Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 57), Jan. 17 at 3:05 p.m. ET
I'd like to offer my sincere condolences to the Browns' defense. It ranks No. 25 in DVOA pass defense despite playing the easiest slate of opposing offenses, and Cleveland now faces the Chiefs.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 21-10 against the spread with an extra week to prepare, and the league's second-ranked offense by DVOA is rested. The home side of the scoreboard will get lit up like a Christmas tree on Saturday.
The Browns probably won't be able to run the ball and take their sweet time as 10-point underdogs, but they'll experience success early. Running back Nick Chubb is at or near the top of most advanced metrics, and only the Patriots were worse against the rush than K.C. this season.
Don't overthink this one.
Pick: Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 52), Jan. 17 at 6:40 p.m.
This is a patented Tom Brady game. His Buccaneers have been outscored 72-26 against the Saints in two regular-season matchups this campaign, but somehow Brady and his red-hot offense will produce a masterpiece here.
After all, this unit is trending way up.
Tampa Bay is currently No. 3 in DVOA offense, behind only the Chiefs and Packers. The Bucs have cashed four straight team total overs, averaging 38.3 points per game over that stretch. That number is likely to come down against New Orleans' third-ranked scoring defense, but this total could still be a tick too low.
Outside of a few questionable players, the Saints are finally healthy on offense. They benefitted from a nice tuneup against a formidable opponent last weekend in the Bears, who rank No. 8 in DVOA defense. New Orleans still put up nearly 400 yards of offense, and the team didn't need that much to earn a 21-9 victory.
Two legendary quarterbacks in a dome, and with plenty of offensive firepower to quickly turn this into an arcade game? Let's finish the weekend off with a doozy.
Pick: Over
either way as well mah man 
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