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Amazingly - I am 9-1 in the mini-contest and there are only 3 10-0 entries still around.  

https://www.westgatedestinations.com/nevada/las-vegas/westgate-las-vegas-hotel-casino/casino/supercontest-mini-standings


I will take a break from losing about my 12th consecutive bowl game to post my plays...

I looked at all of the picks for the other people at the top of the MINI contest - and if I go 5-0 this week - I will win the mini-contest for sure because everyone ahead of me has at least one opposite game.

9.  Falcons -4
15.  Chiefs -6.5
17.  Colts -2.5
21.  Bears -1
30.  49ers +3.5

GL all - especially to those within striking distance of cashing for the full contest.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1270
Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


I will take a break from losing about my 12th consecutive bowl game to post my plays...

I looked at all of the picks for the other people at the top of the MINI contest - and if I go 5-0 this week - I will win the mini-contest for sure because everyone ahead of me has at least one opposite game.

9.  Falcons -4
15.  Chiefs -6.5
17.  Colts -2.5
21.  Bears -1
30.  49ers +3.5

GL all - especially to those within striking distance of cashing for the full contest. 


With you on the Chiefs and Colts, but not sure about the others. I think u  might be ok with the niners pick, but my confidence in the Falcons and Bears rapidly declines. Good luck!!
 
Veteran
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


I will take a break from losing about my 12th consecutive bowl game to post my plays...

I looked at all of the picks for the other people at the top of the MINI contest - and if I go 5-0 this week - I will win the mini-contest for sure because everyone ahead of me has at least one opposite game.

9.  Falcons -4
15.  Chiefs -6.5
17.  Colts -2.5
21.  Bears -1
30.  49ers +3.5

GL all - especially to those within striking distance of cashing for the full contest.



SF  

GL van
 
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Posts: 3178
Posted: #14

40-39-1 for the year,after 2-3 last week.This weeks games

GB-3

Wash+3.5

Chi-1

Buff+3

Sea+6.5

Good luck to everyone,its really been fun following this thread this year.

 
Veteran
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Posted: #15
Well, I went 3-2 and just missed 4-1 when the Chiefs' lead fell to 6 late in the game. While my supercontest record was nothing special in 2015  (41-42-2), I gained confidence in my system this year, showing a record of 24-16 over the past 40 games. That is a great start but I need a couple more years of public postings of some 150 more games before anyone gets too excited or Vegas starts getting nervous :-)

Next year, all my picks in the SuperContest will be pure system picks. Period!  If you have a Tom Brady on your roster, why start a Ryan Tannehill?  I learned this year not to tug on Superman's cape. It's system from here on out!

See you next season! Enjoy the playoffs and Super Bowl!!
 
Prospect
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Posts: 165
Posted: #16
This was definitely a bizarre season as a lot of the leaders appeared to wash out at the end.

A lot of the guys that finished at the top last year didn't even break .500 this year.

Unfortunately for me, I got reamed by a QB off the street but was still able to crack the top 20 but that loss cost a LOT of $$$$$$. Week 17 huh?

Well, on to next year. Congrats and good luck to all.
 
Captain
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Posts: 6730
Posted: #17
I couldn't cap the NFL for garbage this year and it showed in my picks. Hoping the playoffs will be a little different.

I will be back next year though, fawkers!
 
Veteran
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Posted: #18
Was 2015 considered a tougher year to cap than past seasons? I guess I can compare top spot in contest to previous years and #30 to previous years to get my answer. I was 44 points (44-41) in 2014, and 42 points (41-42-2) in 2015, so that would support this theory. What do others think?????
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:

Was 2015 considered a tougher year to cap than past seasons? I guess I can compare top spot in contest to previous years and #30 to previous years to get my answer. I was 44 points (44-41) in 2014, and 42 points (41-42-2) in 2015, so that would support this theory. What do others think?????

I don't think it was any more difficult but I think it proves that it is difficult for some people to adjust their style of handicapping or in finance terms, some tried to "fight the tape" based on historical data.

For example, teams like Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Carolina (all division winners) were all close to being or hit over 70% this year ATS.  Some handicappers would believe there would be a regression to the mean or try to bet against a trend and lose that way. Same applies inversely with teams like Tennessee, Cleveland, and Miami that were awful ATS.


 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by frugal:


I don't think it was any more difficult but I think it proves that it is difficult for some people to adjust their style of handicapping or in finance terms, some tried to "fight the tape" based on historical data.

For example, teams like Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Carolina (all division winners) were all close to being or hit over 70% this year ATS.  Some handicappers would believe there would be a regression to the mean or try to bet against a trend and lose that way. Same applies inversely with teams like Tennessee, Cleveland, and Miami that were awful ATS.



I would agree that 2015 was,no more dificult than 2014 after reviewing both year's results. Except for Number one last year which was a huge outlier (and crashed to earth under .500 this year) the winning rates are almost identical!  To be in the money in this contest you need to hit on at least 62% and to win or have a chance at winning you need to be around 70%. PERIOD. I'm not really clear what you are saying happened in people fighting the tape this year. Are you saying that people failed to account for the fact athat some teams had prior great records ATS and were thus doomed to crash, or are you saying that they accounted for this factor too much?
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by rudy22:


Here is my dream. We have about 10-12 Super contest players here. My partner and I agreed to go separate ways and have 2-3 enteries next year. It would be cool if all of us on covers meet up in Vegas to sign up at the same time and hang out. So be it a covers weekend at the west gate. Any thoughts, anybody in???

I usually always go register the second or third week in July. Just let me know
 
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1650
Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


I will take a break from losing about my 12th consecutive bowl game to post my plays...

I looked at all of the picks for the other people at the top of the MINI contest - and if I go 5-0 this week - I will win the mini-contest for sure because everyone ahead of me has at least one opposite game.

9.  Falcons -4
15.  Chiefs -6.5
17.  Colts -2.5
21.  Bears -1
30.  49ers +3.5

GL all - especially to those within striking distance of cashing for the full contest.


You are a class act van and hope one day our paths will cross. 
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