San Francisco -0.5 first quarter (10 units to win 11.5)
Chicago/San Francisco Under 17 first half (15 units to win 15.75)
Chicago/San Francisco Under 34 (20 units to win 19.05)
San Francisco -3.5 (20 units to win 19.05)
With both starting QBs out of the lineup tonight, the likely prediction from the betting public is that both offenses will struggle moving the ball. This view is a combination of inexperienced signal callers and top flight defenses. In response to the confirmation of Cutler and Smith being out, the lines shifted down 3 points on both the side and the total. As with all significant line movement, people form a rebellious movement to go against the downward shift in the lines. I often times take that position, but tonight, I can’t make any argument for the over. Even with Cutler and Smith in there, I would be heavy on the under tonight. This is not to say Campbell and Kaepernick are not capable, but they are not being thrust into a favorable scenario to have an opportunity at success. The Bears have played five games against teams (Houston, Green Bay, Carolina, Saint Louis and Detroit) who rank in the top half of the NFL for average yards allowed per play. In each one of these games, the Bears average yard per play was notably lower than the opposing defenses yearly average. In fact, in all of these games, the Bears failed to amass 300 yards and averaged 239 yards in total offense. Furthermore, the Bears offense only scored 5 touchdowns over these five games, which works out to exactly one offensive touchdown per game. All of this was with Jay Cutler behind center and yet still the Bears offense struggled to do any damage against teams whose defense limits big plays. San Francisco is in the top half of the league in yards allowed per play and in fact they rank 3rd, which puts them in front of the five teams referenced above.
Flipping this around, San Francisco has played five games against teams (Green Bay, New York Jets, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis) who rank in the bottom half of the league for average yards per play. In these games, the Niners have allowed an average of 228 yards per game for an average of 5 yards per play. In two of these games, Green Bay and St. Louis, their opponent averaged 6+ yards per play and the two teams combined to score 5 touchdowns. In the other three games, the average yard per play was 4.2. In these three games, San Francisco did not allow an offensive touchdown. In all of the five games, SF allowed a total of 5 offensive touchdowns, or one per game, which coincidentally is the same number as Chicago has scored in their scenario. Chicago is in the bottom half of the league for yards per play ranking 25th, which places them as the 3rd worst team in this category that SF will have played to date.
Since Jim Harbaugh took over coaching duties for the 49ers, the defense has really made a statement as the top unit in the league over the last two seasons. Some proof in this can be seen in how the team performs coming off a loss where the Niners are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in such situations over the last two seasons. The W/L record is impressive, but even more remarkable is truly how dominant they have been coming off a loss. Over the last two seasons, covering four games, the Niners have outscored their opponents in the first quarter, first half and game as follows:
1st Quarter: 9-6
1st Half: 28-9
Full Game: 106-17
Now I know San Francisco didn’t lose their last game, but I imagine Coach Harbaugh is approaching it as if they did. I’m confident neither Harbaugh nor the team was content with tying the Rams at home. The above stats don’t apply to tonight’s game, but the mentality of being unsatisfied last week should bring some extra motivation to the locker room. Last week, the 49ers allowed the most yards they have all season by 114 yards, so certainly the defense will want to avenge that performance. Even if you ignore these stats, there is another one that is in play tonight. Over the last two seasons, SF is 6-0 SU in games following ones where they allowed 325 total yards in their previous game. In these six games, the 49ers are outscoring their opponent on average 25.0 to 6.8 and allowing an average of 231.7 yards per game.
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