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my system picks ... here is one for you this week

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Posted: #1
I do have the Dolphins on one of my super contest cards this week, but as it turned out when I did further analysis, I did not have enough evidence to justify the Dolphins being on my first card, and the one I use for my public record posting. 

Currently, the system, published picks in advance of games here on Covers, is 33-22 for a success rate of 60%. While I cannot endorse the Dolphins for this public posting since getting more data, I still want them to cover this weekend for my second Super Contest card. I will share one pick from the first card now ... and the other 4 closer to kickoff. I am not into giving away the picks to competitors in the contest (if they even care), but I will give one right now ... and here goes:

BEARS +3 (vs. Lions). What do you think? I hate this pick, but my system spit it out ... and it is better than my own judgement usually but it seems horrible. Go Bears LOL

Will post the other 4 later in the week. 
 
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Posted: #2
Well, thank goodness the system sniffed apprehension for my first super contest card (the one used here for public testing of system) , but I did take a loss on my second card with Miami failing to cover. Thoughts about that game? Miami was,much sloppier than expected with new coach Adam Gase. You can't run into the kicker at that point in the game. It was a backbreaking bonehead mental error. While Miami could not protect Tannehill, it is also true that after 4 years Tannehill has still not learned to move well in the pocket. He has no 6th sense when he is about to be hit. All the great quarterbacks are able to wiggle out of trouble, move a little here and there, sidestep, step up, whatever, but Ryan Tannehill just stands there and fumbles. It is sad to watch. Miami should have gone 0-16 and drafted Andrew Luck. They'd be winning big by now rather than trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. I am afraid the Dolphins are doomed to mediocrity until they find a new quarterback.

So the system remains 33-22 tonight after not biting on the Dolphins. it saw a skunk and decided to pass ... lol
 
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Posted: #3
I actually think Tannehill is still pretty good. It would be wrong to judge him from this one game alone even though he did pretty poorly. His performance, however, confirms that he is still quite inconsistent in his abilities. I don't think the OLine helped much either. It's a team loss either way. But I won't rule out Miami for future bets. It was a tough game, in a tough situation. I will say though, and I feel it was overlooked, is the Miami redzone defense. 5 potential touchdowns held to just field goals. Not bad, in my opinion. 
 
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Posted: #4
GL, Sunday smart
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:

I do have the Dolphins on one of my super contest cards this week, but as it turned out when I did further analysis, I did not have enough evidence to justify the Dolphins being on my first card, and the one I use for my public record posting. 

Currently, the system, published picks in advance of games here on Covers, is 33-22 for a success rate of 60%. While I cannot endorse the Dolphins for this public posting since getting more data, I still want them to cover this weekend for my second Super Contest card. I will share one pick from the first card now ... and the other 4 closer to kickoff. I am not into giving away the picks to competitors in the contest (if they even care), but I will give one right now ... and here goes:

BEARS +3 (vs. Lions). What do you think? I hate this pick, but my system spit it out ... and it is better than my own judgement usually but it seems horrible. Go Bears LOL

Will post the other 4 later in the week. 


When my systems put out a play I listen. Many times I might not like the play but the system wins more then not from what I think.

I learned this from many years of doing it.

Yes I do agree with you there.

But what I'm struggling with is if you have a system and the system picks Miami how then can you do additional analysis ?

A system is what it is, any additional anaylsis would then have to be applied equally the same to all previous games to make the record of 33-22 accurate with the same system.

So you judge Miami differently from other games in the system or so it seems that way based on your post.

That does not make any sense.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:



When my systems put out a play I listen. Many times I might not like the play but the system wins more then not from what I think.

I learned this from many years of doing it.

Yes I do agree with you there.

But what I'm struggling with is if you have a system and the system picks Miami how then can you do additional analysis ?

A system is what it is, any additional anaylsis would then have to be applied equally the same to all previous games to make the record of 33-22 accurate with the same system.

So you judge Miami differently from other games in the system or so it seems that way based on your post.

That does not make any sense.

