MNF Sports Equinox Edition - Lions / Raiders....

NFL Season Record +18.0 units

Lions -7 (3 units)

All 5 major sports leagues in the US have action tonight.  I think it is the only day of the year this year that this will happen.  So why spend your hard earned money on this MNF matchup?

The Lions have injuries.  Important injuries.  Injuries in the secondary, to two of the five OLs, and St Brown has an illness.  They are also coming off a shellacking at the hands of the Ravens last week where they looked horrible.

The public is all over the Lions here.  Looks like classic good team vs bad team – and the public loves the Lions.

But the line reaching -7 at a cheap number (even money at the time of writing this) has sucked me in. 

I cannot ignore the stats, and the situation.  The Lions just have a huge statistical advantage here on both sides of the ball – and in every sub-facet of the offense and defense.  The Raiders are 28 in DVOA passing, and 32 rushing (reminder, there are 32 teams in the NFL).  Jimmy G should be back tonight but I am not sure what that actually means for the Raiders.  They are almost equally as bad on defense, 21 and 28 against the pass and run.

17, 10, 18, 17, 17, 21, 12.  This is the points scored by the Raiders so far in each game – and there are some pretty bad teams sprinkled in there.  I do not trust Josh McDaniels to solve this and come up with some gameplan to take apart a very good Detroit defense tonight.  If the Raiders are to cover tonight, they will have to do it by holding the Lions to about 20 or less.

But the Lions have a huge matchup advantage on offense, and should be able to run the ball – because the Raiders cant stop anyone rushing.  Goff needs a clean pocket – he is very good when clean but not nearly as good when pressured.  Raiders rank 30 in NFL in pressure rate so Goff should be clean tonight-  even with a patchwork O Line.

So I will be on the Public side, the side with all the injuries, the side that got blown out last week – the obvious play – because quite simply I cant ignore the narrative and stats that back it up – along with a line that has dipped to a place I cant ignore.

Lions 27 - 13

@vanzack

              (edit)sorry for the thick space this took up....still learning...by the way i have a middle set up on this game but live play may save the day once again... 

October rocks! 

Great write up Van! I’m on Detroit as well. The Raiders are garbage. Let’s get this chedda boys!!

@vanzack

 V/zack.........solid write up buddy......

BOL tonight....on them with you.....indy

@vanzack

 I have it 24-10 Lions!

@DefenseWinsSB

 LV stinks 

Thanks Van!

@vanzack

 Personally staying away from this one.  If I were to though, Lions can run the ball, stop the run & the Raiders cannot stop the run.  Lions were taken out of their identity last week early vs Baltimore.  They will establish the run again tonight w/ Gibbs, Reynolds & wouldnt be shocked to see some reverses to Raymond(maybe even a Jamo sighting!).

Crosby is an animal for the Raiders but good luck against Decker & Sewell.

Lions are gonna force Jimmy G to beat him.  I just dont see it.  Go Lions

I’d be careful, the self proclaimed “King of Primetime” is on the Raiders 

First MNF home game in Detroit in 5 years the crowd will be jacked up. GL

The St Brown illness thing has me worried a little - I wonder are guys getting covid and this is the NFL's way of handling just saying 'illness' and that's it. He is a game changer for them, and I imagine the reason the line is down to 7.

But, Josh McDaniels is the biggest dope of a head coach in the NFL. I have no qualms fading him, ever. It's a good schedule spot for the Lions, hopefully there's only treats and no tricks for favorite backers tonite.

@vanzack

 This -7 seems too good and too easy to be true. The lions (even with the injuries) are better at every facet of the game on both sides of the ball, with the exception of Max Crosby. This game screams trap to me. I have a hunch there will be a backdoor cover. I took the bait on the Lions -4 1H. Think the Lions come out strong, but possibly slow down in second half and coast to a 1 score victory. I’m hoping the Lions get up big early and will allow me to live bet Raiders + big points for 2nd half.  

Good luck Vanzack this is looking like last Monday night with San Fran and Minny .Line has gone back down to 7 and everyone is on  the Lions but line dropping not a good sign 

St Brown is playing

Yes, this was the 10 cent line move about 30 minutes ago.

Yeah - I have a hard time coming up with how the Raiders score enough to cover.

Who is this King of Primetime?  Deion Sanders?

St Brown is playing, McDaniels not playing with a full deck.