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The AFC Championship Game could be an all-timer if Patrick Mahomes is healthy.
The reigning Super Bowl MVP's status for Sunday's clash against the Buffalo Bills is still uncertain after he suffered a concussion last weekend. If he can't play, veteran quarterback Chad Henne would start for the Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 53).
Let's dive into Sunday's matchup and see where we can find value.
Trends and results
The public continues to look foolish when fading the Bills.
Buffalo beat the Ravens and covered as 2.5-point chalk in the divisional round, improving to 9-1 both straight up and against the spread over the team's last 10 games. The Bills promptly go from a home favorite to a road 'dog this Sunday, but head coach Sean McDermott hasn't been fazed in that spot, with his club covering in each of its last four contests when getting points, and four straight away from home.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, failed to cover last Sunday against Cleveland, marking the team's seventh ATS loss over its last eight games as a favorite. Kansas City has also been held to 22 points or fewer in three straight contests.
These two squads can score fast, as both offenses rank among the top five in DVOA. But some totals this postseason haven't come close to hitting the over. In fact, playoff games featuring totals of 50 or higher are on a 19-9 run to the under after all three cashed in the divisional round.
X-factor:
Josh Allen
All the talk is centered around Mahomes and Henne, but Allen is the real X-factor here.
The Chiefs put on a ball-control clinic during the regular-season meeting between these two teams, holding on for roughly 38 minutes while running 22 more plays, and outgaining the Bills by a whopping 260 yards.
Allen was given only nine drives to work with in the 22-17 loss. He finished the outing just 14-of-27 passing for 122 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, and 42 yards on the ground.
His job Sunday is to make every drive count.
The Bills rely heavily on Allen. He's first on the team in rushing touchdowns, and Buffalo ranks No. 12 in pass-play frequency despite ranking No. 5 in scoring margin. The coaching staff prefers to put the ball in the passer's hands, which was evident when Buffalo called just nine rushing attempts for players not named Allen last weekend.
To defeat Kansas City in its own building, Allen needs to be a one-man wrecking crew.
* Buffalo 
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