Mac's Week 17 Plays YTD: 91-67-5

Green Bay -4

The line is a complete overreaction. Even if the Packers do rest their starters they have very capable backups. Aaron Rogers has been in the system for about 3 years now and knows the playbook inside out. Also he was very impressive when he had to sub for Farve in the Dallas game when he got injured. The Pack are also pretty deep at RB, WR and TE and I think the backups will be able to handle this soft Lions defense. The Lions offense has dried up as the season has gone on especially with the loss of Roy Williams and the pathetic play of the offensive line. I expect most of the Packers defense to play at least a half and they should be able to have their way with this pathetic line, especially Aaron Kampman who dominated in the first meeting between these two.

I also think this line is too low because of the beating the Packers took last week and the Lions win. The odds of that happening again this week and pretty darn small. The Packers coach is a smart dude and he does not want to go into the playoffs on a losing note, he is going to want to build a lot of confidence especially with such a young team with many players making their first trip to the postseason. I think the Lions are done, they got their win last week to shut everyone up and I think they will be ready to go home for the offseason even before this game begins, their minds will be on the bus. Quite frankly I think their defense has had their minds on the offseason for a few weeks. They Lions have given up an average of 424 yards a game in their last 5 games, jesus they gave up over 400 yards to the frikkin Cheifs last week on their home turf!!

Indianapolis +7 (-120)

I bought the hook on this one earlier when it was +6.5 . Just like Green Bay I think this is another overreaction to the backups playing. Even before the backups play I think Peyton and the first team offense will get in a few series especially if the grumblings are true that Marvin Harrison may play as the Colts would like to get him in some game action before the postseason starts. Even when the first team offense sits down I think the Colts are in capable hands with Jim Sorgi. Hahaha laugh all you want but the guy is all you want in a backup. He has played well the last few times he's played and he knows the offense inside out as he has been with the team for many years. The backups RB's for the Colts are also capable backs. Clifton Dawson has been getting more reps in practice and scored a TD last week and we all saw earlier in the year what Kenton Keith can do.

On the defensive side the Colts are pretty deep as well. Let's not forget a lot of Indy's defensive starters have been banged up and have sat out the last 2 games. Rahim Brock, Robert Mathis and Antoine Bethea haven't played for 2 weeks and the backups have played darn well holding the Raiders to just 14 points and last week they held the Texans offense (which is better than the Titans' offense) to just 7 points heading into the 4^th quarter. And quite honestly guys I would take Jim Sorgi over Vince Young and even moreso when you consider Home/Away. Vince Young has been terrible this year and I don't see how he is going to beat the Colts in Indy by over 7 points. The Titans have only beat 2 teams by over 7 points all year on the road and they were the Chiefs (yuck) and the Saints (back in Week 3 when the Saints offense was extinct). I also think these Colts, backups or not, would love nothing more than to deny a division rival a postseason berth. It also doesn't hurt that Tony Dungy is good friends with browns coach Romeo Crennel and he might like to give his good buddy a shot at the playoffs. There are two overlooked injuries this week for the Titans also. Rookie safety Micheal Griffin who has played pretty well this seasn is likely out and starting Center Kevin Mawae and the veteran leader of that Titans offense isn't expected to play. He didn't play last week either and Vince Young had trouble with the exchange from the backup as he fumbled 3 times.

Tampa Bay +3

Yet again another overreaction to backups playing. Jeff Garcia probably won't play at all but backup QB Luke McCown knows the offense very well and he was steallar earlier in the year filling in for Garcia when he was injured and just last week when Garcia was pulled he almost lead the Bucs back to tie the game only if the reciever had come down with his feet in bounds on the 2 point conversion attempt. Even if Earnest Graham sits for the Bucs there really isn't much dropoff with 2^nd and 3^rd string guys Micheal Pittman and Micheal Bennett who bring similar styles as Graham. I'm not into the Panthers QB's either. Matt Moore has not played well with a 59 QB rating and 1 TD pass in 9 games and rookie quarterbacks always struggle against the Tampa 2 Cover D. Same story with the backup defenders for Tampa Bay, there really isn't too much of a dropoff, most of the starters are veteran guys and the backups are younger guys who might actually bring a little more energy and spark. Tampa Bay is 6-1 at home this year and their only loss was by 1 point to Jacksonville. Carolina is no Jacksonville.

