No need to wait any longer to post this, nothing is going to change my perspective on this game over the next week. Everything has already been said in the forum on this breakdown. I'll be posting some things in this thread throughout the week that point to both sides but like last week, I'm going with the better QB and coaching staff. Eagles have the advantages in the trenches, much more when they are on offense vs KC dline as opposed to their defense vs. KC's oline (one reason I tend to like the Over). Philly will be able to run the ball efficiently, maybe get a turnover from Mahomes. They'll have some explosive pass plays downfield to AJ and Devontae. I expect the game to be tight, as nearly every single KC game is played. Mahomes will be the difference though, as greatness often shows up under the brightest lights. Spags is undefeated when going up against a QB not named Tom Brady in the Super Bowl (2-1 vs Brady and 1-0 vs non Brady's). While collectively Philly is the better team, this is Hurts' first visit to the SB and Mahomes' 3rd. Mahomes is coming back after losing the last one to Tom. Tom is retired now. Maths check out in favor of Patrick. I like KC's offensive line to hold up well enough that Andy's game plan keeps Mahomes and company in position to win down the stretch and Spags defensive plan creates an opportunity (or more) to make a stand when needed vs Hurts & co.
Posted:
Posted: Feb. 4, 2023 - 12:08 PM ET
Will be updating this write up from 2 years ago....
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Super Bowl Juice
No need to wait any longer to post this, nothing is going to change my perspective on this game over the next week. Everything has already been said in the forum on this breakdown. I'll be posting some things in this thread throughout the week that point to both sides but like last week, I'm going with the better QB and coaching staff. Eagles have the advantages in the trenches, much more when they are on offense vs KC dline as opposed to their defense vs. KC's oline (one reason I tend to like the Over). Philly will be able to run the ball efficiently, maybe get a turnover from Mahomes. They'll have some explosive pass plays downfield to AJ and Devontae. I expect the game to be tight, as nearly every single KC game is played. Mahomes will be the difference though, as greatness often shows up under the brightest lights. Spags is undefeated when going up against a QB not named Tom Brady in the Super Bowl (2-1 vs Brady and 1-0 vs non Brady's). While collectively Philly is the better team, this is Hurts' first visit to the SB and Mahomes' 3rd. Mahomes is coming back after losing the last one to Tom. Tom is retired now. Maths check out in favor of Patrick. I like KC's offensive line to hold up well enough that Andy's game plan keeps Mahomes and company in position to win down the stretch and Spags defensive plan creates an opportunity (or more) to make a stand when needed vs Hurts & co.
Posted:
Posted: Feb. 4, 2023 - 12:08 PM ET
Will be updating this write up from 2 years ago....
Ronnie Tolbert was assigned to be the SB ref before the Conference Championship games kicked off....aka the Chiefs had not yet made the SB when Tolbert was assigned his duty.
This is Ron Torbert’s 11th postseason assignment as a head referee.
Torbert officiated playoff contests have averaged 10.9 penalties for 87.1 yards per game.
This will be Torbert’s second Super Bowl assignment. His first was the Rams versus Bengals in Super Bowl LVI at the conclusion of the 2021 NFL season.
The Chiefs' last appearance in a Ron Torbert officiated contest was the 2022 AFC Championship against the Bengals.
That game was marred with controversy throughout the fourth quarter, with a third down do-over and lopsided penalty advantage for the home team over the final ten minutes of the game.
Whether by accident or design, the NFL has not assigned Torbert to a Chiefs contest since that game over two years ago.
Technically, Torbert wasn't assigned to this Chiefs game, as his Super Bowl assignment was announced before the AFC Championship Game.
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In no particular order of importance....
First off, the Referees (courtesy Mr. Sharpe)
Ronnie Tolbert was assigned to be the SB ref before the Conference Championship games kicked off....aka the Chiefs had not yet made the SB when Tolbert was assigned his duty.
This is Ron Torbert’s 11th postseason assignment as a head referee.
Torbert officiated playoff contests have averaged 10.9 penalties for 87.1 yards per game.
This will be Torbert’s second Super Bowl assignment. His first was the Rams versus Bengals in Super Bowl LVI at the conclusion of the 2021 NFL season.
