• Covering up defensive deficiencies: Injuries and inconsistent play have haunted the back end of these defenses, especially versus the pass, so the pressure applied by the guys up front is key. Houston has a lot of injuries in the secondary and is especially thin at corner. If the Patriots can spread the field on offense, the Texans might not have the personnel to keep New England contained. If either QB -- Matt Schaub or Tom Brady -- has time to sit in the pocket, expect a lot of big plays.
• Wilfork and Watt must be neutralized: Very few defensive interior players can disrupt a game, but Houston's J.J. Watt and New England's Vince Wilfork can do just that, and both have been almost unblockable in recent weeks. They can line up inside or outside, can move around the line of scrimmage to get good single matchups, and both play with strength and leverage. Watt can disrupt with edge pressure and movement -- his motor may be the best in the game -- and no one does a better job of getting his hands up and deflecting passes. Wilfork is an old-fashioned road-grader with surprising athletic ability and quickness, and he provides that inside pressure and penetration that NFL QBs detest.
• Success on third down is key: Winning on third down is a big deal (on both sides of the ball) and both of these teams are sound in this area. Houston has the best third-down defense in the NFL. When it puts offenses into third-and-long situations, the Texans' D can tee it up and let the pass rush take over. New England is the best third-down offense in the NFL, and it really excels on third-and-short. Obviously, the more possessions you give Brady, the better chance he has to beat you. The Pats' offense versus the Texans' defense on third down is a classic strength-versus-strength proposition. It should be fun to watch.
• Home QB: Brady continues to play at an unbelievably high level and his usually one-dimensional offense has evolved into a balanced attack, with a surprisingly good run game. He had his least-efficient game of the season last week versus Miami, but in fairness, the coaches called a conservative game plan and Miami's defense is pretty good. If he has time to let his receivers get open, Brady can exploit a Houston secondary that is not very healthy, but he is much less effective when defenses are able to provide pressure.
• Away QB: Schaub runs the Texans' offense to perfection. He has the luxury of a terrific zone run game and is the ultimate play-action/bootleg QB. Unlike Brady, he is a good passer on the run. He has excellent short-to-intermediate passing accuracy, can read his progressions and has re-developed his chemistry with WR Andre Johnson. He can make adjustments before and during the play and is the unquestioned leader of this team.
• Key positional battle -- Patriots' OTs vs. Texans' OLBs: The key to Houston's defensive success is its edge pass rush. In Connor Barwin, Brooks Reed (who will miss a couple more games with a groin injury) and rookie Whitney Mercilus, the Texans have three quality edge rushers who beat a lot of offensive tackles with first-step quickness. Pats RT Sebastian Vollmer and LT Nate Solder have held up surprisingly well on the edge, and with the Pats going to a lot of two-tight end formations, they can give their OTs some extra chip help. Also, look for Brady to go with a hurry-up/no-huddle package to prevent Houston from inserting all of its exotic schemes and complex calls. If Brady can keep Houston's D in base packages, it bodes well for the Pats.
• Featured player: Wes Welker is the key to the Patriots' offense right now. When Brady needs a play, Welker is almost impossible to stop out of the slot. Welker dominated Miami's defense in Week 12 with 12 receptions for 103 yards and one TD. With depleted passing weapons because of injuries, Brady may be forced to lean mostly on Welker and TE Aaron Hernandez. The good news for Welker is that this Houston secondary is really thin at corner. The bad news is the Texans can probably afford to use double/bracket coverage on Welker. Brady will need time and patience to let Welker get free and separated.
• Film room nuggets: When you study Houston RB Arian Foster on film, he does a nice job of "pressing" the hole on his runs, and the deeper he gets, the more it draws the defender on the edge back inside. That's when Foster bounces it outside -- reminds you a lot of LaDainian Tomlinson's run style. ... Statistically, the Patriots' D isn't elite, but much like the Packers a year ago, it creates turnovers in bunches. ... The right side of Houston's O-line is the weak link, so the Texans rotate four guys at RG and RT -- and they run more left-handed than in the past -- good coaching adjustments.
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