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#1
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
The dolphins are 30th against the pass this year and are traveling with an 0-4 record to face the New York Jets. New QB Matt Moore is expected to play as well which could be hazardous against the Jets' very good corner-backs but I like the Dolphins for a few reasons. The Jets' run defense has been very pedestrian this year and can't stop anyone. They are giving up 4.9 YPC the past 3 weeks. Vernon Carey is back in the lineup for the Dolphins this game and should be a great help opening up running lanes for Daniel Thomas. With Thomas running effectively, Matt Moore should be able to convert enough 3rd and short's to score some points. I also expect the Jets to be very flat this week. Rex Ryan had that matchup last week against the Patriots circled on his calendar as him and the Jets always give 110% effort in those games. They gave everything they had to win that game and came up short making it a very good possibility they come out flat at home against a desperate Dolphins team coming off a bye. Last year the Jets lost to the Patriots 45-3 and faced the Dolphins the next week as 5.5 point favorites. They ended up losing the game straight up. The Jets always give everything they got into beating the Patriots but when they come up short they are usually very flat the next game. Dolphins have won 4 of the last 5 against the Jets and appear to have their 'number.' I also like that the Dolphins are on the road for this one. Tony Sparano is 18-8 ATS on the road compared to 7-18 ATS at home.
One last thing...
84% of ML bets and 82% of ATS bets have came in on the Jets yet the line has dropped from -8 to -6.5. Very clear where the sharp money is on this one.
Dolphins +7
The dolphins are 30th against the pass this year and are traveling with an 0-4 record to face the New York Jets. New QB Matt Moore is expected to play as well which could be hazardous against the Jets' very good corner-backs but I like the Dolphins for a few reasons. The Jets' run defense has been very pedestrian this year and can't stop anyone. They are giving up 4.9 YPC the past 3 weeks. Vernon Carey is back in the lineup for the Dolphins this game and should be a great help opening up running lanes for Daniel Thomas. With Thomas running effectively, Matt Moore should be able to convert enough 3rd and short's to score some points. I also expect the Jets to be very flat this week. Rex Ryan had that matchup last week against the Patriots circled on his calendar as him and the Jets always give 110% effort in those games. They gave everything they had to win that game and came up short making it a very good possibility they come out flat at home against a desperate Dolphins team coming off a bye. Last year the Jets lost to the Patriots 45-3 and faced the Dolphins the next week as 5.5 point favorites. They ended up losing the game straight up. The Jets always give everything they got into beating the Patriots but when they come up short they are usually very flat the next game. Dolphins have won 4 of the last 5 against the Jets and appear to have their 'number.' I also like that the Dolphins are on the road for this one. Tony Sparano is 18-8 ATS on the road compared to 7-18 ATS at home.
One last thing...
84% of ML bets and 82% of ATS bets have came in on the Jets yet the line has dropped from -8 to -6.5. Very clear where the sharp money is on this one.
Dolphins +7
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