I have the Falcons @ 100-1 for $100 to win the Superbowl. How do I middle it with two games left? Tickets worth $10,000 if they win.... was curious my middling options to win something if they don't? I've done the basic math and there's alot of options (betting Pack money line/spread, betting Pack to win Superbowl now, pre-betting superbowl odds now...exc). I really think Atlanta will beat the Pack to get in the final...... but im not that stupid greedy and want to make a smart middle bet so I at least take home some dough. Letting it all ride seems really stupid. What would you do Covers forum? Thanks in advance for the advice..... FYI the biggest bet I made this year was $500 (once).... I usually bet about $200 a NFL weekend.
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I have the Falcons @ 100-1 for $100 to win the Superbowl. How do I middle it with two games left? Tickets worth $10,000 if they win.... was curious my middling options to win something if they don't? I've done the basic math and there's alot of options (betting Pack money line/spread, betting Pack to win Superbowl now, pre-betting superbowl odds now...exc). I really think Atlanta will beat the Pack to get in the final...... but im not that stupid greedy and want to make a smart middle bet so I at least take home some dough. Letting it all ride seems really stupid. What would you do Covers forum? Thanks in advance for the advice..... FYI the biggest bet I made this year was $500 (once).... I usually bet about $200 a NFL weekend.
Honestly, @$100 I'd let it ride for this game still. Assuming Falcons make it to the SB, you can hedge for half the value if you feel it necessary.
If you feel you must hedge though, there's 4 teams left so I would put something like $2000-$2600 down on the Pack. Subsequently split the difference of what is left on payout value to hedge the SB if it comes to that. That would likely guarantee you $3000-$4000.
Still though, if your gut tells you that Falcons will beat the Pack this weekend... you're probably right. Just gotta trust yourself sometimes.
Best of luck to you and congrats on the ticket
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Honestly, @$100 I'd let it ride for this game still. Assuming Falcons make it to the SB, you can hedge for half the value if you feel it necessary.
If you feel you must hedge though, there's 4 teams left so I would put something like $2000-$2600 down on the Pack. Subsequently split the difference of what is left on payout value to hedge the SB if it comes to that. That would likely guarantee you $3000-$4000.
Still though, if your gut tells you that Falcons will beat the Pack this weekend... you're probably right. Just gotta trust yourself sometimes.
If you play packers + the points.... Falcons win by a field goal. You win your packers bet and your future moves on to the next round. Only way I see it. Play packers + the points and hope for the middle.
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If you play packers + the points.... Falcons win by a field goal. You win your packers bet and your future moves on to the next round. Only way I see it. Play packers + the points and hope for the middle.
1, how confident you are in the Falcons is key. If you are looking at this game thinking "Christ, I would bet GB here if I didn't have this prop going," you might want to hedge a lot more than say a few hundred to recoup your prop losses and pocket a couple guaranteed bucks.
2, GB getting 6 really opens up a nice spot to middle and really make a killing so that changes things compared to Atlanta being a big dog and leaving you in a spot where you eat -200+ to recoup a bunch or just let it ride.
3, how much is 10k to u?? To me, that's a huge deal. If you bet 1,000 a game all season, 10 units isn't a big deal and in that case, I say let it ride.
But assuming 10k is a big hit in your world. I throw maybe 1,500 on GB +6.
- If Atlanta blows the door off them(and if you believe that u can lighten up on 1500to maybe 500), you still have a 8500 dollar prop riding.
- If Green Bay upsets, you just made a nice 1,400 bucks. Nothing to scoff at once you get over the fact that you were two games from a much bigger payday.
- The jackpot. Atlanta wins by 1-5 point and you catch a middle. 1500 in your pocket. Prop still locked and loaded in the Super Bowl in two weeks.
I go for the middle opportunity and drop 1500-2000 on GB +6 here.
GL whatever u do.
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Pardon me if someone already said what I did.
How I would handle your hedge.....
1, how confident you are in the Falcons is key. If you are looking at this game thinking "Christ, I would bet GB here if I didn't have this prop going," you might want to hedge a lot more than say a few hundred to recoup your prop losses and pocket a couple guaranteed bucks.
2, GB getting 6 really opens up a nice spot to middle and really make a killing so that changes things compared to Atlanta being a big dog and leaving you in a spot where you eat -200+ to recoup a bunch or just let it ride.
3, how much is 10k to u?? To me, that's a huge deal. If you bet 1,000 a game all season, 10 units isn't a big deal and in that case, I say let it ride.
But assuming 10k is a big hit in your world. I throw maybe 1,500 on GB +6.
- If Atlanta blows the door off them(and if you believe that u can lighten up on 1500to maybe 500), you still have a 8500 dollar prop riding.
- If Green Bay upsets, you just made a nice 1,400 bucks. Nothing to scoff at once you get over the fact that you were two games from a much bigger payday.
- The jackpot. Atlanta wins by 1-5 point and you catch a middle. 1500 in your pocket. Prop still locked and loaded in the Super Bowl in two weeks.