The Chiefs' last appearance in a Ron Torbert officiated contest was the 2022 AFC Championship against the Bengals.
That game was marred with controversy throughout the fourth quarter, with a third down do-over and lopsided penalty advantage for the home team over the final ten minutes of the game.
Whether by accident or design, the NFL has not assigned Torbert to a Chiefs contest since that game over two years ago.
Technically, Torbert wasn't assigned to this Chiefs game, as his Super Bowl assignment was announced before the AFC Championship Game.
In addition to head referee Ron Torbert, the three other officials monitoring the area along the line of scrimmage are from the Alex Kemp, John Hussey, and Scott Novak officiating crews.
False start was not a point of emphasis for this quartet, with their cumulative average below the NFL average.
These four crews placed above average emphasis on offensive holding compared to the NFL average. However, offensive holding penalties have declined in the playoffs versus regular season averages. Expect minimal calls in this key category on Super Bowl Sunday.
This quartet ranks below average in calling ineligible man downfield penalties. This has been an issue for Philadelphia this season, so in theory that benefits the Eagles.
The three officials patrolling the back end are from the Tra Blake, Shawn Smith, and Clete Blakeman officiating crews
This trio had a combined average of 35% of overall penalties assessed on the defense in the 2024 regular season, slightly above average.
The trio on the back end ranks slightly below average calling defensive pass interference. However, defensive holding was a priority for this trio. That accounted for 6.2% of the crews' combined penalties in 2024, above the league average of 4.9%.
The Chiefs are averaging 4.5 penalties per game in the playoffs, a decline from the regular season average. The primary factor in the decline? Similar to 2023, it's offensive holding. Don't expect a lot of offensive holding calls in this contest either. If they do call it, the Chiefs are in trouble.
Offenses accounted for 51.8% of overall penalties in the regular season. Just 47.7% of penalties have been assessed on offensive units in the playoffs. The primary catalyst of the decline is the annual drop in offensive holding penalties.
Defensive infractions accounted for 34% of regular season penalties. That has increased to 41.7% in the playoffs. Defensive holding calls have increased versus regular season numbers. So has unnecessary roughness.
Unnecessary roughness penalties have spiked in the playoffs, called at more than double the rate of the regular season. The increase is not surprising. Unnecessary roughness is called at a higher rate in regular season primetime contests. The playoffs are standalone events. The league claims player safety is its No. 1 priority, and high profile games provide the platform to push that narrative via unnecessary roughness calls on questionable plays.
Officials from four of the five leading crews calling this infraction will be in charge on Super Bowl Sunday. The bottom line is the combined average of this crew makes them more likely than most to call unnecessary roughness penalties.
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Umpire/Down Judge/Line Judge
In addition to head referee Ron Torbert, the three other officials monitoring the area along the line of scrimmage are from the Alex Kemp, John Hussey, and Scott Novak officiating crews.
False start was not a point of emphasis for this quartet, with their cumulative average below the NFL average.
These four crews placed above average emphasis on offensive holding compared to the NFL average. However, offensive holding penalties have declined in the playoffs versus regular season averages. Expect minimal calls in this key category on Super Bowl Sunday.
This quartet ranks below average in calling ineligible man downfield penalties. This has been an issue for Philadelphia this season, so in theory that benefits the Eagles.
The three officials patrolling the back end are from the Tra Blake, Shawn Smith, and Clete Blakeman officiating crews
This trio had a combined average of 35% of overall penalties assessed on the defense in the 2024 regular season, slightly above average.
The trio on the back end ranks slightly below average calling defensive pass interference. However, defensive holding was a priority for this trio. That accounted for 6.2% of the crews' combined penalties in 2024, above the league average of 4.9%.
The Chiefs are averaging 4.5 penalties per game in the playoffs, a decline from the regular season average. The primary factor in the decline? Similar to 2023, it's offensive holding. Don't expect a lot of offensive holding calls in this contest either. If they do call it, the Chiefs are in trouble.
Offenses accounted for 51.8% of overall penalties in the regular season. Just 47.7% of penalties have been assessed on offensive units in the playoffs. The primary catalyst of the decline is the annual drop in offensive holding penalties.
Defensive infractions accounted for 34% of regular season penalties. That has increased to 41.7% in the playoffs. Defensive holding calls have increased versus regular season numbers. So has unnecessary roughness.
