More Juice - Super Bowl Round 2

Super Bowl Juice

No need to wait any longer to post this, nothing is going to change my perspective on this game over the next week.  Everything has already been said in the forum on this breakdown.  I'll be posting some things in this thread throughout the week that point to both sides but like last week, I'm going with the better QB and coaching staff. Eagles have the advantages in the trenches, much more when they are on offense vs KC dline as opposed to their defense vs. KC's oline (one reason I tend to like the Over). Philly will be able to run the ball efficiently, maybe get a turnover from Mahomes.  They'll have some explosive pass plays downfield to AJ and Devontae.  I expect the game to be tight, as nearly every single KC game is played.  Mahomes will be the difference though, as greatness often shows up under the brightest lights.  Spags is undefeated when going up against a QB not named Tom Brady in the Super Bowl (2-1 vs Brady and 1-0 vs non Brady's).  While collectively Philly is the better team, this is Hurts' first visit to the SB and Mahomes' 3rd.  Mahomes is coming back after losing the last one to Tom.  Tom is retired now.  Maths check out in favor of Patrick.  I like KC's offensive line to hold up well enough that Andy's game plan keeps Mahomes and company in position to win down the stretch and Spags defensive plan creates an opportunity (or more) to make a stand when needed vs Hurts & co.  

Posted: 

Posted: Feb. 4, 2023 - 12:08 PM ET

Will be updating this write up from 2 years ago....

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting/super-bowl-juice-103714216

In no particular order of importance....

First off, the Referees (courtesy Mr. Sharpe) 

Ronnie Tolbert was assigned to be the SB ref before the Conference Championship games kicked off....aka the Chiefs had not yet made the SB when Tolbert was assigned his duty.  

• This is Ron Torbert’s 11th postseason assignment as a head referee.
• Torbert officiated playoff contests have averaged 10.9 penalties for 87.1 yards per game.
• This will be Torbert’s second Super Bowl assignment. His first was the Rams versus Bengals in Super Bowl LVI at the conclusion of the 2021 NFL season.

The Chiefs' last appearance in a Ron Torbert officiated contest was the 2022 AFC Championship against the Bengals.

That game was marred with controversy throughout the fourth quarter, with a third down do-over and lopsided penalty advantage for the home team over the final ten minutes of the game.

Whether by accident or design, the NFL has not assigned Torbert to a Chiefs contest since that game over two years ago.

Technically, Torbert wasn't assigned to this Chiefs game, as his Super Bowl assignment was announced before the AFC Championship Game. 

Umpire/Down Judge/Line Judge  

In addition to head referee Ron Torbert, the three other officials monitoring the area along the line of scrimmage are from the Alex Kemp, John Hussey, and Scott Novak officiating crews.

• False start was not a point of emphasis for this quartet, with their cumulative average below the NFL average.
• These four crews placed above average emphasis on offensive holding compared to the NFL average. However, offensive holding penalties have declined in the playoffs versus regular season averages. Expect minimal calls in this key category on Super Bowl Sunday.
• This quartet ranks below average in calling ineligible man downfield penalties. This has been an issue for Philadelphia this season, so in theory that benefits the Eagles.

The three officials patrolling the back end are from the Tra Blake, Shawn Smith, and Clete Blakeman officiating crews

• This trio had a combined average of 35% of overall penalties assessed on the defense in the 2024 regular season, slightly above average.
• The trio on the back end ranks slightly below average calling defensive pass interference. However, defensive holding was a priority for this trio. That accounted for 6.2% of the crews' combined penalties in 2024, above the league average of 4.9%.

• The Chiefs are averaging 4.5 penalties per game in the playoffs, a decline from the regular season average. The primary factor in the decline? Similar to 2023, it's offensive holding. Don't expect a lot of offensive holding calls in this contest either. If they do call it, the Chiefs are in trouble.
• Offenses accounted for 51.8% of overall penalties in the regular season. Just 47.7% of penalties have been assessed on offensive units in the playoffs. The primary catalyst of the decline is the annual drop in offensive holding penalties.
• Defensive infractions accounted for 34% of regular season penalties. That has increased to 41.7% in the playoffs. Defensive holding calls have increased versus regular season numbers. So has unnecessary roughness.
• Unnecessary roughness penalties have spiked in the playoffs, called at more than double the rate of the regular season. The increase is not surprising. Unnecessary roughness is called at a higher rate in regular season primetime contests. The playoffs are standalone events. The league claims player safety is its No. 1 priority, and high profile games provide the platform to push that narrative via unnecessary roughness calls on questionable plays.
• Officials from four of the five leading crews calling this infraction will be in charge on Super Bowl Sunday. The bottom line is the combined average of this crew makes them more likely than most to call unnecessary roughness penalties.
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Mahomes Rush yds OV/ 29.5  1u 

Mahomes Rush att 6+  -175  1u 

44, 33, 66, 43.  Rush yards in Super Bowls.  Even his 2021 loss with the JV backup oline he went over this number.  Attempts wise he's averaged 9 per in the small 2 game playoff sample this year.  

@kcblitzkrieg

Isn't Spags 2-0 in Superbowls vs not Tom Brady and also isn't this Jalen Hurts 2nd Superbowl not 1st appearance and Mahomes 4th appearance not third? 

And your a KC fan? Sheesh...

@ToneKapone13

 My mistake, I didn't see the date on this. Oh my!! Give it to me!!

@kcblitzkrieg

@ToneKapone13

It's Mahomes' 5th Super Bowl appearance!

@ToneKapone13

all good homie