MNF, Indianapolis Colts @ NY Jets
MetLife Stadium at 8:30 pm ET
(Colts -1.5, 48.5)
Here we have the slightly favored Indianapolis Colts on the road facing the NY Jets. The good news for the Colts is that their QB, Andrew Luck has cleared concussion protocol and will play. It looks like they will still be missing a couple of pieces on the defensive side though with safety Clayton Geathers, linebacker Robert Mathis and cornerback Patrick Robinson all out in their secondary. For the Jets, they'll be without their defensive tackle Steve McLendon and safety Calvin Pryor.
Now lets break down a few stats to start things off. On the offensive side of the ball, the Colts average 352 ypg and the Jets 335. Broken down that's 257 yards passing and 95 rushing for the Colts and 224 passing with 111 yards rushing for the Jets. The Colts convert about 43% of their 3rd downs and the Jets around 39% of theirs. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts allow 395 total yards per game compared the Jets who allow about 349. Indy gives up 279 through the air and 116 on the ground while the Jets allow 263 yards passing and 86 yards on the ground. The Colts average scoring around 25 points per game while letting opponents score around 27 points. The Jets average scoring about 18 points per game while allowing their opponents to score 24. Luck has a 19 to 8 TD to INT ratio while Fitzpatrick has a 10 to 13 TD to INT ratio.
Now that the numbers are out of the way, lets look into a few other things. I believe their will be a strong motivation factor for the Colts to win this game for starters. They know if they lose to the Jets then their playoff hopes are all but lost. Yes, they sit in third place in the AFC South, but Indy's schedule isn't getting any easier after this game with 3 of their remaining 5 games on the road. I fully expect the Colts offensive line to step up here to protect their leader. They know they will need him for the rest of the season. When Andrew gets the protection he needs with the time he needs to make throws, his QB rating is 100.1 compared to a rating of only 88.3 when he doesn't. 100.1 equals wins. 88.3 equals losses. Easy math right? If Luck gets that protection here, he'll tear up the Jets defense! More good news for the Colts is that the Jets defense hasn't been all that great against the pass this year and they are tied for 2nd lowest in sack totals and rank right near the bottom in QB hurries. The Jets have failed to force a turnover in their past 3 games plus they have allowed a 64.1 completion percentage and over 3,000 passing yards on the year so far.
For the Jets you can expect this and the Colts probably figure on the same....with the turnover struggles of Fitzpatrick this season they found a way to minimize that problem last week against New England. They used a safe approach with a lot of dumpoffs and short passes combined with heavy running doses of Forte and Powell. Since Indy ranks towards the bottom against the run, expect to see the same type gameplan this week with possibly more touches for the Jets running back duo. I look to see about 40 carries out of those two and the Colts know this as well. So I think they'll be prepared as they can be for this. No surprises here.
The Jets are only 3-8 on the season so far and 4-6-1 ATS. The Colts are 5-6 on the season and are 5-5-1 ATS. Yes they took a beatdown last game against the Steelers but that was without their field general, Luck. That loss helped to keep the point spread number here down about a point or so IMO. And yes, the Jets hung tough with the Patriots last outing even holding a slight lead in the 4th quarter of that game. I understand that. Also another reason why the spread is lower than I feel it should be. Top that with the Jets winning the last 3 head-to-head matchups between the two. Yet another reason I think the number to cover isn't even higher. I like the Colts with their incentive to win and easily cover the low number here on the road breaking their 3 game losing streak. The Jets simply won't have much motivation and not much to play for. Don't expect them to be on their "A" game. Indy is a game out of 1st place in their division. The Texans have a half game lead over the Titans who are idle this week. So a Houston loss to Green Bay and a Colts win in the Meadowlands would create a 3 way tie atop the division. The Colts play Houston next week and own the tie-breaker over Tennessee. Just lots to play for! I'm thinking a 30-23 type score.
If you're a trends type person then I'll throw a few of those out there for you. The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after an ATS loss. The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after conceding more than 250 passing yards in their previous game and are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record. We know that the Colts aren't going to try and rush the ball all game as that is their weakest link and somewhat of the Jets strongest points. Look to Luck to take to the air for the most part of this contest which is their strongest point and the Jets weakest. So, the Colts are my recommended play and who I'll be laying a small wager on. BOL!
Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (1 unit)
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