Unnecessary roughness penalties have spiked in the playoffs, called at more than double the rate of the regular season. The increase is not surprising. Unnecessary roughness is called at a higher rate in regular season primetime contests. The playoffs are standalone events. The league claims player safety is its No. 1 priority, and high profile games provide the platform to push that narrative via unnecessary roughness calls on questionable plays.
Officials from four of the five leading crews calling this infraction will be in charge on Super Bowl Sunday. The bottom line is the combined average of this crew makes them more likely than most to call unnecessary roughness penalties.
44, 33, 66, 43. Rush yards in Super Bowls. Even his 2021 loss with the JV backup oline he went over this number. Attempts wise he's averaged 9 per in the small 2 game playoff sample this year.
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Mahomes Rush yds OV/ 29.5 1u
Mahomes Rush att 6+ -175 1u
44, 33, 66, 43. Rush yards in Super Bowls. Even his 2021 loss with the JV backup oline he went over this number. Attempts wise he's averaged 9 per in the small 2 game playoff sample this year.
Super Bowl Juice No need to wait any longer to post this, nothing is going to change my perspective on this game over the next week. Everything has already been said in the forum on this breakdown. I'll be posting some things in this thread throughout the week that point to both sides but like last week, I'm going with the better QB and coaching staff. Eagles have the advantages in the trenches, much more when they are on offense vs KC dline as opposed to their defense vs. KC's oline (one reason I tend to like the Over). Philly will be able to run the ball efficiently, maybe get a turnover from Mahomes. They'll have some explosive pass plays downfield to AJ and Devontae. I expect the game to be tight, as nearly every single KC game is played. Mahomes will be the difference though, as greatness often shows up under the brightest lights. Spags is undefeated when going up against a QB not named Tom Brady in the Super Bowl (2-1 vs Brady and 1-0 vs non Brady's). While collectively Philly is the better team, this is Hurts' first visit to the SB and Mahomes' 3rd. Mahomes is coming back after losing the last one to Tom. Tom is retired now. Maths check out in favor of Patrick. I like KC's offensive line to hold up well enough that Andy's game plan keeps Mahomes and company in position to win down the stretch and Spags defensive plan creates an opportunity (or more) to make a stand when needed vs Hurts & co. Posted: Posted: Feb. 4, 2023 - 12:08 PM ET Will be updating this write up from 2 years ago....
Isn't Spags 2-0 in Superbowls vs not Tom Brady and also isn't this Jalen Hurts 2nd Superbowl not 1st appearance and Mahomes 4th appearance not third?
And your a KC fan? Sheesh...
Trees in GreenBay lean to the South because the Vikings BLOW & the Bears frickin SUCK!
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@kcblitzkrieg
Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:
Super Bowl Juice No need to wait any longer to post this, nothing is going to change my perspective on this game over the next week. Everything has already been said in the forum on this breakdown. I'll be posting some things in this thread throughout the week that point to both sides but like last week, I'm going with the better QB and coaching staff. Eagles have the advantages in the trenches, much more when they are on offense vs KC dline as opposed to their defense vs. KC's oline (one reason I tend to like the Over). Philly will be able to run the ball efficiently, maybe get a turnover from Mahomes. They'll have some explosive pass plays downfield to AJ and Devontae. I expect the game to be tight, as nearly every single KC game is played. Mahomes will be the difference though, as greatness often shows up under the brightest lights. Spags is undefeated when going up against a QB not named Tom Brady in the Super Bowl (2-1 vs Brady and 1-0 vs non Brady's). While collectively Philly is the better team, this is Hurts' first visit to the SB and Mahomes' 3rd. Mahomes is coming back after losing the last one to Tom. Tom is retired now. Maths check out in favor of Patrick. I like KC's offensive line to hold up well enough that Andy's game plan keeps Mahomes and company in position to win down the stretch and Spags defensive plan creates an opportunity (or more) to make a stand when needed vs Hurts & co. Posted: Posted: Feb. 4, 2023 - 12:08 PM ET Will be updating this write up from 2 years ago....
