San Francisco at Arizona
The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals have two of the worst records in the league. By playing in the NFL's worst division, however, they're each still in the thick of the playoff race. Many picked San Francisco (3-7) to win the West prior to the start of this season after the Cardinals (3-7) won the division each of the previous two years, but neither is looking much like a playoff contender. The 49ers, who haven't been to the playoffs since 2002, opened with five consecutive losses and are coming off last Sunday's 21-0 defeat to Tampa Bay. San Francisco managed a season-low 189 yards and 11 first downs - two via penalties - in getting shut out at home for the first time since 1977. Arizona also didn't play well in last Sunday's 31-13 loss to Kansas City, its fifth consecutive defeat. The Cardinals got their only touchdown, a 3-yard catch by Larry Fitzgerald, on the final play of the game. Despite all of San Francisco and Arizona's problems, they are just two games back of first-place Seattle in the West. Troy Smith will be making his fourth straight start at quarterback for San Francisco despite coming off a shaky performance against the Buccaneers. Smith, who is replacing a healthy Alex Smith, was sacked six times and completed 16 of 31 passes for 148 yards with an interception. He threw for 552 yards on 29 of 47 passing with two touchdowns in his first two starts. Smith also didn't get much help from a virtually non-existent ground game. Frank Gore finished with a season-low 23 yards on 12 attempts after averaging 114.0 yards rushing in his previous four games. Gore lined up against a Tampa Bay defense which was ranked 31st against the run and will be facing an Arizona run defense that is 28th in the league at 135.1 yards allowed per game. Gore has had success against the Cardinals, averaging 101.6 rushing yards with six total TDs in his last five matchups.
Arizona is 0-5 since its bye, giving up 33 ppg in last four games; they lost last two home games, have 21 penalties in last two games and lost field position battle in last three games, by 17-13-5 yards. 49ers are 0-4 in true road games (won at neutral London site), losing by 25-21-2-3 points- they’re 1-6 when they score less than 23 points. Arizona has only four offensive TDs on 34 drives in last three games, during which opponents started eight drives in Cardinal territory, while Arizona started only one on enemy grounds. Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Niners converted just 3-23 on 3rd down in last two games; they’re 4-3 in last seven visits here. Eight of last nine Cardinal games went over total. San Francisco is 0-4 S/U on the road this season but Arizona has been outscored by 104 points this year. Arizona is near league worst in every team yardage category but turnovers and special teams play has kept this team in a few games. Arizona has been plagued by quarterback woes and a paucity of offense as well during its disappointing run. Triggermen Derek Anderson and Max Hall have presided over a unit that's 31st in the NFL in total yards and third-down conversion percentage, and third from the bottom in rushing yards. There are problems on the other side of the ball as well, as the Cardinals have permitted a league-worst 29.2 points per game and are 29th overall in total defense. Arizona was gashed for 159 rushing yards in last Sunday's 31-13 loss at Kansas City, the club's fifth straight defeat following a 3-2 start.