San Diego -8

Yep lotta road chalk but honestly I think this one will be over by halftime. Philip Rivers probably won't even have to throw the ball (thank god), because the Chargers have 3 runningbacks that could be starters on most teams in the league (LT, Turner and Sproles) and an offensive line that in recent weeks has played like they did last year, just shoving guys around and being real physically dominating. Those backs + this offensive line + an Oakland run defense that gives up a fucking absurd 4.9 YPC on the season and 5.2 YPC over the last 3 games = big trouble. I think San Diego will run run run all day long and this game will be short and sweet for the Chargers.

I should also mention that San Diego has won 8 straight over Oakland and are currently on a 5 game winning streak overall. Actually the main reason they have won 4 in a row is because their defense is fully healthy and is playing like they did last year. During the 5 game win streak they have only given up 11.6 PPG. I'd really be shocked if the Oakland offense managed more than 10 points in this one. First of all they are playing this great defense, Justin Fargas is out and the rookie JaMarcus Russell is starting. This same Oakland crew started last week and except for 8 points scored in garbage time they are raped. Russell was just god awful he finished 7-23 for 83 yards, 1TD and 3 INT, and that TD came in garbage time and he should easily have been picked 5 times at least. The Jags defenders dropped 2 easy picks that were right in their hands. I think he actually threw it to the defense more than his own guys. Bottomline is I think the Chargers roll in a quick, low scoring game. Which is why I like the Under in this one as well.

Denver +3

I don't really know why Minnesota is laying road chalk in this one. Sure they have something to play for but they aren't really that good. A lot of it has to do with Adrian Peterson who just hasn't looked the same since his injury and he has been incredibly bad in his last 3 games when opposing teams have stacked the box and forced Tavaris Jackson to try to beat them which he hasn't. This kid is not going to beat this Denver secondary which is has 2 of the best corners in the league and with Jackson usually throwing a few wild jump balls every game I'd expect a few to be picked off in this one by the Broncos. The bad Denver rush defense has also improved of late giving up just 3.7 YPC to opposing backs in their last 3 games which is pretty good. Denver was embarrassed last week and the Chargers were making fun of Jay Cutler, the Broncos were fired up this week talking about that. Expect them to come out and play spoiler and close the season strong.

San Diego/Oakland UNDER 42.5

See my San Diego writeup above. Bottomline is I'd be shocked if the Oakland offense managed over 10 points and I think San Diego will run run run which will run run run the time off the clock.

Cincinnati/Miami UNDER 46.5

Another benefit of locking lines up early as this one is now down to 45. I think this total is high because of the perceived Cincinnati good offense + bad defense = high scoring games philosophy. I've been saying for weeks that this has changed with the Bengals and it's mainly due to the improved play of the defense. Ever since the loss in Buffalo the Bengals defense has played pretty well and if you exclude the Arizona game where Arizona got 2 defensive touchdowns (not the defense's fault) the Bengals are 4-2 and they have given up 7, 6, 24, 10, 20 and 14 points in those games. That's an average of just 13.5 per game which is damn good. The Cincy offense has also really slowed down and I think a lot of it is because they don't have to put up 40 to win anymore because of the improved play of the defense, they are now more of a ball control offense and are running it a lot more. Miami's offense has struggled all season and offensively they probably won't put up too many points. The Miami defense has played well as of late as well holding Baltimore to just 16 and they played well against the high powered Pats in new England last week, Brady got pretty frustrated in the 2^nd half as the Pats were shutout.

Kansas City/NY Jets OVER 34

I'm not really sure why this total is so low, the weather is expected to be good and we have 2 bad defenses. It's probably because of some of the weak play we have seen from these 2 offenses this season but it's usually the play of the defense that dictates totals. And in this matchup we have 2 weak defenses and more importantly 2 defenses that are really bad against the run and that's important because both of these offenses love to run the ball. Look for a lot of rushing yards in this one and this game should go over the total. Remember 34 points is not very many at all and low totals usually go over more than half the time and when you factor in variables such as defensive and special teams plays this game should go over.

As Always BOL To Everyone and Their Plays this week!!