Isn't Spags 2-0 in Superbowls vs not Tom Brady and also isn't this Jalen Hurts 2nd Superbowl not 1st appearance and Mahomes 4th appearance not third?
Common breakdown I've seen so far is to compare the differences between the two teams based on their last SB appearance. This isn't surprising to see but there are bigger differences with each of these teams than just Saquon and the Eagles defense.
Coaching: KC is the same. Philly is not. Both OC and DC are much different this time around in Philly. Sure the HC are the same in this matchup but the previous SB both Philly Coordinators were interviewing for their soon to be accepted HC positions. Only Kellen Moore is expected to take a HC position (Saints) after this game while Fangio is not going anywhere. Reid & Spags had the advantage in 23 and they will again have the advantage in this matchup.
Offense: This is an interesting one as the 23 Chiefs were #1 in offensive efficiency (1 pass/10 rush) but were led by a cast of wideouts named Juju, Skyy Moore, MVS and Kadarius Toney. Mahomes goes god mode in the playoffs and just like Jordan, will elevate his teammates to perform at the highest level. This time around KC barely cracked the top 10 in offensive efficiency, coming in 8TH overall, 11TH passing and 12TH rushing. BUT talent wise can be argued this group of Hollywood, Worthy, Hopkins, and a different Juju are an upgrade over the 23 team. Can the Chiefs OUT RUSH the Eagles? Something they did in both of their last two SB wins, out gaining the Niners and Eagles on the ground.
Eagles offense was 3 overall in 2023, coming in 5 in passing and 1 in rushing. They continued this balanced attack in 2025 but are worse overall in ALL categories, 13 overall and 14 passing / 6 rushing. In 23 Hurts was coming off an MVP caliber season, one he probably would’ve won had he not get injured late in the season. Hurts was very good this year but not near the same as he was in 2023, especially in the passing game. Team Rush efficiency dropped but Saquon is the big difference maker this time around as the Eagles did not have any explosive player of that caliber on the 23 team. Yes, Saquon presents great risk to the KC defense, he can obviously take any one carry the distance. Him and Gibbs are about the only ones in the league that great of a threat. KC will not shut him down but they will hope to limit him. McCaffrey last year was a similar risk and actually one that presented more of a matchup problem with KC has SF used CMC in both RB and WR roles. CMC went 22 for 80 on the ground with another 8/80/TD through the air. Moore does not use Saquon in the passing game like Shanny did with CMC. IF he decides to, this would be a great opportunity to try and catch KC off guard. If Saquon has any receiving line close to what CMC did then I’m sure Eagles backers will be happy after this game is over.
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2023 vs. 2025
Common breakdown I've seen so far is to compare the differences between the two teams based on their last SB appearance. This isn't surprising to see but there are bigger differences with each of these teams than just Saquon and the Eagles defense.
Coaching: KC is the same. Philly is not. Both OC and DC are much different this time around in Philly. Sure the HC are the same in this matchup but the previous SB both Philly Coordinators were interviewing for their soon to be accepted HC positions. Only Kellen Moore is expected to take a HC position (Saints) after this game while Fangio is not going anywhere. Reid & Spags had the advantage in 23 and they will again have the advantage in this matchup.
Offense: This is an interesting one as the 23 Chiefs were #1 in offensive efficiency (1 pass/10 rush) but were led by a cast of wideouts named Juju, Skyy Moore, MVS and Kadarius Toney. Mahomes goes god mode in the playoffs and just like Jordan, will elevate his teammates to perform at the highest level. This time around KC barely cracked the top 10 in offensive efficiency, coming in 8TH overall, 11TH passing and 12TH rushing. BUT talent wise can be argued this group of Hollywood, Worthy, Hopkins, and a different Juju are an upgrade over the 23 team. Can the Chiefs OUT RUSH the Eagles? Something they did in both of their last two SB wins, out gaining the Niners and Eagles on the ground.