While the quarterback situation has received the most attention, the real key to San Francisco's success is how running back Frank Gore (801 rushing yards, 46 receptions, 5 total TD) produces behind the troublesome offensive line. The Niners are 3-2 when Gore rushes for 87 yards or more this season and 0-5 when he fails to reach that mark, like the valuable sixth-year pro did in being held to a paltry 23 yards on 12 carries by Tampa Bay last week. Troy Smith (700 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) actually led the team with 45 rushing yards on five scrambles against the Bucs and has some passing skills as well, as evidenced by the career-best 356 yards he put up in the Week 10 win over the Rams. The athletic signal-caller has some quality options in which to work with, as Gore is among the game's premier receiving backs, tight end and 2009 Pro Bowl honoree Vernon Davis (38 receptions, 4 TD) is a matchup nightmare for enemy safeties with his uncanny size/speed combination, and young wideout Michael Crabtree (36 receptions, 4 TD) possesses big-time talent that belies his somewhat ordinary numbers. The 49ers are just 25th in the league in total offense (313.7 ypg) and have converted a below-average 32.6 percent of third- down tries (28th overall). To say an Arizona defense that returned three Pro Bowlers from last season in lineman Darnell Dockett (33 tackles, 2 sacks), cornerback Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie (33 tackles, 2 INT, 10 PD) and strong safety Adrian Wilson (47 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) hasn't met expectations is an understatement. In spite of that cast of proven talent, which also includes two more accomplished vets in outside linebacker Joey Porter (39 tackles, 5 sacks) and free safety Kerry Rhodes (59 tackles, 2 INT, 7 PD), the Cardinals have yielded a lackluster 396.8 yards per game, are 28th in the NFL versus the run (135.1 ypg) and 27th against the pass (261.7 ypg). One aspect Arizona has done well in is forcing turnovers, with the team recording 26 takeaways (3rd overall) and scoring a league-best six defensive touchdowns thus far. Porter has been the Cardinals' most effective pass rusher, while Wilson and the inside linebacker pairing of Paris Lenon (74 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) and Gerald Hayes (20 tackles) the main cogs of a run-stopping group that was unable to contain the Chiefs' outstanding backfield tandem of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones a week ago.
Arizona has had an overall subpar showing on offense for the year, but the team has been able to move the ball some through the air in recent weeks. Anderson (1776 passing yards, 7 TD, 8 INT) backed up a season-best 322 passing yards in a Week 10 loss to Seattle by throwing for 295 yards and a touchdown without an interception against Kansas City last Sunday, while star wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (55 receptions, 691 yards, 4 TD) has been far more a factor since running mate Steve Breaston (34 receptions, 548 yards, 1 TD) returned from an in-season knee procedure in late October. The dangerous duo combined for 182 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches against the Chiefs, with rookie Andre Roberts (12 receptions, 1 TD) adding personal highs of six grabs and 52 receiving yards as the No. 3 receiver. Making headway on the ground has been more of a sore spot for the Cardinals, who are averaging just 85.3 rushing yards per game and have attempted the fewest running plays in the league. The ball-carrying combo of Tim Hightower (438 rushing yards, 3 TD, 14 receptions) and Beanie Wells (270 rushing yards, 2 TD) did team up for a respectable 101 yards on 20 tries last week, with the talented Wells finally looking healthy after missing some time earlier in the year with a sore knee. The Cardinals' strong cast of receivers should be able to get some open looks against a San Francisco stop unit that ranks just 26th overall in pass efficiency defense and has allowed enemy quarterbacks to complete around two- thirds of their throws. To help cornerbacks Shawntae Spencer (23 receptions, 3 INT, 6 PD) and Nate Clements (54 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) combat the formidable Fitzgerald/Breaston twosome, players such as sturdy end Justin Smith (45 tackles, 5 sacks) and outside linebacker Parys Haralson (26 tackles, 4 sacks) will need to create consistent pressure on Anderson, who's been sacked 22 times in his seven starts this season. All-Pro inside linebacker Patrick Willis (91 tackles, 4 sacks) can assist in that area as well, as the always- active playmaker showed by registering a pair of sacks on top of a 13-tackle output against Tampa Bay last week. Willis, fellow linebacker Takeo Spikes (62 tackles, 1 INT) and nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin (27 tackles) form a stout interior core that's helped the 49ers hold opponents to 3.7 yards per rush attempt for the season.
The Arizona Cardinals are a bad football team that has lost 5 in a row s/u and lost their last 2 games by 18 points each to KC and Seattle. While the Niners aren't having the season they wanted, they play competitive and have a good talent base with playmakers at skill positions. You still have to think that the 49ers are the better team and San Francisco swept the Cardinals last season when Arizona still had Kurt Warner as their quarterback. This season the Cardinals do not have a quarterback and they have allowed 74 points in their last two home games.
San Francisco 49ers -1
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