I go for the middle opportunity and drop 1500-2000 on GB +6 here.
middle the bet at +110 with +4 points....no brainer...put 2000 on it if packers lose by 3 you keep your bet and an extra 2200...if they lose you just won 2200 off of 10...you win big either way..with a chance to win huge
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middle the bet at +110 with +4 points....no brainer...put 2000 on it if packers lose by 3 you keep your bet and an extra 2200...if they lose you just won 2200 off of 10...you win big either way..with a chance to win huge
thanks everyone for the advice...... @Bmarlin thats the math i was looking for!!!, thanks again. Atlanta was 100-1 at William Hill (Vegas Sportsbooks) for a few days, that's where I got it (AUG 29th). There is a few other 100-1 tickets out there as well. One sold on prop swap before Seahawks game for $900 FYI. Falcons opened at 50-1 to 60-1 at most books here (Vegas)....
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thanks everyone for the advice...... @Bmarlin thats the math i was looking for!!!, thanks again. Atlanta was 100-1 at William Hill (Vegas Sportsbooks) for a few days, that's where I got it (AUG 29th). There is a few other 100-1 tickets out there as well. One sold on prop swap before Seahawks game for $900 FYI. Falcons opened at 50-1 to 60-1 at most books here (Vegas)....
FYI....Propswap just sent me an email valuing the ticket at $2,850. That's around what they thought it would sell at if I listed it with them......not doing that.
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FYI....Propswap just sent me an email valuing the ticket at $2,850. That's around what they thought it would sell at if I listed it with them......not doing that.
I def wouldn't... ''LEt it ride'' Cause they realistcially have a 4 to 5 to 1 shot at winning the super bowl if u ask me.. You're still a big dog.. U should only let it rid if you're b ig fav to win not a big underdog..
Ummmm Falcons are 2nd most favored team to lift the trophy this year, right behind the Pats sooo ATL is not really one of the dogs remaining. That is according to the books.
I'd say letting it ride for the game tomorrow is not a bad option at all. Sure, there is always going to be the chance that Falcons blow it but I'd say there is a greater chance that Falcons find themselves in Houston come February. Current line action also backs that opinion.
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Quote Originally Posted by loserforeverz:
I def wouldn't... ''LEt it ride'' Cause they realistcially have a 4 to 5 to 1 shot at winning the super bowl if u ask me.. You're still a big dog.. U should only let it rid if you're b ig fav to win not a big underdog..
Ummmm Falcons are 2nd most favored team to lift the trophy this year, right behind the Pats sooo ATL is not really one of the dogs remaining. That is according to the books.
I'd say letting it ride for the game tomorrow is not a bad option at all. Sure, there is always going to be the chance that Falcons blow it but I'd say there is a greater chance that Falcons find themselves in Houston come February. Current line action also backs that opinion.
not to over think it (I already have) and taken all advice into consideration I'm laying $1,000 on the Packers at +6 hoping for the middle and keep my Falcons ticket alive! Thanks Covers forum and @glyde69 for the input.
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not to over think it (I already have) and taken all advice into consideration I'm laying $1,000 on the Packers at +6 hoping for the middle and keep my Falcons ticket alive! Thanks Covers forum and @glyde69 for the input.
Pardon me if someone already said what I did. How I would handle your hedge.....1, how confident you are in the Falcons is key. If you are looking at this game thinking "Christ, I would bet GB here if I didn't have this prop going," you might want to hedge a lot more than say a few hundred to recoup your prop losses and pocket a couple guaranteed bucks. 2, GB getting 6 really opens up a nice spot to middle and really make a killing so that changes things compared to Atlanta being a big dog and leaving you in a spot where you eat -200+ to recoup a bunch or just let it ride. 3, how much is 10k to u?? To me, that's a huge deal. If you bet 1,000 a game all season, 10 units isn't a big deal and in that case, I say let it ride. But assuming 10k is a big hit in your world. I throw maybe 1,500 on GB +6. - If Atlanta blows the door off them(and if you believe that u can lighten up on 1500to maybe 500), you still have a 8500 dollar prop riding. - If Green Bay upsets, you just made a nice 1,400 bucks. Nothing to scoff at once you get over the fact that you were two games from a much bigger payday. - The jackpot. Atlanta wins by 1-5 point and you catch a middle. 1500 in your pocket. Prop still locked and loaded in the Super Bowl in two weeks. I go for the middle opportunity and drop 1500-2000 on GB +6 here. GL whatever u do.
This
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Pardon me if someone already said what I did. How I would handle your hedge.....1, how confident you are in the Falcons is key. If you are looking at this game thinking "Christ, I would bet GB here if I didn't have this prop going," you might want to hedge a lot more than say a few hundred to recoup your prop losses and pocket a couple guaranteed bucks. 2, GB getting 6 really opens up a nice spot to middle and really make a killing so that changes things compared to Atlanta being a big dog and leaving you in a spot where you eat -200+ to recoup a bunch or just let it ride. 3, how much is 10k to u?? To me, that's a huge deal. If you bet 1,000 a game all season, 10 units isn't a big deal and in that case, I say let it ride. But assuming 10k is a big hit in your world. I throw maybe 1,500 on GB +6. - If Atlanta blows the door off them(and if you believe that u can lighten up on 1500to maybe 500), you still have a 8500 dollar prop riding. - If Green Bay upsets, you just made a nice 1,400 bucks. Nothing to scoff at once you get over the fact that you were two games from a much bigger payday. - The jackpot. Atlanta wins by 1-5 point and you catch a middle. 1500 in your pocket. Prop still locked and loaded in the Super Bowl in two weeks. I go for the middle opportunity and drop 1500-2000 on GB +6 here. GL whatever u do.
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