Eagles offense was 3 overall in 2023, coming in 5 in passing and 1 in rushing. They continued this balanced attack in 2025 but are worse overall in ALL categories, 13 overall and 14 passing / 6 rushing. In 23 Hurts was coming off an MVP caliber season, one he probably would’ve won had he not get injured late in the season. Hurts was very good this year but not near the same as he was in 2023, especially in the passing game. Team Rush efficiency dropped but Saquon is the big difference maker this time around as the Eagles did not have any explosive player of that caliber on the 23 team. Yes, Saquon presents great risk to the KC defense, he can obviously take any one carry the distance. Him and Gibbs are about the only ones in the league that great of a threat. KC will not shut him down but they will hope to limit him. McCaffrey last year was a similar risk and actually one that presented more of a matchup problem with KC has SF used CMC in both RB and WR roles. CMC went 22 for 80 on the ground with another 8/80/TD through the air. Moore does not use Saquon in the passing game like Shanny did with CMC. IF he decides to, this would be a great opportunity to try and catch KC off guard. If Saquon has any receiving line close to what CMC did then I’m sure Eagles backers will be happy after this game is over.
To summarize, I’ll copy and paste from my 23 write up:
“I'm going with the better QB and coaching staff. Eagles have the advantages in the trenches, much more when they are on offense vs KC dline as opposed to their defense vs. KC's oline (one reason I tend to like the Over). Philly will be able to run the ball efficiently, maybe get a turnover from Mahomes. They'll have some explosive pass plays downfield to AJ and Devontae. I expect the game to be tight, as nearly every single KC game is played. Mahomes will be the difference though, as greatness often shows up under the brightest lights.”
So that played out basically to the T. Only adjustment is on “the trenches” as I don’t believe the Eagles have as much of an advantage here. Their offensive line is not as good as 23 grading out in the bottom half of the league at 20 TH in adjusted line yards vs. 6 TH in 2023. Same story with KC, oline was 3 RD in 2023 while 14 TH this year. Defensively different story as well, on to that next…
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To summarize, I’ll copy and paste from my 23 write up:
“I'm going with the better QB and coaching staff. Eagles have the advantages in the trenches, much more when they are on offense vs KC dline as opposed to their defense vs. KC's oline (one reason I tend to like the Over). Philly will be able to run the ball efficiently, maybe get a turnover from Mahomes. They'll have some explosive pass plays downfield to AJ and Devontae. I expect the game to be tight, as nearly every single KC game is played. Mahomes will be the difference though, as greatness often shows up under the brightest lights.”
So that played out basically to the T. Only adjustment is on “the trenches” as I don’t believe the Eagles have as much of an advantage here. Their offensive line is not as good as 23 grading out in the bottom half of the league at 20 TH in adjusted line yards vs. 6 TH in 2023. Same story with KC, oline was 3 RD in 2023 while 14 TH this year. Defensively different story as well, on to that next…
Fangio has been great for Philly and has led this defense to the fewest points and yards given up in the league while coming in #1 overall defensive efficiency while ranking #2 in passing and rush defenses. Extremely balanced on that side of the ball. The young secondary has been retooled while their stout dline is being argued to be better than the Fletcher Cox led 2023 team. That 23 team ranked #3 overall in dvoa, with the #1 ranked pass defense but only 19 in rush. So this year’s Philly dline is much stronger against the RUN but about the same vs the PASS. What this year’s Eagles team is NOT nearly as good is in the pass rush / sacks game. The 23 Eagles led the league with 70 sacks. 70 fell short of the 85 Bears record of 72. This year the Denver Broncos led the league with 63 sacks. This years’ Eagles team tied for 15 in the league with 41 sacks. I wrote about the Bills lack of pass rush before the AFCCG as they had zero qualifiers on that team in pass rush win rate from the edge and only one qualifier on the inside in Ed Oliver. Similarly to the Bills, the Eagles only have one qualifier on the inside and zero on the edge. The lack of elite pass rush will be a problem vs. Mahomes and co.
For the Chiefs, the return of Jaylen Watson from injury has allowed Spags to play with his full arsenal of weapons and deploy his schemes as intended. I wrote about this prior to the playoffs beginning as a big factor in KC’s defense returning to Championship form. They struggled at times thru the year in the passing game after he went on IR week 6/7. All Pro McDuffie was often forced to play on the outside during this time, vs. Spags being able to use him in the slot matchups, which he excels. KC’s defensive unit is fully healthy and playing at its best right now. Chris Jones led the league in interior pass rush win rate and while the Eagles IOL Jurgens and Dickerson are expected to play, their health is currently questionable. KC has 10 sacks in the two playoff games, 30 sacks in their last 8 games but only had 19 in the first 8 games of the year….again, peaking. Hurts had success both in the air and ground the last SB. In all of Hurts playoff losses, he has been forced to throw the ball more than 30 times. Mahomes and KC will look to get the lead, defend the run and make Hurts win through the air. This has been KC’s MO going back to the 2022 run. In regular playoff games they are now 7-0 winning 1H by more than 4 points since the 22 run. They get the lead and then have to beat Spags in passing down situations. A nice recipe for KC but the difference has been in the 4 KC Superbowls, where they have been down at half in each of them.