TheClaw,

Allow me to explain. I do an analysis with my system earlier in the week before the Super Contest lines come out. I am in a couple free contests too, and the lines for those come out earlier. When the initial line came out at Miami +7, the system picked Miami clearly, but I knew that I had to wait for the Westgate Super Contest to come out before I made my pick for my first card in the Super Contest. At Miami +7 I correctly deduced that Miami was the pick, but it was not final. And since my system is used to make my picks on card 1, whereas I make picks based on a couple factors for card 2, I went ahead with Miami on card two (in fact the line looked even better to me at +7.5) but since my card one is dedicated for just the system, and the line of the Westgate at +7.5 was different, that slight line adjustment made it so that the Miami pick was no longer one of my top 5 plays. So with the intuition that it might still be a good play (and intuition is allowed for my card 2 picks) I stuck with Miami +7.5 on card 2, but took them off consideration on card 1, which turned out to be correct. Once again, the system trumped my own thoughts. Make sense?

Best of luck to you!
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:

I do have the Dolphins on one of my super contest cards this week, but as it turned out when I did further analysis, I did not have enough evidence to justify the Dolphins being on my first card, and the one I use for my public record posting. 

Currently, the system, published picks in advance of games here on Covers, is 33-22 for a success rate of 60%. While I cannot endorse the Dolphins for this public posting since getting more data, I still want them to cover this weekend for my second Super Contest card. I will share one pick from the first card now ... and the other 4 closer to kickoff. I am not into giving away the picks to competitors in the contest (if they even care), but I will give one right now ... and here goes:

BEARS +3 (vs. Lions). What do you think? I hate this pick, but my system spit it out ... and it is better than my own judgement usually but it seems horrible. Go Bears LOL

Will post the other 4 later in the week. 


 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:


TheClaw,

Allow me to explain. I do an analysis with my system earlier in the week before the Super Contest lines come out. I am in a couple free contests too, and the lines for those come out earlier. When the initial line came out at Miami +7, the system picked Miami clearly, but I knew that I had to wait for the Westgate Super Contest to come out before I made my pick for my first card in the Super Contest. At Miami +7 I correctly deduced that Miami was the pick, but it was not final. And since my system is used to make my picks on card 1, whereas I make picks based on a couple factors for card 2, I went ahead with Miami on card two (in fact the line looked even better to me at +7.5) but since my card one is dedicated for just the system, and the line of the Westgate at +7.5 was different, that slight line adjustment made it so that the Miami pick was no longer one of my top 5 plays. So with the intuition that it might still be a good play (and intuition is allowed for my card 2 picks) I stuck with Miami +7.5 on card 2, but took them off consideration on card 1, which turned out to be correct. Once again, the system trumped my own thoughts. Make sense?

Best of luck to you!


OK, thanks for the response.

How could a better line make a game no play ?

Unless your betting against line movements or a range of where your info tells you  the line should be.


Sometimes a system does not always have to make sense to work., Applying common sense to many things in life does not always work, but if it makes sense to you and most importantly if it works then that is the best indicator of all.

It seems to work fairly well.  
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:

TheClaw,Allow me to explain. I do an analysis with my system earlier in the week before the Super Contest lines come out. I am in a couple free contests too, and the lines for those come out earlier. When the initial line came out at Miami +7, the system picked Miami clearly, but I knew that I had to wait for the Westgate Super Contest to come out before I made my pick for my first card in the Super Contest. At Miami +7 I correctly deduced that Miami was the pick, but it was not final. And since my system is used to make my picks on card 1, whereas I make picks based on a couple factors for card 2, I went ahead with Miami on card two (in fact the line looked even better to me at +7.5) but since my card one is dedicated for just the system, and the line of the Westgate at +7.5 was different, that slight line adjustment made it so that the Miami pick was no longer one of my top 5 plays. So with the intuition that it might still be a good play (and intuition is allowed for my card 2 picks) I stuck with Miami +7.5 on card 2, but took them off consideration on card 1, which turned out to be correct. Once again, the system trumped my own thoughts. Make sense?Best of luck to you!
OK, thanks for the response.How could a better line make a game no play ?Unless your betting against line movements or a range of where your info tells you  the line should be.Sometimes a system does not always have to make sense to work., Applying common sense to many things in life does not always work, but if it makes sense to you and most importantly if it works then that is the best indicator of all.It seems to work fairly well.

U are absolutely right on both counts. The line is critically important and often it makes no sense. I have a massive database of games evaluated 10,000 ways with proper statistical insight :-) ... it took years to build. It is much smarter than my intuition.
 
 
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Posted: #10
As a technical handicapper, sometimes you can get a false positive with a result. A few seasons back, I had two teams that were like whack-a-moles. Just looking at the numbers, I knew something was out of balance when analyzing those two teams.

 
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