Other notes:
Philly gave up the least yards / scoring to TE’s on the season but were destroyed by Ertz in the NFCCG and before that the Rams had similar success. This was of course after the Eagles lost LB, and primary TE coverage man, Nakobe Dean to injury. Oren Burks has been his replacement in these last two games and coincidentally, was the back up who replaced Greenlaw in last year’s Super Bowl. Mahomes went on to rush 9 times for 66 yards without Dre in the game while Kelce went 9 for 93. Fangio needs to address this if the Eagles are going to limit Kelce through the air.
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Defense:
Fangio has been great for Philly and has led this defense to the fewest points and yards given up in the league while coming in #1 overall defensive efficiency while ranking #2 in passing and rush defenses. Extremely balanced on that side of the ball. The young secondary has been retooled while their stout dline is being argued to be better than the Fletcher Cox led 2023 team. That 23 team ranked #3 overall in dvoa, with the #1 ranked pass defense but only 19 in rush. So this year’s Philly dline is much stronger against the RUN but about the same vs the PASS. What this year’s Eagles team is NOT nearly as good is in the pass rush / sacks game. The 23 Eagles led the league with 70 sacks. 70 fell short of the 85 Bears record of 72. This year the Denver Broncos led the league with 63 sacks. This years’ Eagles team tied for 15 in the league with 41 sacks. I wrote about the Bills lack of pass rush before the AFCCG as they had zero qualifiers on that team in pass rush win rate from the edge and only one qualifier on the inside in Ed Oliver. Similarly to the Bills, the Eagles only have one qualifier on the inside and zero on the edge. The lack of elite pass rush will be a problem vs. Mahomes and co.
For the Chiefs, the return of Jaylen Watson from injury has allowed Spags to play with his full arsenal of weapons and deploy his schemes as intended. I wrote about this prior to the playoffs beginning as a big factor in KC’s defense returning to Championship form. They struggled at times thru the year in the passing game after he went on IR week 6/7. All Pro McDuffie was often forced to play on the outside during this time, vs. Spags being able to use him in the slot matchups, which he excels. KC’s defensive unit is fully healthy and playing at its best right now. Chris Jones led the league in interior pass rush win rate and while the Eagles IOL Jurgens and Dickerson are expected to play, their health is currently questionable. KC has 10 sacks in the two playoff games, 30 sacks in their last 8 games but only had 19 in the first 8 games of the year….again, peaking. Hurts had success both in the air and ground the last SB. In all of Hurts playoff losses, he has been forced to throw the ball more than 30 times. Mahomes and KC will look to get the lead, defend the run and make Hurts win through the air. This has been KC’s MO going back to the 2022 run. In regular playoff games they are now 7-0 winning 1H by more than 4 points since the 22 run. They get the lead and then have to beat Spags in passing down situations. A nice recipe for KC but the difference has been in the 4 KC Superbowls, where they have been down at half in each of them.
Other notes:
Philly gave up the least yards / scoring to TE’s on the season but were destroyed by Ertz in the NFCCG and before that the Rams had similar success. This was of course after the Eagles lost LB, and primary TE coverage man, Nakobe Dean to injury. Oren Burks has been his replacement in these last two games and coincidentally, was the back up who replaced Greenlaw in last year’s Super Bowl. Mahomes went on to rush 9 times for 66 yards without Dre in the game while Kelce went 9 for 93. Fangio needs to address this if the Eagles are going to limit Kelce through the air.
Patrick Mahomes' career record in NFL playoffs as a favorite of under a FG or an underdog: 8-0 SU 8-0 ATS
Patrick Mahomes has the highest playoff EPA/play of any quarterback since 1999 His 0.317 postseason EPA/play is even better than his 0.278 regular season EPA/play, despite facing stronger defenses
In the postseason, with under a minute left & needing a game-tying or winning score, offenses succeed 40% of the time.
Brady: 5 for 12 (42%) Brees: 3 for 6 (50%)
Patrick Mahomes? Perfect. 7 for 7 (100%). The only QB ever to do it.
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Patrick Mahomes' career record in NFL playoffs as a favorite of under a FG or an underdog: 8-0 SU 8-0 ATS
Patrick Mahomes has the highest playoff EPA/play of any quarterback since 1999 His 0.317 postseason EPA/play is even better than his 0.278 regular season EPA/play, despite facing stronger defenses
In the postseason, with under a minute left & needing a game-tying or winning score, offenses succeed 40% of the time.
Brady: 5 for 12 (42%) Brees: 3 for 6 (50%)
Patrick Mahomes? Perfect. 7 for 7 (100%). The only QB ever to do it.
Posted January 25th, 2021. The day after the "13 seconds" Bills / Chiefs 2021 AFCCG.
"The Bills were not a bad bet yesterday but for reasons different than the narrative this forum was spinning this past week. At the end of the day Chiefs have a Jordanesque player at QB and no body else does.
By Jordanesque I mean he refuses to lose, refuses to let any outside influences doubt his mind...quite the opposite, like Tiger & Jordan, Mahomes takes the slightest slight and turns it into a motivator. If you refuse to acknowledge Mahomes greatness and doubt his inability to quit, doubt his desire to win at all costs and doubt the IMPACT on the teammates around him, then you are just wasting time and denying the inevitability that you will eventually realize...How many Super Bowls and MVPs will it take? Not sure but you'll be doing yourself a favor if you just accept it now."
Now to be fair, the Chiefs went on to get their sh*t pushed in by the Buccs that Super Bowl. We don't need to rehash how bad of a call that was with the Chiefs playing with their backup JV oline, easily one of the worst offensive line unit in SB history. But the message is the same and this was the last time I lost a Chiefs playoff wager. Fully confident in Mahomes being the difference once again, the best player in the world playing his best in the highest leveraged spot in the game.
Will be adding to my AFC lines when KC hits -1 or I can get better than $1.25 on the ML
America First
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Posted January 25th, 2021. The day after the "13 seconds" Bills / Chiefs 2021 AFCCG.
"The Bills were not a bad bet yesterday but for reasons different than the narrative this forum was spinning this past week. At the end of the day Chiefs have a Jordanesque player at QB and no body else does.
By Jordanesque I mean he refuses to lose, refuses to let any outside influences doubt his mind...quite the opposite, like Tiger & Jordan, Mahomes takes the slightest slight and turns it into a motivator. If you refuse to acknowledge Mahomes greatness and doubt his inability to quit, doubt his desire to win at all costs and doubt the IMPACT on the teammates around him, then you are just wasting time and denying the inevitability that you will eventually realize...How many Super Bowls and MVPs will it take? Not sure but you'll be doing yourself a favor if you just accept it now."
Now to be fair, the Chiefs went on to get their sh*t pushed in by the Buccs that Super Bowl. We don't need to rehash how bad of a call that was with the Chiefs playing with their backup JV oline, easily one of the worst offensive line unit in SB history. But the message is the same and this was the last time I lost a Chiefs playoff wager. Fully confident in Mahomes being the difference once again, the best player in the world playing his best in the highest leveraged spot in the game.
Will be adding to my AFC lines when KC hits -1 or I can get better than $1.25 on the ML
Perhaps a snappier title would serve your post well, I mean 'More Juice - Superbowl Round 2' doesn't excite the imaginations of the Covers' readership. I was thinking more along the lines of titling your writeup 'War and Peace' or 'Gone With The Wind'???
The Sunset Kid drove to the beach at sundown. Watching the sun go down brought him luck.
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@kcblitzkrieg
Perhaps a snappier title would serve your post well, I mean 'More Juice - Superbowl Round 2' doesn't excite the imaginations of the Covers' readership. I was thinking more along the lines of titling your writeup 'War and Peace' or 'Gone With The Wind'???
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